hockeystats.io

New Jersey DevilsNJD 5–2 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
New Jersey DevilsNJD 041 5 35
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 110 2 25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:36 TOR John Tavares (4) Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4), William Nylander (10) · bat xG 0.27 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:27 NJD Jack Hughes (4) Jesper Bratt (5), Brett Pesce (3) · wrist xG 0.07 1–1 ▶
3:20 NJD Cody Glass (2)PP Timo Meier (3), Luke Hughes (5) · wrist xG 0.39 2–1 ▶
4:54 NJD Brenden Dillon (1) Luke Glendening (2), Arseny Gritsyuk (4) · wrist xG 0.19 3–1 ▶
7:03 TOR Matias Maccelli (1) William Nylander (11), John Tavares (5) · snap xG 0.17 3–2 ▶
16:17 NJD Jack Hughes (5) Jesper Bratt (6), Simon Nemec (3) · slap xG 0.13 4–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:30 NJD Jack Hughes (6)EN Jesper Bratt (7) · wrist xG 0.57 5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NJD 55%Deserve to win45% TOR
NJDTOR
3.93Expected goals3.03
5Goals (no shootout)2
2.28Expected goals, 5 on 52.20
63Shot attempts58
46Unblocked attempts39
35Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
13:20 TOR No shift No shift · Tanev, 30:28 on the bench
No shift after 1:53 of the 2nd; 10 shifts (5:57) before that
3rd Period
17:51 TOR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Stolarz, down 4–2
With 2:09 left; NJD scored at 19:30 of the 3rd (5–2)

Shot map

NJD shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Morgan Rielly: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:53) Dawson Mercer: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 1:24) Brenden Dillon: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:59) Bobby McMann: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:29) Jack Hughes: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:15) Luke Hughes: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:36) Jack Hughes: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:44) Brett Pesce: bat, 18 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 8:47) Paul Cotter: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 8:57) Matthew Knies: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.33 (P1 10:33) Nico Hischier: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:31) Nick Robertson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:30) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:33) Paul Cotter: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:09) Paul Cotter: tip-in, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:23) Cody Glass: bat, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:16) John Tavares: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:46) Jake McCabe: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:18) Simon Benoit: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:18) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:32) Jesper Bratt: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:07) Nico Hischier: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:44) Dawson Mercer: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:51) Dawson Mercer: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 1:52) Dawson Mercer: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 1:59) Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:08) Timo Meier: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:17) Matias Maccelli: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:08) Matias Maccelli: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:10) Max Domi: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:22) Dawson Mercer: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 5:40) Matias Maccelli: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:43) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:46) Dougie Hamilton: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:27) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:30) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:37) Matthew Knies: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:15) Auston Matthews: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:42) William Nylander: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:59) Bobby McMann: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:12) Connor Brown: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:24) Luke Hughes: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.32 (P2 14:27) Luke Hughes: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:32) Brett Pesce: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:43) Cody Glass: tip-in, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:53) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 16:57) Calle Jarnkrok: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:20) Auston Matthews: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:42) Auston Matthews: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:43) Auston Matthews: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.32 (P2 18:46) Matthew Knies: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:47) Dawson Mercer: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:10) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 183 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:41) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:31) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:45) Jack Hughes: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:11) Timo Meier: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 5:15) Bobby McMann: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:18) Luke Glendening: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:36) Jesper Bratt: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:01) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 159 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:07) Jesper Bratt: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 8:45) Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:36) Timo Meier: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:45) Bobby McMann: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:40) John Tavares: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:46) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:03) Nick Robertson: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 13:24) Brenden Dillon: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:59) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:31) John Tavares: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:07) Auston Matthews: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:59) Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 164 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:42) William Nylander: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:15) John Tavares: poke, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:27) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:04) Matthew Knies: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:18) Nick Robertson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:46) John Tavares: GOAL, bat, 6 ft, xG 0.27 (P1 6:36) Jack Hughes: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:27) Cody Glass: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.39 (P2 3:20) Brenden Dillon: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 4:54) Matias Maccelli: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 7:03) Jack Hughes: GOAL, slap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:17) Jack Hughes: GOAL, wrist, 107 ft, xG 0.57 (P3 19:30)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New Jersey Devils

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Nico Hischier 000 0 30.14 0020:52
86 Jack Hughes 303 +3 110.87 0118:53
28 Timo Meier 011 0 50.32 1017:33
91 Dawson Mercer 000 0 60.61 0017:23
16 Connor Brown 000 -1 10.06 0117:10
63 Jesper Bratt 033 +3 40.20 2015:20
81 Arseny Gritsyuk 011 +1 20.06 1012:56
12 Cody Glass 101 -1 40.48 0012:19
41 Luke Glendening 011 +1 20.05 3212:13
47 Paul Cotter 000 -1 30.21 3011:51
81 Ondrej Palat 000 +1 10.00 1011:43
Defense
7 Dougie Hamilton 000 0 100.04 3323:06
22 Brett Pesce 011 +2 20.22 0421:49
43 Luke Hughes 011 +1 50.40 0120:53
71 Jonas Siegenthaler 000 -1 00.00 0319:27
5 Brenden Dillon 101 +2 30.26 1116:33
71 Simon Nemec 011 0 10.00 0115:07
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Allen 25223 .920 3.03 +1.03

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 000 -2 70.53 1221:51
89 Matthew Knies 000 -3 50.41 0019:54
88 William Nylander 022 +1 40.02 1018:41
91 John Tavares 112 +1 70.58 1117:40
63 Matias Maccelli 101 +2 50.46 0015:16
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -1 10.05 1114:46
74 Bobby McMann 000 -1 60.16 4014:33
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 -1 10.07 0013:34
11 Max Domi 000 -1 20.00 0313:05
81 Dakota Joshua 000 -1 10.17 4011:54
18 Steven Lorentz 000 -1 00.00 1010:52
14 Nick Robertson 000 -1 40.29 1009:26
Defense
44 Morgan Rielly 000 0 60.07 1024:30
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 011 +1 40.03 1124:02
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -1 10.00 1421:03
22 Jake McCabe 000 -2 20.10 1320:23
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 20.09 4018:21
8 Chris Tanev 000 -1 00.00 0105:57
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 34430 .882 3.35 -0.65

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New Jersey Devils

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
86 Jack Hughes C +3.23 +2.25 +0.56 +0.47 0.00 -0.01 -0.05 — 18:53
63 Jesper Bratt L +2.70 +2.10 +0.13 +0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:20
43 Luke Hughes D +2.25 +0.55 +0.26 +1.37 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 20:53
22 Brett Pesce D +2.17 +0.55 +0.14 +1.14 +0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 21:49
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R +1.28 +0.55 +0.04 +0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:56
28 Timo Meier R +1.20 +0.70 +0.21 +0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:33
34 Jake Allen G +1.03 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.03 60:00
91 Dawson Mercer C +0.83 0.00 +0.40 +0.62 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 17:23
5 Brenden Dillon D +0.71 +0.75 +0.17 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:33
12 Cody Glass C +0.63 +0.75 +0.32 -0.38 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 12:19
14 Luke Glendening C +0.57 +0.70 +0.04 -0.21 0.00 -0.05 +0.10 — 12:13
13 Nico Hischier C +0.46 0.00 +0.09 +0.34 0.00 +0.09 -0.06 — 20:52
7 Dougie Hamilton D +0.13 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 23:06
16 Connor Brown R -0.29 0.00 +0.04 -0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 17:10
18 Ondrej Palat L -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:43
47 Paul Cotter L -0.34 0.00 +0.14 -0.47 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:51
17 Simon Nemec D -0.44 +0.55 0.00 -1.02 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:07
48 Brian Halonen L -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:52
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D -0.76 0.00 0.00 -0.76 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 19:27

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 John Tavares C +2.44 +1.30 +0.38 +0.72 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 17:40
88 William Nylander R +2.30 +1.25 +0.02 +1.07 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 18:41
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +2.09 +0.70 +0.02 +1.36 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 24:02
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.83 +0.75 +0.30 +0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:16
74 Bobby McMann C +0.44 0.00 +0.11 +0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:33
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.40 0.00 +0.11 -0.03 +0.30 0.00 +0.02 — 11:54
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.38 0.00 +0.04 +0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:30
55 Nicolas Roy C 0.00 0.00 +0.03 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:46
18 Steven Lorentz C -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:52
89 Nick Robertson L -0.11 0.00 +0.19 -0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:26
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.20 0.00 +0.05 -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:34
8 Chris Tanev D -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 5:57
2 Simon Benoit D -0.48 0.00 +0.06 -0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:21
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 21:03
34 Auston Matthews C -0.57 0.00 +0.34 -0.86 -0.15 +0.02 +0.08 — 21:51
22 Jake McCabe D -0.57 0.00 +0.06 -0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 20:23
41 Anthony Stolarz G -0.65 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.65 58:19
23 Matthew Knies L -0.75 0.00 +0.27 -1.04 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:54
11 Max Domi C -0.85 0.00 0.00 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 13:05

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.