Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 3–6 Final Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	0	1	2	3	36
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	2	3	1	6	24

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:56	CBJ	Cole Sillinger (1) Charlie Coyle (4), Mathieu Olivier (2) · wrist xG 0.15	0–1 ▶
11:16	CBJ	Zach Werenski (3) Charlie Coyle (5), Mathieu Olivier (3) · wrist xG 0.08	0–2 ▶
2nd Period
2:43	TOR	Sammy Blais (1) Jake McCabe (3), Steven Lorentz (4) · bat xG 0.43	1–2 ▶
8:33	CBJ	Ivan Provorov (2) Dmitri Voronkov (5), Kirill Marchenko (5) · backhand xG 0.22	1–3 ▶
13:24	CBJ	Cole Sillinger (2) Charlie Coyle (6), Zach Werenski (5) · wrist xG 0.15	1–4 ▶
16:58	CBJ	Dante Fabbro (1) Mathieu Olivier (4), Cole Sillinger (3) · wrist xG 0.07	1–5 ▶
3rd Period
7:50	CBJ	Mathieu Olivier (1) Charlie Coyle (7) · wrist xG 0.05	1–6 ▶
15:45	TOR	John Tavares (6) Matthew Knies (10), Nick Robertson (2) · snap xG 0.19	2–6 ▶
18:10	TOR	Nick Robertson (2) Max Domi (1), Sammy Blais (1) · wrist xG 0.09	3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 71%Deserve to win29% CBJ

TOR		CBJ
3.82	Expected goals	2.51
3	Goals (no shootout)	6
3.48	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.07
71	Shot attempts	59
52	Unblocked attempts	36
36	Shots on goal	24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
13:24	TOR	Goalie	Goalie · Primeau −2.1 goals saved 4 goals on 1.89 xG, 12 shots on goal
3rd Period
3:51	TOR	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 60–40% CBJ had led since 4:22 of the 1st, by as much as 69%
9:50	TOR	No shift	No shift · Lorentz, 17:30 on the bench No shift after 16:58 of the 2nd; 13 shifts (7:17) before that
19:10	TOR	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced CBJ 1.16–0.09 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:20 to 19:20 of the 3rd; goals 2–0

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CBJ shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	0	0	0	-1	9	0.45	2	0	19:46
53	Easton Cowan	0	0	0	0	8	0.40	1	1	17:23
14	Nick Robertson	1	1	2	+1	6	0.12	0	0	17:22
10	Nicolas Roy	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	1	2	16:54
74	Bobby McMann	0	0	0	0	5	0.13	1	0	16:31
81	Dakota Joshua	0	0	0	0	4	0.39	3	1	15:46
89	Matthew Knies	0	1	1	-3	2	0.02	1	0	15:19
91	John Tavares	1	0	1	-3	4	0.53	2	0	14:21
11	Max Domi	0	1	1	0	3	0.25	0	0	13:42
63	Matias Maccelli	0	0	0	-3	3	0.07	0	1	12:34
0	Sammy Blais	1	1	2	0	3	0.62	5	1	10:55
18	Steven Lorentz	0	1	1	0	4	0.18	1	0	07:17
Defense
44	Morgan Rielly	0	0	0	-1	3	0.25	1	3	22:25
22	Jake McCabe	0	1	1	-2	3	0.04	0	1	20:20
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	-2	4	0.11	2	3	20:15
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	1	2	19:10
44	Simon Benoit	0	0	0	-2	2	0.02	3	4	18:05
51	Philippe Myers	0	0	0	+2	4	0.11	0	2	17:55

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Cayden Primeau	24	6	18	.750	2.51	-3.49

Columbus Blue Jackets

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
19	Adam Fantilli	0	0	0	-2	7	0.23	2	1	17:17
4	Cole Sillinger	2	1	3	+4	6	0.55	0	0	16:20
22	Boone Jenner	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	0	0	15:43
91	Kent Johnson	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	1	15:39
23	Sean Monahan	0	0	0	+1	1	0.09	1	0	14:58
3	Charlie Coyle	0	4	4	+5	2	0.08	0	0	14:54
86	Kirill Marchenko	0	1	1	+1	2	0.24	0	1	14:11
24	Mathieu Olivier	1	3	4	+4	2	0.05	2	0	14:03
59	Egor Chinakhov	0	0	0	0	8	0.22	1	0	13:55
10	Dmitri Voronkov	0	1	1	+1	2	0.25	0	0	13:36
18	Miles Wood	0	0	0	-1	3	0.00	0	0	13:35
21	Isac Lundeström	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	0	0	12:41
Defense
5	Denton Mateychuk	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	7	22:47
8	Zach Werenski	1	1	2	+2	4	0.19	0	2	21:44
9	Ivan Provorov	1	0	1	+2	5	0.35	1	0	20:19
15	Dante Fabbro	1	0	1	-1	7	0.11	0	2	19:54
78	Damon Severson	0	0	0	+3	3	0.09	0	2	19:24
2	Jake Christiansen	0	0	0	-1	4	0.02	0	3	15:00

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Elvis Merzlikins	36	3	33	.917	3.82	+0.82

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
79 Sammy Blais L	+2.66	+1.30	+0.40	+0.89	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	10:55
11 Max Domi C	+2.10	+0.70	+0.16	+1.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:42
89 Nick Robertson L	+2.08	+1.30	+0.08	+0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:22
22 Jake McCabe D	+1.89	+0.70	+0.03	+1.11	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:20
18 Steven Lorentz C	+1.32	+0.55	+0.12	+0.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:17
81 Dakota Joshua C	+1.30	0.00	+0.25	+0.82	+0.15	-0.02	+0.09	—	15:46
2 Simon Benoit D	+1.22	0.00	+0.02	+0.98	0.00	0.00	+0.22	—	18:05
51 Philippe Myers D	+1.15	0.00	+0.07	+1.13	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	17:55
53 Easton Cowan R	+0.93	0.00	+0.26	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:23
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.38	0.00	+0.29	+0.09	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	19:46
74 Bobby McMann C	+0.33	0.00	+0.09	+0.26	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	16:31
91 John Tavares C	+0.32	+0.75	+0.35	-0.73	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	—	14:21
55 Nicolas Roy C	+0.26	0.00	+0.06	+0.23	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	16:54
44 Morgan Rielly D	-0.01	0.00	+0.16	-0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	22:25
23 Matthew Knies L	-0.05	+0.70	+0.01	-0.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:19
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-0.08	0.00	+0.07	-0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:15
63 Matias Maccelli L	-0.51	0.00	+0.05	-0.59	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	12:34
25 Brandon Carlo D	-0.58	0.00	+0.03	-0.68	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:10
30 Cayden Primeau G	-3.49	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-3.49	60:00

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
3 Charlie Coyle C	+3.64	+2.80	+0.05	+0.74	0.00	+0.07	-0.02	—	14:54
24 Mathieu Olivier R	+3.30	+2.55	+0.03	+0.57	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:03
4 Cole Sillinger C	+2.81	+2.05	+0.35	+0.42	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:20
9 Ivan Provorov D	+1.63	+0.75	+0.23	+0.69	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:19
8 Zach Werenski D	+1.53	+1.30	+0.13	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	21:44
86 Kirill Marchenko R	+1.40	+0.55	+0.16	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:11
10 Dmitri Voronkov L	+1.35	+0.70	+0.16	+0.68	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	13:36
90 Elvis Merzlikins G	+0.82	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.82	60:00
23 Sean Monahan C	+0.76	0.00	+0.06	+0.69	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	14:58
78 Damon Severson D	+0.60	0.00	+0.06	+0.59	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	19:24
5 Denton Mateychuk D	+0.36	0.00	0.00	-0.10	+0.15	0.00	+0.31	—	22:47
59 Egor Chinakhov R	+0.25	0.00	+0.14	+0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:55
21 Isac Lundeström C	+0.01	0.00	+0.01	-0.03	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	12:41
11 Miles Wood L	-0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	13:35
2 Jake Christiansen D	-1.15	0.00	+0.01	-1.32	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	15:00
15 Dante Fabbro D	-1.19	+0.75	+0.07	-2.11	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	19:54
38 Boone Jenner C	-2.24	0.00	+0.01	-2.23	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	15:43
19 Adam Fantilli C	-2.31	0.00	+0.15	-2.51	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:17
91 Kent Johnson C	-2.39	0.00	0.00	-2.44	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:39

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.