hockeystats.io

Carolina HurricanesCAR 2–3 Final Dallas StarsDAL

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 200 2 28
Dallas StarsDAL 021 3 34

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:14 CAR Jackson Blake (2) Unassisted · snap xG 0.18 1–0 ▶
19:49 CAR Sebastian Aho (4) Nikolaj Ehlers (3) · snap xG 0.12 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
1:04 DAL Miro Heiskanen (1) Esa Lindell (3) · snap xG 0.06 2–1 ▶
5:41 DAL Sam Steel (1)PP Thomas Harley (6), Mikko Rantanen (6) · tip-in xG 0.09 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
11:18 DAL Miro Heiskanen (2)PP Wyatt Johnston (4), Mikko Rantanen (7) · snap xG 0.14 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 33%Deserve to win67% DAL
CARDAL
2.78Expected goals3.93
2Goals (no shootout)3
1.94Expected goals, 5 on 52.21
82Shot attempts51
51Unblocked attempts41
28Shots on goal34

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
18:08 CAR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Bussi, down 3–2
With 1:52 left

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
Sean Walker: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:12) Jordan Martinook: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:16) Esa Lindell: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:06) Roope Hintz: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:46) Sean Walker: backhand, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:40) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:07) Tyler Seguin: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:02) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 7:05) Jason Robertson: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 7:19) Roope Hintz: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 7:26) Jordan Staal: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:38) Bradly Nadeau: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:52) Sebastian Aho: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:18) Logan Stankoven: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:45) Taylor Hall: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 12:39) Adam Erne: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 13:57) Jason Robertson: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:38) Seth Jarvis: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:55) Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:39) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:56) Jackson Blake: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:59) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:11) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:19) Jordan Staal: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:47) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:18) Ilya Lyubushkin: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:21) Charles Alexis Legault: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:47) Mike Reilly: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:53) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 4:30) Roope Hintz: poke, 9 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 4:32) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.32 (P2 4:34) Thomas Harley: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:25) Sam Steel: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:31) Mark Jankowski: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:54) Mark Jankowski: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:21) Sean Walker: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:41) Sam Steel: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:48) Roope Hintz: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:49) Roope Hintz: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:50) Jason Robertson: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:05) Logan Stankoven: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:04) Seth Jarvis: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:21) Mike Reilly: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:46) Joel Nystrom: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:33) Jesperi Kotkaniemi: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:51) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:56) Colin Blackwell: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:43) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:59) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:30) Taylor Hall: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:53) Charles Alexis Legault: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:14) Andrei Svechnikov: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:39) Jason Robertson: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 14:49) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:52) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:16) Jackson Blake: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 18:06) Taylor Hall: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:21) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:35) Roope Hintz: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 2:03) Nathan Bastian: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:06) Joel Nystrom: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:34) Sean Walker: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:03) Taylor Hall: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:43) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:10) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 5:01) Mavrik Bourque: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 5:11) Mikko Rantanen: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:30) Jordan Martinook: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:03) Justin Hryckowian: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:14) Alexander Petrovic: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:52) Jason Robertson: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:03) Jason Robertson: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:04) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:04) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:23) Logan Stankoven: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 9:42) Logan Stankoven: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:43) Taylor Hall: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:44) Jason Robertson: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 10:13) Mike Reilly: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:27) Mikko Rantanen: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:45) Tyler Seguin: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 10:59) Sean Walker: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:44) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:19) Mike Reilly: snap, 133 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:38) Bradly Nadeau: backhand, 88 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:33) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 147 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:31) Bradly Nadeau: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:47) Jackson Blake: GOAL, snap, 13 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 4:14) Sebastian Aho: GOAL, snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:49) Miro Heiskanen: GOAL, snap, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:04) Sam Steel: GOAL, tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:41) Miro Heiskanen: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:18)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 101 0 60.16 1022:08
24 Seth Jarvis 000 0 60.19 4018:26
53 Jackson Blake 101 +1 50.45 0016:44
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 011 0 40.01 1016:25
22 Logan Stankoven 000 +1 50.44 0116:24
37 Andrei Svechnikov 000 0 50.15 0015:15
11 Jordan Staal 000 0 30.09 0014:44
48 Jordan Martinook 000 0 50.11 4114:12
71 Taylor Hall 000 +1 50.40 2014:10
77 Mark Jankowski 000 0 30.08 1011:16
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 000 0 10.03 2210:05
Defense
26 Sean Walker 000 0 70.10 5125:46
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 0 40.04 3122:29
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 0 80.07 3021:16
64 Joel Nystrom 000 +1 30.05 1117:57
6 Mike Reilly 000 +1 50.14 0015:00
62 Charles Alexis Legault 000 0 20.09 1009:58
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Brandon Bussi 34331 .912 3.84 +0.84

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
96 Mikko Rantanen 022 +1 40.19 2321:03
53 Wyatt Johnston 011 0 80.73 2319:49
18 Sam Steel 101 0 30.25 0118:56
21 Jason Robertson 000 -1 70.78 1018:33
91 Tyler Seguin 000 0 20.28 1216:28
24 Roope Hintz 000 0 60.66 1115:20
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 -1 40.42 2014:35
15 Colin Blackwell 000 0 10.03 3113:37
12 Radek Faksa 000 -1 00.00 2111:39
73 Adam Erne 000 +1 20.16 6011:28
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 -1 10.05 2008:56
11 Nathan Bastian 000 -1 10.01 0006:24
Defense
55 Thomas Harley 011 -1 40.07 1325:16
4 Miro Heiskanen 202 0 30.21 0324:19
23 Esa Lindell 011 +1 10.06 0620:50
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 000 0 10.02 2420:23
6 Lian Bichsel 000 -1 00.00 3114:13
36 Alexander Petrovic 000 -1 30.01 2112:11
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 28226 .929 2.78 +0.78

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
53 Jackson Blake R +1.75 +0.75 +0.29 +0.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:44
22 Logan Stankoven C +0.93 0.00 +0.29 +0.41 +0.15 +0.01 +0.07 — 16:24
32 Brandon Bussi G +0.84 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.84 58:08
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +0.51 +0.70 +0.01 -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:25
62 Charles Alexis Legault D +0.43 0.00 +0.06 +0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 9:58
29 Bradly Nadeau L +0.27 0.00 +0.11 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:39
20 Sebastian Aho C +0.26 +0.75 +0.10 -0.69 +0.15 -0.03 -0.02 — 22:08
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C +0.26 0.00 +0.02 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 10:05
6 Mike Reilly D +0.24 0.00 +0.09 +0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:00
77 Mark Jankowski L +0.20 0.00 +0.05 +0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:16
11 Jordan Staal C +0.14 0.00 +0.06 +0.01 0.00 +0.07 0.00 — 14:44
64 Joel Nystrom D +0.06 0.00 +0.03 +0.13 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:57
48 Jordan Martinook L +0.05 0.00 +0.07 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:12
71 Taylor Hall L +0.01 0.00 +0.26 +0.06 -0.30 -0.01 0.00 — 14:10
37 Andrei Svechnikov R -0.10 0.00 +0.10 -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:15
5 Jalen Chatfield D -0.12 0.00 +0.05 -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:16
21 Alexander Nikishin D -0.16 0.00 +0.03 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 22:29
26 Sean Walker D -0.37 0.00 +0.06 -0.57 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 25:46
24 Seth Jarvis C -0.92 0.00 +0.12 -0.87 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:26

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
4 Miro Heiskanen D +2.46 +1.50 +0.14 +0.70 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 24:19
53 Wyatt Johnston C +2.21 +0.70 +0.47 +0.77 +0.15 -0.01 +0.13 — 19:49
23 Esa Lindell D +1.93 +0.70 +0.04 +1.09 -0.15 0.00 +0.26 — 20:50
96 Mikko Rantanen R +1.59 +1.10 +0.12 +0.41 -0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 21:03
18 Sam Steel C +1.12 +0.75 +0.16 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:56
21 Jason Robertson L +0.93 0.00 +0.51 +0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:33
24 Roope Hintz C +0.92 0.00 +0.43 +0.30 +0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 15:20
22 Mavrik Bourque C +0.84 0.00 +0.27 +0.48 +0.15 -0.02 -0.04 — 14:35
29 Jake Oettinger G +0.78 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.78 60:00
55 Thomas Harley D +0.65 +0.70 +0.04 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 25:16
73 Adam Erne L +0.23 0.00 +0.10 +0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:28
91 Tyler Seguin C +0.12 0.00 +0.18 -0.16 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 — 16:28
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D +0.10 0.00 +0.01 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 20:23
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.12 0.00 +0.02 -0.28 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 13:37
6 Lian Bichsel D -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:13
28 Alexander Petrovic D -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:11
11 Nathan Bastian R -0.61 0.00 +0.01 -0.46 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 6:24
12 Radek Faksa C -0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.66 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 11:39
49 Justin Hryckowian C -0.66 0.00 +0.03 -0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:56

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.