Dallas StarsDAL 3–2 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Dallas StarsDAL	0	2	1	3	28
Nashville PredatorsNSH	1	1	0	2	25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:02	NSH	Jonathan Marchessault (3)PP Ryan O'Reilly (4), Filip Forsberg (4) · snap xG 0.09	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
7:15	NSH	Spencer Stastney (1) Luke Evangelista (4), Justin Barron (3) · snap xG 0.08	0–2 ▶
9:36	DAL	Oskar Bäck (1) Radek Faksa (2), Thomas Harley (7) · tip-in xG 0.08	1–2 ▶
16:29	DAL	Wyatt Johnston (6) Jason Robertson (5) · backhand xG 0.16	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
10:44	DAL	Mikko Rantanen (4)PP Mavrik Bourque (2), Jason Robertson (6) · wrist xG 0.13	3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 73%Deserve to win27% NSH

DAL		NSH
4.10	Expected goals	2.21
3	Goals (no shootout)	2
2.12	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.55
54	Shot attempts	57
46	Unblocked attempts	41
28	Shots on goal	25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
14:00	DAL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.52–0.29 In xG over 10 minutes, 4:20 to 14:20 of the 2nd; goals 1–1
3rd Period
0:20	NSH	No shift	No shift · Wood, 10:33 on the bench No shift from 10:14 of the 2nd to 0:47 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (6:29) before that
17:26	NSH	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Annunen, down 3–2 With 2:34 left
18:29	NSH	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Annunen, down 3–2 With 1:31 left

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
21	Jason Robertson	0	2	2	+1	11	0.96	2	2	24:41
96	Mikko Rantanen	1	0	1	0	8	1.03	1	0	21:32
53	Wyatt Johnston	1	0	1	+1	4	0.47	0	2	21:21
91	Tyler Seguin	0	0	0	0	3	0.45	0	0	20:41
18	Sam Steel	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	4	0	18:10
22	Mavrik Bourque	0	1	1	0	7	0.42	0	2	16:22
15	Colin Blackwell	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	2	0	12:58
49	Justin Hryckowian	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	4	0	11:23
12	Radek Faksa	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	0	10:19
73	Adam Erne	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	3	2	09:41
10	Oskar Bäck	1	0	1	+1	1	0.08	0	0	08:28
11	Nathan Bastian	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	08:10
Defense
4	Miro Heiskanen	0	0	0	0	5	0.03	1	0	25:20
55	Thomas Harley	0	1	1	+1	5	0.23	1	3	25:17
23	Esa Lindell	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	22:00
46	Ilya Lyubushkin	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	0	0	15:58
36	Alexander Petrovic	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	1	12:50
6	Lian Bichsel	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	1	11:59

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Casey DeSmith	25	2	23	.920	2.21	+0.21

Nashville Predators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
90	Ryan O'Reilly	0	1	1	-1	5	0.33	0	0	21:22
9	Filip Forsberg	0	1	1	-1	8	0.21	1	0	20:22
81	Jonathan Marchessault	1	0	1	-2	6	0.41	5	0	17:27
47	Michael McCarron	0	0	0	0	4	0.22	2	2	17:06
91	Steven Stamkos	0	0	0	+1	4	0.10	0	0	16:11
22	Cole Smith	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	9	0	14:23
56	Erik Haula	0	0	0	-1	3	0.14	0	0	14:08
17	Tyson Jost	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	3	0	11:59
89	Ozzy Wiesblatt	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	4	0	11:38
77	Luke Evangelista	0	1	1	+1	2	0.07	0	0	10:48
58	Michael Bunting	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	10:21
71	Matthew Wood	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	09:03
Defense
76	Brady Skjei	0	0	0	-1	3	0.09	0	0	26:20
48	Nick Perbix	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	0	1	20:48
41	Nicolas Hague	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	2	20:13
2	Adam Wilsby	0	0	0	0	5	0.04	0	0	20:10
24	Spencer Stastney	1	0	1	0	2	0.10	0	0	15:31
72	Justin Barron	0	1	1	0	6	0.22	1	0	14:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Justus Annunen	28	3	25	.893	3.59	+0.59

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
21 Jason Robertson L	+2.64	+1.25	+0.62	+0.73	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	24:41
22 Mavrik Bourque C	+1.93	+0.70	+0.27	+0.88	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	16:22
53 Wyatt Johnston C	+1.63	+0.75	+0.31	+0.68	-0.15	-0.04	+0.08	—	21:21
96 Mikko Rantanen R	+1.29	+0.75	+0.67	+0.06	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	—	21:32
23 Esa Lindell D	+1.02	0.00	0.00	+0.95	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	22:00
10 Oskar Bäck C	+0.97	+0.75	+0.05	+0.18	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	8:28
4 Miro Heiskanen D	+0.93	0.00	+0.02	+0.80	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	25:20
55 Thomas Harley D	+0.82	+0.55	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	25:17
12 Radek Faksa C	+0.81	+0.70	0.00	+0.10	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	10:19
49 Justin Hryckowian C	+0.65	0.00	+0.05	+0.31	+0.30	+0.01	-0.02	—	11:23
18 Sam Steel C	+0.53	0.00	+0.16	+0.20	+0.15	+0.03	0.00	—	18:10
1 Casey DeSmith G	+0.21	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.21	60:00
11 Nathan Bastian R	+0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:10
6 Lian Bichsel D	+0.17	0.00	+0.01	+0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	11:59
28 Alexander Petrovic D	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:50
91 Tyler Seguin C	+0.01	0.00	+0.29	-0.30	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	20:41
73 Adam Erne L	-0.21	0.00	+0.05	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	9:41
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D	-0.28	0.00	+0.01	-0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	15:58
15 Colin Blackwell C	-0.33	0.00	0.00	-0.35	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	12:58

Nashville Predators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
20 Justin Barron D	+1.44	+0.55	+0.14	+0.79	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	14:08
24 Spencer Stastney D	+1.06	+0.75	+0.07	+0.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:31
77 Luke Evangelista R	+1.00	+0.70	+0.05	+0.27	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:48
47 Michael McCarron C	+0.73	0.00	+0.14	+0.11	+0.30	+0.08	+0.10	—	17:06
81 Jonathan Marchessault R	+0.63	+0.75	+0.26	-0.37	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	17:27
29 Justus Annunen G	+0.59	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.59	58:03
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C	+0.47	0.00	+0.01	+0.51	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	11:38
91 Steven Stamkos C	+0.39	0.00	+0.07	+0.35	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:11
36 Cole Smith R	+0.34	0.00	+0.11	+0.38	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:23
17 Tyson Jost C	+0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.42	-0.15	-0.01	+0.02	—	11:59
90 Ryan O'Reilly C	+0.09	+0.70	+0.22	-0.83	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	21:22
9 Filip Forsberg L	-0.47	+0.55	+0.14	-0.97	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	20:22
48 Nick Perbix D	-0.48	0.00	+0.05	-0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:48
56 Erik Haula L	-0.60	0.00	+0.09	-0.48	-0.15	-0.06	0.00	—	14:08
41 Nicolas Hague D	-0.61	0.00	+0.01	-0.56	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	20:13
83 Adam Wilsby D	-0.62	0.00	+0.03	-0.59	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	20:10
58 Michael Bunting L	-0.64	0.00	0.00	-0.62	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:21
76 Brady Skjei D	-0.80	0.00	+0.06	-0.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	26:20
71 Matthew Wood R	-1.08	0.00	0.00	-1.11	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	9:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.