hockeystats.io

Calgary FlamesCGY 3–4 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY 111 3 29
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 022 4 37

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:33 CGY Morgan Frost (2) Jonathan Huberdeau (2), Nazem Kadri (6) · wrist xG 0.12 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
3:13 TOR Max Domi (2) Steven Lorentz (3), Matias Maccelli (2) · wrist xG 0.12 1–1 ▶
17:55 CGY Joel Farabee (1) Justin Kirkland (1), Rasmus Andersson (1) · wrist xG 0.16 2–1 ▶
19:25 TOR Matthew Knies (3) William Nylander (12) · wrist xG 0.29 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
3:45 TOR Matthew Knies (4)PP Unassisted · wrist xG 0.44 2–3 ▶
14:49 CGY Samuel Honzek (1) Mikael Backlund (4) · wrist xG 0.27 3–3 ▶
17:56 TOR Max Domi (3) Matthew Knies (9), John Tavares (8) · wrist xG 0.09 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 45%Deserve to win55% TOR
CGYTOR
3.05Expected goals3.42
3Goals (no shootout)4
2.32Expected goals, 5 on 51.86
55Shot attempts62
39Unblocked attempts51
29Shots on goal37

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
17:10 TOR Deserve to win Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 61–39%
CGY had led since 9:01 of the 1st, by as much as 67%
3rd Period
18:34 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 4–3
With 1:26 left

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Joel Hanley: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:10) Blake Coleman: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 1:17) Philippe Myers: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:47) Auston Matthews: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 3:06) Philippe Myers: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:10) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:13) Auston Matthews: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:36) Auston Matthews: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:04) MacKenzie Weegar: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:25) Jake Bean: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:33) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:39) John Tavares: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:24) Connor Zary: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:50) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:55) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 9:01) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:47) MacKenzie Weegar: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:24) Blake Coleman: slap, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:25) Auston Matthews: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:26) John Tavares: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 11:50) Morgan Rielly: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 12:43) Brandon Carlo: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:01) Auston Matthews: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:25) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:52) John Tavares: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 14:55) Matthew Knies: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:17) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:41) Matthew Knies: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:41) Auston Matthews: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:10) Philippe Myers: wrist, 147 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:57) Morgan Frost: between-legs, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 0:22) Bobby McMann: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:29) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:58) Yegor Sharangovich: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:59) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:42) Philippe Myers: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:15) John Tavares: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:18) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:45) Jake McCabe: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:58) Ryan Lomberg: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 8:11) MacKenzie Weegar: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:24) Bobby McMann: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:43) Matthew Knies: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:09) Joel Hanley: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:38) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:53) Justin Kirkland: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 11:44) Simon Benoit: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:13) Samuel Honzek: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:38) Philippe Myers: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:18) Bobby McMann: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:46) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:42) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:50) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:26) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:58) Jake McCabe: wrist, 170 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:16) Nazem Kadri: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:33) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:04) Nazem Kadri: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:05) John Tavares: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:32) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:56) John Tavares: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:39) Auston Matthews: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 3:40) John Tavares: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:41) John Tavares: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:42) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:22) Joel Farabee: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:24) Morgan Rielly: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:57) Nick Robertson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:12) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:45) Blake Coleman: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 7:05) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:30) Connor Zary: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:24) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:20) Steven Lorentz: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 10:39) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:43) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:15) Morgan Frost: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:59) Max Domi: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:14) Jonathan Huberdeau: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:09) Morgan Frost: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:10) Jonathan Huberdeau: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 18:12) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 160 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:11) Jonathan Huberdeau: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 19:32) Morgan Frost: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:33) Max Domi: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:13) Joel Farabee: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 17:55) Matthew Knies: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.29 (P2 19:25) Matthew Knies: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.44 (P3 3:45) Samuel Honzek: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 14:49) Max Domi: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:56)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
91 Nazem Kadri 011 0 120.46 1023:33
16 Morgan Frost 101 +1 40.32 1021:37
10 Jonathan Huberdeau 011 0 60.55 0021:15
20 Blake Coleman 000 -1 40.22 2016:34
11 Mikael Backlund 011 -1 10.01 1016:27
86 Joel Farabee 101 +1 20.30 0316:04
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 0 30.07 0012:18
47 Connor Zary 000 0 20.17 2011:43
29 Samuel Honzek 101 0 20.35 5011:41
27 Matt Coronato 000 -1 30.00 0011:21
28 Justin Kirkland 011 +1 10.10 2008:38
94 Ryan Lomberg 000 0 10.17 3008:06
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 011 0 30.07 1425:48
7 Kevin Bahl 000 -1 20.00 0122:58
52 MacKenzie Weegar 000 0 30.14 0220:50
24 Jake Bean 000 0 20.07 0018:48
19 Zayne Parekh 000 0 20.02 1015:54
44 Joel Hanley 000 +1 20.02 1011:39
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 37433 .892 3.35 -0.65

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 000 0 90.50 0221:03
89 Matthew Knies 213 +2 61.06 1121:02
88 William Nylander 011 +1 00.00 0018:49
91 John Tavares 011 +2 80.59 1018:13
18 Steven Lorentz 011 -1 20.23 1015:15
74 Bobby McMann 000 0 30.21 2014:22
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -1 10.05 1014:05
11 Max Domi 202 0 40.27 0012:25
14 Nick Robertson 000 -2 10.01 1012:09
63 Matias Maccelli 011 +1 10.02 0011:47
81 Dakota Joshua 000 -1 10.03 4110:16
53 Easton Cowan 000 -1 10.00 1109:54
Defense
25 Brandon Carlo 000 0 50.12 0324:01
22 Jake McCabe 000 +2 40.05 0223:05
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -1 60.19 0219:35
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 20.05 1017:19
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 20.01 3115:22
51 Philippe Myers 000 -1 60.04 2215:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 29326 .897 3.05 +0.05

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
16 Morgan Frost C +2.05 +0.75 +0.21 +1.03 0.00 +0.08 -0.02 — 21:37
10 Jonathan Huberdeau L +1.58 +0.70 +0.36 +0.43 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 21:15
91 Nazem Kadri C +1.44 +0.55 +0.30 +0.64 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 23:33
86 Joel Farabee L +1.40 +0.75 +0.20 +0.34 0.00 +0.01 +0.11 — 16:04
23 Justin Kirkland C +1.16 +0.70 +0.07 +0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:38
52 MacKenzie Weegar D +0.93 0.00 +0.09 +0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:50
24 Jake Bean D +0.91 0.00 +0.04 +0.91 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:48
29 Samuel Honzek L +0.84 +0.75 +0.23 -0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:41
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.49 +0.55 +0.05 -0.42 +0.15 0.00 +0.16 — 25:48
44 Joel Hanley D +0.33 0.00 +0.01 +0.47 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:39
70 Ryan Lomberg L +0.21 0.00 +0.11 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:06
11 Mikael Backlund C +0.15 +0.70 +0.01 -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:27
19 Zayne Parekh D +0.07 0.00 +0.02 +0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:54
17 Yegor Sharangovich C +0.01 0.00 +0.05 +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 12:18
47 Connor Zary C -0.07 0.00 +0.11 +0.01 -0.15 -0.04 0.00 — 11:43
20 Blake Coleman L -0.34 0.00 +0.14 -0.44 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 16:34
27 Matt Coronato R -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:21
32 Dustin Wolf G -0.65 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.65 58:34
7 Kevin Bahl D -0.92 0.00 0.00 -0.89 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 22:58

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
23 Matthew Knies L +3.86 +2.20 +0.69 +1.08 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:02
91 John Tavares C +1.86 +0.55 +0.38 +0.87 0.00 +0.06 0.00 — 18:13
11 Max Domi C +1.41 +1.50 +0.18 -0.34 +0.15 -0.05 -0.02 — 12:25
88 William Nylander R +1.04 +0.70 0.00 +0.31 0.00 -0.01 +0.04 — 18:49
63 Matias Maccelli L +0.92 +0.55 +0.01 +0.23 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 11:47
22 Jake McCabe D +0.26 0.00 +0.03 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 23:05
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.22 +0.70 +0.15 -0.58 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 15:15
34 Auston Matthews C +0.19 0.00 +0.32 -0.27 0.00 +0.02 +0.12 — 21:03
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.07 0.00 +0.13 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 19:35
41 Anthony Stolarz G +0.05 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.05 60:00
51 Philippe Myers D +0.03 0.00 +0.03 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:18
74 Bobby McMann C -0.14 0.00 +0.14 -0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:22
2 Simon Benoit D -0.25 0.00 +0.01 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:22
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.28 0.00 +0.08 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 24:01
53 Easton Cowan R -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 9:54
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.46 0.00 +0.03 -0.19 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 17:19
55 Nicolas Roy C -0.47 0.00 +0.03 -0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:05
89 Nick Robertson L -0.65 0.00 +0.01 -0.80 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:09
81 Dakota Joshua C -0.66 0.00 +0.02 -0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:16

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.