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Buffalo SabresBUF 3–4 Final/OT Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF 1110 3 26
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1111 4 23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
13:40 BUF Tage Thompson (3) Jiri Kulich (2), Mattias Samuelsson (3) · wrist xG 0.05 1–0 ▶
18:33 TOR Nick Robertson (1) Easton Cowan (3), Auston Matthews (3) · wrist xG 0.14 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:59 TOR Matias Maccelli (2) John Tavares (7), Matthew Knies (7) · tip-in xG 0.08 1–2 ▶
14:23 BUF Bowen Byram (1) Conor Timmins (2), Ryan McLeod (4) · wrist xG 0.02 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
7:06 BUF Tage Thompson (4)PP Jason Zucker (2), Rasmus Dahlin (7) · wrist xG 0.28 3–2 ▶
13:10 TOR Dakota Joshua (2) Jake McCabe (2), Brandon Carlo (2) · wrist xG 0.05 3–3 ▶
Overtime
1:28 TOR John Tavares (5) Matthew Knies (8) · wrist xG 0.24 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 49%Deserve to win51% TOR
BUFTOR
2.14Expected goals2.18
3Goals (no shootout)4
1.03Expected goals, 5 on 51.03
56Shot attempts51
35Unblocked attempts36
26Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
13:40 BUF Deserve to win Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 60–40%
TOR had led since 4:04 of the 1st, by as much as 66%
2nd Period
11:21 TOR Deserve to win Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 60–40%
BUF had led since 13:40 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
3rd Period
12:50 BUF No shift No shift · Metsa, 17:19 on the bench
No shift after 2:00 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (7:08) before that

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Peyton Krebs: wrist, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:06) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:40) Alex Tuch: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:56) John Tavares: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 2:38) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:45) Max Domi: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:03) Nicolas Roy: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:04) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:49) Matias Maccelli: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 6:26) Conor Timmins: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:45) Auston Matthews: wrist, 124 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:26) Jack Quinn: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:50) Jack Quinn: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:58) Owen Power: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:15) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:17) Jason Zucker: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 10:25) Tage Thompson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:30) Jason Zucker: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:56) Tage Thompson: poke, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:57) Jack Quinn: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:04) John Tavares: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:57) Bobby McMann: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:52) Bowen Byram: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:18) Matthew Knies: deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 14:37) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:34) Jiri Kulich: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:48) Jake McCabe: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:54) Beck Malenstyn: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:21) Nick Robertson: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:30) Tage Thompson: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:57) Bobby McMann: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:32) John Tavares: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:50) John Tavares: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:51) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:00) John Tavares: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:17) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:21) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:08) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:52) Noah Ostlund: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:16) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:42) Philippe Myers: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:54) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 11:11) Easton Cowan: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:21) Josh Dunne: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:35) Simon Benoit: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:01) Noah Ostlund: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:46) Jack Quinn: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:50) Auston Matthews: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:34) Tage Thompson: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:04) Jake McCabe: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:36) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:39) Simon Benoit: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:25) Auston Matthews: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:07) Owen Power: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:34) Max Domi: wrist, 180 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:39) Conor Timmins: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:45) John Tavares: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:54) Jack Quinn: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:07) Alex Tuch: poke, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 10:21) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:21) Beck Malenstyn: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:17) Josh Dunne: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:18) Zach Benson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:31) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 0:38) Tage Thompson: GOAL, wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:40) Nick Robertson: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 18:33) Matias Maccelli: GOAL, tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:59) Bowen Byram: GOAL, wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:23) Tage Thompson: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 7:06) Dakota Joshua: GOAL, wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:10) John Tavares: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.24 (OT 1:28)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
6 Zach Benson 000 +1 10.01 0119:50
72 Tage Thompson 202 0 110.62 0018:35
71 Ryan McLeod 011 -2 00.00 0017:47
20 Jiri Kulich 011 +1 40.02 2015:24
22 Jack Quinn 000 -2 60.32 2115:19
91 Josh Doan 000 -2 00.00 1015:08
19 Peyton Krebs 000 -1 20.01 3215:04
17 Jason Zucker 011 0 20.26 0014:54
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 0 20.10 6114:19
89 Alex Tuch 000 0 20.16 0013:34
44 Josh Dunne 000 0 20.09 2012:14
86 Noah Ostlund 000 0 20.09 0208:39
Defense
25 Owen Power 000 -1 50.09 0123:55
26 Rasmus Dahlin 011 -1 70.17 0023:42
23 Mattias Samuelsson 011 -1 20.05 3222:43
21 Conor Timmins 011 0 50.03 1321:48
24 Bowen Byram 101 -1 30.14 0218:21
73 Zach Metsa 000 +1 00.00 0007:08
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 23419 .826 2.18 -1.82

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 011 +1 70.19 1223:24
89 Matthew Knies 022 +2 20.25 1022:26
74 Bobby McMann 000 0 30.06 1017:52
91 John Tavares 112 +2 80.63 1017:23
10 Nicolas Roy 000 +1 30.04 1316:07
63 Matias Maccelli 101 +1 40.29 0115:27
14 Nick Robertson 101 +1 20.18 2014:54
81 Dakota Joshua 101 0 20.05 5012:55
53 Easton Cowan 011 +1 10.09 1010:58
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 -1 00.00 0110:34
11 Max Domi 000 -2 20.12 0110:29
18 Steven Lorentz 000 -1 10.15 1108:36
Defense
25 Brandon Carlo 011 +2 20.00 0122:19
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 +1 20.01 5120:17
22 Jake McCabe 011 +1 20.02 3519:30
44 Morgan Rielly 000 +1 40.06 0019:29
44 Simon Benoit 000 -1 50.02 2018:09
51 Philippe Myers 000 -1 10.01 1216:54
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Cayden Primeau 26323 .885 2.14 -0.86

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
72 Tage Thompson C +2.24 +1.50 +0.40 +0.32 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 18:35
20 Jiri Kulich C +1.32 +0.70 +0.01 +0.52 +0.15 -0.07 0.00 — 15:24
21 Conor Timmins D +1.12 +0.70 +0.02 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:48
4 Bowen Byram D +0.89 +0.75 +0.09 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 18:21
17 Jason Zucker L +0.63 +0.70 +0.17 -0.16 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 — 14:54
6 Zach Benson L +0.53 0.00 +0.01 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:50
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +0.44 +0.55 +0.11 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:42
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.26 0.00 +0.06 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:19
25 Owen Power D +0.24 0.00 +0.06 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 23:55
86 Noah Ostlund C +0.21 0.00 +0.06 +0.08 0.00 -0.03 +0.10 — 8:39
44 Josh Dunne C +0.20 0.00 +0.06 +0.14 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 12:14
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.13 +0.55 +0.03 -0.40 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 22:43
22 Jack Quinn R +0.12 0.00 +0.21 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:19
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.07 0.00 +0.01 -0.16 +0.15 -0.01 +0.08 — 15:04
89 Alex Tuch R +0.07 0.00 +0.10 +0.13 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 13:34
73 Zach Metsa D -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:08
71 Ryan McLeod C -0.42 +0.55 0.00 -0.88 0.00 -0.05 -0.04 — 17:47
91 Josh Doan R -0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.87 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:08
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G -1.82 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.82 61:28

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 John Tavares C +2.56 +1.45 +0.41 +0.52 +0.15 +0.03 0.00 — 17:23
23 Matthew Knies L +2.02 +1.25 +0.16 +0.45 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 22:26
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.51 +0.75 +0.19 +0.51 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 15:27
53 Easton Cowan R +1.20 +0.70 +0.06 +0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:58
25 Brandon Carlo D +0.96 +0.55 0.00 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:19
22 Jake McCabe D +0.84 +0.70 +0.01 -0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 19:30
89 Nick Robertson L +0.74 +0.75 +0.12 -0.12 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:54
34 Auston Matthews C +0.71 +0.55 +0.12 -0.13 0.00 +0.07 +0.10 — 23:24
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.60 +0.75 +0.03 -0.17 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 12:55
55 Nicolas Roy C +0.37 0.00 +0.03 +0.09 0.00 +0.08 +0.17 — 16:07
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.22 0.00 +0.04 +0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:29
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.09 0.00 +0.10 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 8:36
51 Philippe Myers D -0.03 0.00 +0.01 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:54
11 Max Domi C -0.22 0.00 +0.07 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:29
2 Simon Benoit D -0.23 0.00 +0.02 -0.05 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 18:09
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 10:34
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.28 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 -0.30 0.00 +0.03 — 20:17
74 Bobby McMann C -0.40 0.00 +0.04 -0.42 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 17:52
30 Cayden Primeau G -0.86 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.86 61:28

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.