Edmonton OilersEDM 2–4 Final Detroit Red WingsDET

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM 011 2 18
Detroit Red WingsDET 031 4 25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
8:51 DET Dylan Larkin (4) Ben Chiarot (2), Lucas Raymond (2) · tip-in xG 0.07 0–1 ▶
11:54 DET Emmitt Finnie (1) Jacob Bernard-Docker (1), Dylan Larkin (5) · wrist xG 0.39 0–2 ▶
12:25 EDM Noah Philp (2) Vasily Podkolzin (2), Brett Kulak (1) · tip-in xG 0.08 1–2 ▶
17:05 DET Dylan Larkin (5) Emmitt Finnie (3), John Gibson (1) · wrist xG 0.01 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
7:33 EDM Leon Draisaitl (4) Brett Kulak (2), Mattias Ekholm (1) · snap xG 0.21 2–3 ▶
18:38 DET Emmitt Finnie (2)EN Lucas Raymond (3), Dylan Larkin (6) · wrist xG 0.57 2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 43%Deserve to win57% DET
EDMDET
1.88Expected goals2.77
2Goals (no shootout)4
1.64Expected goals, 5 on 52.21
44Shot attempts61
31Unblocked attempts39
18Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
13:00 EDM No shift No shift · Kapanen, 36:48 on the bench
No shift after 0:42 of the 2nd; 8 shifts (5:43) before that
3rd Period
18:22 EDM Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 3–2
With 1:38 left; DET scored at 18:38 of the 3rd (2–4)

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots
Moritz Seider: wrist, 183 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:15) Darnell Nurse: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:45) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:50) Mason Appleton: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:12) Andrew Copp: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 2:27) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:26) Emmitt Finnie: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:42) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:48) Marco Kasper: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 8:34) Darnell Nurse: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:01) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:44) Isaac Howard: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:04) Leon Draisaitl: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:09) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:23) Jacob Bernard-Docker: snap, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:28) Jonatan Berggren: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:49) Michael Rasmussen: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:17) Andrew Copp: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:19) James van Riemsdyk: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:17) Andrew Copp: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:18) Andrew Mangiapane: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:13) Mattias Ekholm: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 1:15) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:11) Alex DeBrincat: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:20) Trent Frederic: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:41) Mason Appleton: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:17) Isaac Howard: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:34) Matt Savoie: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:37) Ty Emberson: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:39) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:17) Moritz Seider: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:38) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 142 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:14) Evan Bouchard: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:20) Leon Draisaitl: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:27) Evan Bouchard: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:13) Jacob Bernard-Docker: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:51) Vasily Podkolzin: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:10) Emmitt Finnie: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 13:50) Connor McDavid: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:10) Matt Savoie: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:11) J.T. Compher: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:38) Michael Brandsegg-Nygård: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:03) Albert Johansson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:14) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:55) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:00) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:09) Andrew Mangiapane: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:48) Ty Emberson: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:00) Dylan Larkin: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:03) Evan Bouchard: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:36) Darnell Nurse: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:56) Ty Emberson: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:04) Connor McDavid: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:20) James van Riemsdyk: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 12:00) Emmitt Finnie: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 12:40) Michael Brandsegg-Nygård: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:05) Simon Edvinsson: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:13) Matt Savoie: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:55) Troy Stecher: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:10) Mattias Ekholm: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:38) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:11) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 173 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:07) Adam Henrique: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:06) J.T. Compher: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:44) Dylan Larkin: GOAL, tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:51) Emmitt Finnie: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.39 (P2 11:54) Noah Philp: GOAL, tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:25) Dylan Larkin: GOAL, wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:05) Leon Draisaitl: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 7:33) Emmitt Finnie: GOAL, wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.57 (P3 18:38)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Connor McDavid 000 -2 40.15 0122:04
29 Leon Draisaitl 101 -1 30.38 1020:33
96 Jack Roslovic 000 -1 10.00 0018:51
26 Andrew Mangiapane 000 0 20.16 0117:42
92 Vasily Podkolzin 011 +1 20.07 5017:11
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 000 -1 10.00 1015:42
22 Matt Savoie 000 0 30.20 0014:47
19 Adam Henrique 000 -1 10.02 1213:51
15 Noah Philp 101 +1 10.08 2012:26
53 Isaac Howard 000 -1 30.15 0012:00
10 Trent Frederic 000 -2 10.04 2011:21
42 Kasperi Kapanen 000 0 10.00 3105:43
Defense
2 Evan Bouchard 000 -2 50.17 1223:07
25 Darnell Nurse 000 -2 70.09 2521:15
14 Mattias Ekholm 011 -3 30.26 0419:59
27 Brett Kulak 022 +2 10.00 0119:13
49 Ty Emberson 000 +1 30.09 1318:31
28 Troy Stecher 000 0 20.03 0116:00
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 24321 .875 2.21 -0.79

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
58 Emmitt Finnie 213 +3 51.26 4019:25
71 Dylan Larkin 224 +3 70.17 0019:11
23 Lucas Raymond 022 +2 00.00 0117:20
92 Marco Kasper 000 0 30.13 2116:58
93 Alex DeBrincat 000 0 70.25 0015:12
22 Mason Appleton 000 0 20.02 0114:56
37 J.T. Compher 000 -1 20.05 1013:59
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 -1 10.06 2011:48
27 Michael Rasmussen 000 0 20.12 0111:44
18 Andrew Copp 000 0 30.25 1011:36
21 James van Riemsdyk 000 0 40.28 0011:22
Defense
53 Moritz Seider 000 +1 40.02 5023:45
77 Simon Edvinsson 000 +1 30.06 2323:03
8 Ben Chiarot 011 +1 10.00 1023:01
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka 000 +1 30.03 0219:37
20 Albert Johansson 000 0 50.02 2115:38
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 011 0 30.01 1115:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
John Gibson 18216 .889 1.88 -0.12

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Brett Kulak D +2.36 +1.25 0.00 +1.04 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:13
92 Vasily Podkolzin R +1.29 +0.70 +0.04 +0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:11
29 Leon Draisaitl C +1.24 +0.75 +0.25 +0.25 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 20:33
48 Noah Philp C +0.83 +0.75 +0.05 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:26
49 Ty Emberson D +0.74 0.00 +0.06 +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 18:31
88 Andrew Mangiapane L +0.20 0.00 +0.10 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:42
97 Connor McDavid C +0.14 0.00 +0.10 +0.07 0.00 -0.06 +0.03 — 22:04
14 Mattias Ekholm D +0.14 +0.55 +0.17 -0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.16 — 19:59
22 Matt Savoie C +0.04 0.00 +0.13 -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:47
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 — 15:42
53 Isaac Howard L -0.18 0.00 +0.10 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 12:00
42 Kasperi Kapanen R -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 5:43
2 Evan Bouchard D -0.26 0.00 +0.11 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 23:07
19 Adam Henrique C -0.59 0.00 +0.01 -0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 13:51
51 Troy Stecher D -0.66 0.00 +0.02 -0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:00
28 Jack Roslovic C -0.70 0.00 0.00 -0.83 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:51
74 Stuart Skinner G -0.79 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.79 59:44
25 Darnell Nurse D -0.99 0.00 +0.06 -1.25 0.00 0.00 +0.21 — 21:15
10 Trent Frederic C -1.05 0.00 +0.02 -1.09 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 11:21

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
58 Emmitt Finnie C +3.44 +2.20 +0.82 +0.41 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:25
71 Dylan Larkin C +3.12 +2.60 +0.11 +0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:11
23 Lucas Raymond L +1.61 +1.25 0.00 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 17:20
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D +1.29 +0.70 +0.01 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:14
8 Ben Chiarot D +0.74 +0.70 0.00 +0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:01
77 Simon Edvinsson D +0.69 0.00 +0.04 +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 23:03
20 Albert Johansson D +0.58 0.00 +0.02 +0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:38
28 Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R +0.57 0.00 +0.03 +0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:11
92 Marco Kasper C +0.55 0.00 +0.08 +0.44 0.00 +0.04 -0.01 — 16:58
93 Alex DeBrincat R +0.55 0.00 +0.16 +0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:12
36 John Gibson G +0.43 +0.55 — — 0.00 — — -0.12 60:00
21 James van Riemsdyk L +0.43 0.00 +0.18 +0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:22
27 Michael Rasmussen C +0.36 0.00 +0.08 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:44
18 Andrew Copp C +0.34 0.00 +0.16 +0.33 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:36
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D +0.20 0.00 +0.02 +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:37
53 Moritz Seider D -0.18 0.00 +0.01 -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:45
22 Mason Appleton C -0.30 0.00 +0.01 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:56
37 J.T. Compher L -0.31 0.00 +0.04 -0.35 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 13:59
48 Jonatan Berggren R -0.32 0.00 +0.04 -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:48

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.