| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 40 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 22 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:07 | Morgan Geekie (9)PP David Pastrnak (10), Pavel Zacha (9) · snap xG 0.15 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 15:07 | David Pastrnak (7) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.11 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 16:01 | Rasmus Dahlin (1)PP Zach Benson (8), Tage Thompson (5) · slap xG 0.05 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 19:39 | Mark Kastelic (3) Tanner Jeannot (3), Sean Kuraly (3) · poke xG 0.57 | 1–3 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 7:00 | Josh Doan (4) Alex Tuch (7), Owen Power (3) · bat xG 0.39 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 14:25 | Alex Tuch (4) Rasmus Dahlin (8) · wrist xG 0.12 | 3–3 ▶ | |
| Overtime | |||
| 2:07 | Marat Khusnutdinov (1) Fraser Minten (2) · snap xG 0.26 | 3–4 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| BUF | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | Expected goals | 2.78 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 4 |
| 2.99 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.63 |
| 69 | Shot attempts | 59 |
| 61 | Unblocked attempts | 40 |
| 40 | Shots on goal | 22 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 15:23 | BOS | Goalie | Goalie · Korpisalo +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.03 xG, 20 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 2:50 | BOS | No shift | No shift · Lindholm, 23:29 on the bench
No shift after 7:20 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (9:37) before that |
| 12:10 | BUF | No shift | No shift · Malenstyn, 11:53 on the bench
No shift from the end of the 2nd to 13:55 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (10:10) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 72 | Tage Thompson | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 9 | 0.38 | 1 | 0 | 19:51 |
| 89 | Alex Tuch | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 6 | 0.38 | 1 | 0 | 19:19 |
| 20 | Jiri Kulich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | 1 | 0 | 18:05 |
| 91 | Josh Doan | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.85 | 0 | 1 | 16:38 |
| 6 | Zach Benson | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 1 | 16:18 |
| 17 | Jason Zucker | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 8 | 0.89 | 2 | 0 | 15:28 |
| 12 | Jordan Greenway | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.23 | 3 | 0 | 15:22 |
| 71 | Ryan McLeod | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 |
| 22 | Jack Quinn | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.06 | 1 | 1 | 14:36 |
| 19 | Peyton Krebs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 3 | 1 | 11:33 |
| 29 | Beck Malenstyn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 6 | 2 | 11:31 |
| 44 | Josh Dunne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 09:01 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 26 | Rasmus Dahlin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0.26 | 1 | 3 | 25:49 |
| 23 | Mattias Samuelsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 3 | 23:49 |
| 24 | Bowen Byram | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 2 | 4 | 19:50 |
| 25 | Owen Power | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.07 | 1 | 1 | 18:02 |
| 21 | Conor Timmins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 15:56 |
| 7 | Michael Kesselring | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 2 | 14:50 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | 22 | 4 | 18 | .818 | 2.78 | -1.22 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 88 | David Pastrnak | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 11 | 0.31 | 1 | 1 | 20:17 |
| 39 | Morgan Geekie | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 1 | 18:32 |
| 18 | Pavel Zacha | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 |
| 33 | Viktor Arvidsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 |
| 84 | Tanner Jeannot | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | 0 | 1 | 15:21 |
| 92 | Marat Khusnutdinov | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 |
| 93 | Fraser Minten | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 15:15 |
| 52 | Sean Kuraly | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 14:29 |
| 11 | Casey Mittelstadt | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 |
| 47 | Mark Kastelic | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 0 | 12:37 |
| 81 | Michael Eyssimont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 12:27 |
| 28 | Elias Lindholm | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 09:37 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 73 | Charlie McAvoy | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 0.01 | 2 | 1 | 26:31 |
| 91 | Nikita Zadorov | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.08 | 2 | 0 | 22:54 |
| 27 | Hampus Lindholm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0 | 20:44 |
| 20 | Henri Jokiharju | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 17:14 |
| 20 | Andrew Peeke | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 16:51 |
| 45 | Jonathan Aspirot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 2 | 0 | 14:04 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo | 40 | 3 | 37 | .925 | 4.15 | +1.15 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89 Alex Tuch R | +3.03 | +1.45 | +0.25 | +1.33 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.02 | — | 19:19 |
| 26 Rasmus Dahlin D | +2.69 | +1.45 | +0.17 | +0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 25:49 |
| 91 Josh Doan R | +2.39 | +0.75 | +0.55 | +1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 16:38 |
| 71 Ryan McLeod C | +1.30 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +1.21 | +0.15 | -0.04 | -0.02 | — | 14:44 |
| 6 Zach Benson L | +1.20 | +0.70 | +0.15 | +0.29 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 16:18 |
| 72 Tage Thompson C | +1.17 | +0.55 | +0.24 | +0.37 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 19:51 |
| 25 Owen Power D | +1.16 | +0.55 | +0.05 | +0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 18:02 |
| 4 Bowen Byram D | +0.99 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | — | 19:50 |
| 23 Mattias Samuelsson D | +0.63 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 23:49 |
| 20 Jiri Kulich C | +0.46 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.47 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 18:05 |
| 21 Conor Timmins D | +0.35 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:56 |
| 44 Josh Dunne C | +0.34 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.32 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | — | 9:01 |
| 17 Jason Zucker L | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.58 | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 15:28 |
| 19 Peyton Krebs C | +0.16 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.10 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 11:33 |
| 8 Michael Kesselring D | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.12 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 14:50 |
| 29 Beck Malenstyn L | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 11:31 |
| 12 Jordan Greenway L | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -0.03 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:22 |
| 22 Jack Quinn R | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:36 |
| 34 Alex Lyon G | -1.22 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.22 | 61:33 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 Mark Kastelic C | +1.58 | +0.75 | +0.41 | +0.26 | +0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 12:37 |
| 88 David Pastrnak R | +1.28 | +1.45 | +0.20 | -0.25 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 20:17 |
| 70 Joonas Korpisalo G | +1.15 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.15 | 62:07 |
| 84 Tanner Jeannot L | +1.01 | +0.70 | +0.05 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 15:21 |
| 52 Sean Kuraly C | +0.80 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 14:29 |
| 39 Morgan Geekie C | +0.64 | +0.75 | +0.19 | -0.49 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 18:32 |
| 92 Marat Khusnutdinov C | +0.53 | +0.75 | +0.17 | -0.42 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 15:20 |
| 91 Nikita Zadorov D | +0.52 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 22:54 |
| 73 Charlie McAvoy D | +0.35 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 26:31 |
| 28 Elias Lindholm C | +0.31 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.16 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 9:37 |
| 93 Fraser Minten C | +0.23 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -0.57 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.07 | — | 15:15 |
| 45 Jonathan Aspirot D | -0.29 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 14:04 |
| 18 Pavel Zacha C | -0.42 | +0.55 | +0.17 | -0.81 | -0.30 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 17:22 |
| 20 Henri Jokiharju D | -0.51 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:14 |
| 81 Michael Eyssimont C | -0.78 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:27 |
| 11 Casey Mittelstadt C | -0.92 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.99 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.02 | — | 13:15 |
| 71 Viktor Arvidsson L | -0.94 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -1.13 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 15:44 |
| 26 Andrew Peeke D | -1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:51 |
| 27 Hampus Lindholm D | -1.39 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 20:44 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.