Buffalo SabresBUF 2–4 Final Montréal CanadiensMTL

Monday, October 20, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	0	1	1	2	32
Montréal CanadiensMTL	1	0	3	4	32

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:29	MTL	Oliver Kapanen (4) Ivan Demidov (4), Alex Newhook (2) · backhand xG 0.15	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
6:51	BUF	Jiri Kulich (2) Zach Benson (6) · backhand xG 0.15	1–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:57	MTL	Juraj Slafkovský (3) Noah Dobson (3), Nick Suzuki (8) · snap xG 0.20	1–2 ▶
11:38	MTL	Lane Hutson (1) Alex Newhook (3) · wrist xG 0.14	1–3 ▶
12:30	BUF	Tyson Kozak (1) Jack Quinn (1), Rasmus Dahlin (5) · snap xG 0.32	2–3 ▶
19:29	MTL	Jake Evans (1)EN Nick Suzuki (9) · snap xG 0.64	2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 72%Deserve to win28% MTL

BUF		MTL
4.49	Expected goals	3.70
2	Goals (no shootout)	4
3.38	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.52
73	Shot attempts	59
51	Unblocked attempts	47
32	Shots on goal	32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
2:40	BUF	No shift	No shift · Geertsen, 13:44 on the bench No shift from 10:31 of the 2nd to 6:19 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (4:36) before that
11:55	MTL	Goalie	Goalie · Dobes +2.2 goals saved 1 goal on 3.24 xG, 25 shots on goal
12:30	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 62–38% MTL had led since 4:48 of the 1st, by as much as 73%
16:49	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Lyon, down 3–2 With 3:11 left
18:50	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced MTL 1.81–0.28 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:30 to 19:30 of the 3rd; goals 1–2

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MTL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
6	Zach Benson	0	1	1	-1	7	0.56	1	0	21:11
72	Tage Thompson	0	0	0	-2	10	0.54	2	1	20:18
89	Alex Tuch	0	0	0	-1	3	0.54	0	0	20:08
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	-1	3	0.20	1	1	19:58
20	Jiri Kulich	1	0	1	0	6	0.24	0	0	18:00
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	0	5	0.52	1	1	15:53
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	4	1	13:29
22	Jack Quinn	0	1	1	0	2	0.09	0	0	13:17
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	-2	2	0.01	0	0	12:35
48	Tyson Kozak	1	0	1	+1	3	0.37	2	0	10:59
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	0	2	0.27	1	0	06:35
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	1	1	-1	15	0.30	0	0	26:52
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	+1	4	0.55	0	1	23:07
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	-2	5	0.23	1	0	21:17
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	2	2	19:13
21	Conor Timmins	0	0	0	-2	2	0.02	0	1	18:47
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	1	09:02

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Lyon	31	3	28	.903	2.99	-0.01

Montréal Canadiens

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Nick Suzuki	0	2	2	+2	5	0.33	0	1	21:37
71	Jake Evans	1	0	1	+1	8	1.11	2	2	18:16
13	Cole Caufield	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	3	0	17:48
20	Juraj Slafkovský	1	0	1	+1	4	0.31	3	1	17:17
17	Josh Anderson	0	0	0	+2	5	0.31	2	1	15:55
7	Brendan Gallagher	0	0	0	0	5	0.30	1	0	15:46
15	Alex Newhook	0	2	2	+1	1	0.00	1	2	15:44
91	Oliver Kapanen	1	0	1	0	2	0.28	1	0	12:34
93	Ivan Demidov	0	1	1	0	1	0.09	0	0	12:27
76	Zachary Bolduc	0	0	0	-1	3	0.23	2	0	11:03
90	Joseph Veleno	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	2	1	09:27
62	Owen Beck	0	0	0	-1	3	0.03	0	1	08:01
Defense
8	Mike Matheson	0	0	0	+2	3	0.09	2	4	26:30
53	Noah Dobson	0	1	1	+1	3	0.09	0	1	20:46
48	Lane Hutson	1	0	1	0	2	0.15	0	1	19:59
3	Jayden Struble	0	0	0	+1	4	0.17	2	1	19:09
45	Alexandre Carrier	0	0	0	+1	5	0.13	0	5	18:36
72	Arber Xhekaj	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	0	13:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jakub Dobes	32	2	30	.938	4.49	+2.49

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
48 Tyson Kozak C	+1.83	+0.75	+0.24	+0.80	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	10:59
6 Zach Benson L	+1.40	+0.70	+0.36	+0.54	-0.15	-0.01	-0.04	—	21:11
91 Josh Doan R	+1.26	0.00	+0.34	+0.89	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:53
20 Jiri Kulich C	+1.25	+0.75	+0.16	+0.38	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	18:00
71 Ryan McLeod C	+1.02	0.00	+0.13	+0.87	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	19:58
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.98	0.00	+0.35	+0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:07
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+0.96	+0.55	+0.19	+0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	26:52
22 Jack Quinn R	+0.81	+0.70	+0.06	+0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:17
89 Alex Tuch R	+0.64	0.00	+0.35	+0.31	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:08
25 Owen Power D	+0.43	0.00	+0.15	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	21:17
73 Zach Metsa D	+0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.35	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	9:02
72 Tage Thompson C	+0.39	0.00	+0.35	+0.05	0.00	-0.04	+0.03	—	20:18
44 Josh Dunne C	+0.37	0.00	+0.18	+0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:35
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+0.26	0.00	+0.04	+0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	19:13
55 Mason Geertsen L	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	5:27
34 Alex Lyon G	+0.14	0.00	—	—	+0.15	—	—	-0.01	57:52
21 Conor Timmins D	+0.07	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:47
19 Peyton Krebs C	-0.58	0.00	+0.01	-0.63	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	13:29
17 Jason Zucker L	-1.29	0.00	+0.01	-1.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:35

Montréal Canadiens

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
75 Jakub Dobes G	+2.49	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.49	59:57
14 Nick Suzuki C	+1.71	+1.25	+0.22	+0.17	0.00	+0.04	+0.03	—	21:37
53 Noah Dobson D	+1.46	+0.70	+0.06	+0.65	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:46
15 Alex Newhook C	+1.25	+1.25	0.00	-0.11	0.00	+0.01	+0.10	—	15:44
20 Juraj Slafkovský L	+1.17	+0.75	+0.20	+0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:17
71 Jake Evans C	+1.09	+0.75	+0.72	-0.50	0.00	+0.03	+0.08	—	18:16
93 Ivan Demidov R	+0.86	+0.70	+0.06	+0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:27
91 Oliver Kapanen C	+0.83	+0.75	+0.18	-0.07	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	—	12:34
8 Mike Matheson D	+0.79	0.00	+0.06	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	26:30
13 Cole Caufield R	+0.50	0.00	+0.04	+0.31	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:48
17 Josh Anderson R	+0.29	0.00	+0.20	+0.05	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	15:55
45 Alexandre Carrier D	-0.21	0.00	+0.09	-0.54	0.00	0.00	+0.25	—	18:36
48 Lane Hutson D	-0.23	+0.75	+0.10	-1.09	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	19:59
47 Jayden Struble D	-0.24	0.00	+0.11	-0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	19:09
90 Joseph Veleno C	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	9:27
62 Owen Beck C	-0.52	0.00	+0.02	-0.58	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	8:01
11 Brendan Gallagher R	-0.61	0.00	+0.19	-0.68	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	15:46
76 Zachary Bolduc R	-0.70	0.00	+0.15	-0.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:03
72 Arber Xhekaj D	-0.74	0.00	+0.01	-0.75	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:08

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.