Detroit Red WingsDET 2–4 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Detroit Red WingsDET	0	2	0	2	31
Buffalo SabresBUF	0	2	2	4	31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
3:00	DET	J.T. Compher (1) Albert Johansson (2), Jonatan Berggren (1) · wrist xG 0.22	1–0 ▶
11:37	BUF	Jason Zucker (4) Jack Quinn (2), Conor Timmins (1) · wrist xG 0.19	1–1 ▶
16:28	BUF	Tyson Kozak (2) Jack Quinn (3), Mattias Samuelsson (2) · wrist xG 0.17	1–2 ▶
18:20	DET	Emmitt Finnie (3) Dylan Larkin (7), Lucas Raymond (4) · tip-in xG 0.07	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
4:15	BUF	Jack Quinn (3)PP Ryan McLeod (1), Bowen Byram (2) · slap xG 0.08	2–3 ▶
8:10	BUF	Alex Tuch (2) Josh Doan (4), Ryan McLeod (2) · tip-in xG 0.11	2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DET 43%Deserve to win57% BUF

DET		BUF
3.42	Expected goals	3.98
2	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.33	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.19
73	Shot attempts	70
51	Unblocked attempts	54
31	Shots on goal	31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced DET 1.74–0.01 In xG over 10 minutes, the start of the 1st to 10:00 of the 1st; neither team scored
2nd Period
4:25	DET	Goalie	Goalie · Gibson +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.02 xG, 13 shots on goal
3rd Period
6:20	BUF	No shift	No shift · Zucker, 16:38 on the bench No shift after 14:22 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (8:28) before that
16:49	DET	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Gibson, down 4–2 With 3:11 left
19:50	DET	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.15–0.09 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:50 to 19:50 of the 3rd; neither team scored

Shot map

DET shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Dylan Larkin	0	1	1	0	3	0.12	0	0	19:48
23	Lucas Raymond	0	1	1	0	3	0.09	1	0	18:09
93	Alex DeBrincat	0	0	0	-1	7	0.51	0	0	16:42
18	Andrew Copp	0	0	0	0	5	0.13	3	0	15:41
29	Jonatan Berggren	0	1	1	+1	5	0.21	0	0	14:59
37	J.T. Compher	1	0	1	+1	3	0.40	0	0	14:53
92	Marco Kasper	0	0	0	-2	2	0.21	1	2	14:21
27	Michael Rasmussen	0	0	0	-1	3	0.25	3	0	14:04
21	James van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	+1	5	0.45	0	1	13:52
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	1	1	13:23
58	Emmitt Finnie	1	0	1	0	2	0.16	1	0	13:05
Defense
53	Moritz Seider	0	0	0	0	10	0.33	1	1	26:15
8	Ben Chiarot	0	0	0	0	5	0.08	1	4	22:50
77	Simon Edvinsson	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	0	3	17:43
44	Axel Sandin-Pellikka	0	0	0	-2	3	0.03	0	0	17:35
20	Albert Johansson	0	1	1	+1	5	0.06	1	2	15:15
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0	0	0	+1	5	0.12	2	1	13:41

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
John Gibson	31	4	27	.871	3.86	-0.14

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
6	Zach Benson	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	0	1	21:03
72	Tage Thompson	0	0	0	-1	12	0.92	0	0	19:36
89	Alex Tuch	1	0	1	0	9	0.52	0	4	19:19
91	Josh Doan	0	1	1	0	7	0.59	1	0	18:58
71	Ryan McLeod	0	2	2	0	0	0.00	0	2	17:57
48	Tyson Kozak	1	0	1	+1	2	0.17	5	2	15:46
20	Jiri Kulich	0	0	0	-1	4	0.21	1	1	15:41
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	5	0.13	3	2	13:08
22	Jack Quinn	1	2	3	+2	3	0.13	0	0	11:40
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	10:40
86	Noah Ostlund	0	0	0	+2	2	0.33	1	1	09:58
17	Jason Zucker	1	0	1	0	2	0.28	2	0	08:28
Defense
21	Conor Timmins	0	1	1	+2	4	0.05	1	1	22:39
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	0	0	-1	7	0.20	1	1	21:50
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	2	20:41
24	Bowen Byram	0	1	1	+1	7	0.34	1	0	19:42
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	0	0	19:34
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	1	1	09:26

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Colten Ellis	31	2	29	.935	3.42	+1.42

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
37 J.T. Compher L	+1.53	+0.75	+0.26	+0.59	0.00	-0.03	-0.04	—	14:53
48 Jonatan Berggren R	+1.08	+0.55	+0.14	+0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:59
20 Albert Johansson D	+1.03	+0.70	+0.04	+0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	15:15
53 Moritz Seider D	+0.90	0.00	+0.22	+0.79	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	26:15
21 James van Riemsdyk L	+0.88	0.00	+0.29	+0.68	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	13:52
58 Emmitt Finnie C	+0.82	+0.75	+0.10	-0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:05
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	+0.56	0.00	+0.08	+0.29	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	13:41
23 Lucas Raymond L	+0.53	+0.55	+0.06	-0.18	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	18:09
8 Ben Chiarot D	+0.48	0.00	+0.05	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.22	—	22:50
93 Alex DeBrincat R	+0.33	0.00	+0.33	+0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	16:42
71 Dylan Larkin C	+0.29	+0.70	+0.08	-0.34	-0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	19:48
28 Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R	+0.25	0.00	+0.15	+0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:02
92 Marco Kasper C	+0.11	0.00	+0.13	-0.12	0.00	+0.02	+0.08	—	14:21
18 Andrew Copp C	+0.07	0.00	+0.08	-0.07	0.00	+0.06	0.00	—	15:41
36 John Gibson G	-0.14	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.14	56:49
22 Mason Appleton C	-0.29	0.00	+0.02	-0.37	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	13:23
27 Michael Rasmussen C	-0.39	0.00	+0.16	-0.39	-0.15	+0.01	-0.02	—	14:04
77 Simon Edvinsson D	-0.73	0.00	0.00	-0.71	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	17:43
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	-0.96	0.00	+0.02	-0.98	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:35

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
22 Jack Quinn R	+2.52	+2.15	+0.08	+0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:40
91 Josh Doan R	+1.63	+0.70	+0.38	+0.58	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	—	18:58
71 Ryan McLeod C	+1.60	+1.25	0.00	+0.29	0.00	-0.04	+0.10	—	17:57
4 Bowen Byram D	+1.56	+0.55	+0.22	+0.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:42
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.54	+0.75	+0.34	+0.25	0.00	+0.02	+0.18	—	19:19
92 Colten Ellis G	+1.42	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.42	59:54
86 Noah Ostlund C	+1.03	0.00	+0.22	+0.78	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	9:58
48 Tyson Kozak C	+0.98	+0.75	+0.11	-0.12	+0.15	-0.01	+0.10	—	15:46
21 Conor Timmins D	+0.89	+0.55	+0.03	+0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:39
17 Jason Zucker L	+0.66	+0.75	+0.18	-0.24	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	8:28
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+0.62	+0.55	0.00	-0.14	+0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	20:41
29 Beck Malenstyn L	+0.47	0.00	+0.09	+0.11	+0.15	0.00	+0.12	—	13:08
19 Peyton Krebs C	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:40
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	0.00	0.00	+0.13	-0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	21:50
73 Zach Metsa D	-0.01	0.00	+0.05	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	9:26
72 Tage Thompson C	-0.11	0.00	+0.60	-0.74	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	19:36
6 Zach Benson L	-0.19	0.00	+0.01	-0.26	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	21:03
25 Owen Power D	-0.68	0.00	+0.01	-0.68	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:34
20 Jiri Kulich C	-0.83	0.00	+0.13	-0.99	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	15:41

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.