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Colorado AvalancheCOL 3–4 Final/OT Utah MammothUTA

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 1020 3 33
Utah MammothUTA 0211 4 33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:29 COL Cale Makar (3) Parker Kelly (1), Zakhar Bardakov (1) · snap xG 0.03 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
9:17 UTA Nick Schmaltz (4)PP Clayton Keller (6), Mikhail Sergachev (1) · snap xG 0.28 1–1 ▶
12:30 UTA Lawson Crouse (1) Kevin Stenlund (1), Michael Carcone (1) · slap xG 0.25 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:10 COL Jack Drury (1) Ross Colton (1) · snap xG 0.22 2–2 ▶
5:20 UTA Mikhail Sergachev (1) Unassisted · snap xG 0.03 2–3 ▶
17:44 COL Martin Necas (5) Unassisted · snap xG 0.02 3–3 ▶
Overtime
0:33 UTA Dylan Guenther (4) Clayton Keller (7), Mikhail Sergachev (2) · backhand xG 0.10 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 42%Deserve to win58% UTA
COLUTA
2.27Expected goals2.69
3Goals (no shootout)4
2.16Expected goals, 5 on 52.10
65Shot attempts53
45Unblocked attempts44
33Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
13:10 UTA No shift No shift · McBain, 34:41 on the bench
No shift after 2:40 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (4:56) before that

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots
Logan Cooley: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:27) Devon Toews: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:33) Liam O'Brien: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 2:51) Dmitri Simashev: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:26) Dmitri Simashev: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:27) Mikhail Sergachev: backhand, 98 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:40) Josh Manson: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 4:04) Brent Burns: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:22) Sam Malinski: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:26) Sam Malinski: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:31) Clayton Keller: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:50) Barrett Hayton: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 6:00) Brock Nelson: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:45) Clayton Keller: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:49) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:50) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:18) Josh Manson: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:25) Sam Malinski: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:54) Lawson Crouse: between-legs, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:58) Michael Carcone: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:00) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 13:11) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:12) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:37) Brock Nelson: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:14) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:32) Brent Burns: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:44) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 18:15) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:40) Ilya Solovyov: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:26) Liam O'Brien: snap, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:50) Barrett Hayton: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:13) Logan Cooley: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:50) Dylan Guenther: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 3:56) Logan Cooley: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:08) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:21) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:02) Martin Necas: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 8:05) Sam Malinski: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:40) Clayton Keller: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:15) Lawson Crouse: backhand, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:27) Michael Carcone: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:46) Ilya Solovyov: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:47) Victor Olofsson: slap, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 11:10) Ross Colton: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:17) Brent Burns: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:26) Devon Toews: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:29) Michael Carcone: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:27) JJ Peterka: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:21) Clayton Keller: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:35) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:32) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 17:06) Liam O'Brien: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 18:14) Kevin Stenlund: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:15) Victor Olofsson: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:47) Mikhail Sergachev: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:06) Lawson Crouse: slap, 185 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:40) Jack Drury: tip-in, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:58) Jack Drury: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:05) Dylan Guenther: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:15) Dmitri Simashev: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:19) Michael Carcone: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:00) Zakhar Bardakov: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:13) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:10) Lawson Crouse: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 6:49) Ross Colton: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:37) Nate Schmidt: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:28) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:06) Artturi Lehkonen: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:07) Cale Makar: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:10) JJ Peterka: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 9:58) Martin Necas: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 11:25) Josh Manson: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:08) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:15) Nathan MacKinnon: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 13:15) Michael Carcone: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:11) Dmitri Simashev: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:19) JJ Peterka: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:40) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 99 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:51) Clayton Keller: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:25) Michael Carcone: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:05) Brent Burns: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:00) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:27) Cale Makar: GOAL, snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:29) Nick Schmaltz: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 9:17) Lawson Crouse: GOAL, slap, 20 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 12:30) Jack Drury: GOAL, snap, 11 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 1:10) Mikhail Sergachev: GOAL, snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:20) Martin Necas: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:44) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 0:33)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 101 -1 50.22 2022:04
29 Nathan MacKinnon 000 -1 80.63 2020:51
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 0 10.05 1018:46
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 0 30.24 2018:17
11 Brock Nelson 000 +1 40.16 0118:12
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 0 30.03 3016:38
18 Jack Drury 101 +1 40.22 0014:22
79 Ross Colton 011 +1 50.09 2014:05
95 Victor Olofsson 000 0 40.19 0013:43
17 Parker Kelly 011 +1 00.00 0009:21
54 Gavin Brindley 000 0 00.00 1008:25
93 Zakhar Bardakov 011 0 10.01 2005:57
Defense
8 Cale Makar 101 +1 50.04 0225:30
7 Devon Toews 000 +2 50.01 0225:14
84 Brent Burns 000 0 40.03 1221:23
42 Josh Manson 000 -1 30.28 1018:53
70 Sam Malinski 000 -1 60.03 0014:56
7 Ilya Solovyov 000 -1 40.05 3112:34
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 33429 .879 2.69 -1.31

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
92 Logan Cooley 000 0 40.16 3019:20
82 Kevin Stenlund 011 0 10.01 2218:55
8 Nick Schmaltz 101 -1 40.54 0417:56
11 Dylan Guenther 101 +1 40.22 1117:26
27 Barrett Hayton 000 -1 30.15 0117:11
9 Clayton Keller 022 0 50.23 0116:54
10 JJ Peterka 000 0 60.17 0116:48
67 Lawson Crouse 101 +1 60.55 5015:45
53 Michael Carcone 011 +1 60.18 2012:49
38 Liam O'Brien 000 -1 30.25 4111:52
13 Brandon Tanev 000 -1 00.00 5111:28
22 Jack McBain 000 0 00.00 3104:56
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 123 +1 60.07 0124:56
6 John Marino 000 0 00.00 0022:49
28 Ian Cole 000 0 00.00 2119:56
88 Nate Schmidt 000 -1 10.06 1119:55
3 Olli Maatta 000 -1 00.00 0110:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 33330 .909 2.27 -0.73

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
20 Ross Colton C +1.47 +0.70 +0.06 +0.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:05
18 Jack Drury C +1.23 +0.75 +0.14 +0.51 -0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 14:22
8 Cale Makar D +1.16 +0.75 +0.02 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 25:30
88 Martin Necas C +1.06 +0.75 +0.14 +0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:04
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +0.90 0.00 +0.41 +0.59 0.00 -0.03 -0.06 — 20:51
7 Devon Toews D +0.58 0.00 +0.01 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 25:14
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.46 0.00 +0.15 +0.16 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:17
95 Victor Olofsson L +0.41 0.00 +0.12 +0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:43
11 Brock Nelson C +0.40 0.00 +0.10 +0.23 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 18:12
84 Brent Burns D +0.38 0.00 +0.02 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 21:23
17 Parker Kelly C +0.28 +0.70 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:21
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +0.24 0.00 +0.03 +0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:46
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +0.11 0.00 +0.02 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 16:38
42 Josh Manson D +0.02 0.00 +0.18 -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:53
28 Ilya Solovyov D -0.28 0.00 +0.03 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:34
70 Sam Malinski D -0.28 0.00 +0.02 -0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:56
93 Zakhar Bardakov C -0.37 +0.55 +0.01 -0.90 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 5:57
54 Gavin Brindley C -1.00 0.00 0.00 -0.85 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:25
41 Scott Wedgewood G -1.31 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.31 60:33

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +1.92 +1.85 +0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 24:56
67 Lawson Crouse L +1.82 +0.75 +0.36 +0.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:45
9 Clayton Keller R +1.70 +1.40 +0.15 -0.06 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:54
53 Michael Carcone L +1.41 +0.55 +0.12 +0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:49
8 Nick Schmaltz C +1.29 +0.75 +0.35 +0.03 0.00 -0.01 +0.16 — 17:56
82 Kevin Stenlund C +1.12 +0.70 0.00 +0.32 0.00 +0.02 +0.08 — 18:55
6 John Marino D +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.32 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 22:49
27 Barrett Hayton C +0.38 0.00 +0.10 +0.21 0.00 +0.04 +0.03 — 17:11
28 Ian Cole D +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:56
11 Dylan Guenther R +0.28 +0.75 +0.14 -0.67 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 17:26
22 Jack McBain C +0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.16 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 4:56
26 Dmitri Simashev D -0.11 0.00 +0.05 -0.05 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 20:00
38 Liam O'Brien C -0.24 0.00 +0.16 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:52
77 JJ Peterka R -0.31 0.00 +0.11 -0.44 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 16:48
2 Olli Maatta D -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:43
13 Brandon Tanev L -0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 11:28
88 Nate Schmidt D -0.54 0.00 +0.04 -0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:55
92 Logan Cooley C -0.66 0.00 +0.11 -0.76 0.00 +0.04 -0.04 — 19:20
70 Karel Vejmelka G -0.73 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.73 60:33

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.