Boston Bruins
Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 69 | 195 | 182 | +13 | 60.5% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Boston Bruins sit right on the Eastern Conference playoff bubble, holding a 69.6% playoff probability with a projected finish just above the cutoff. While they are more likely in than out, the margin for error is slim, making the final 25 games critical.
Record and Recent Performance
Boston’s 32-20-5 record gives them 69 points through 57 games and a 60.5% points percentage, which is playoff-caliber but not comfortably so. Their +13 goal differential, driven by 195 goals for and 182 against, suggests a solid but not dominant team profile. A 59.9% overall team strength aligns closely with their results, with a pronounced split between an excellent home strength of 71.8% and a much weaker 49.5% on the road. Encouragingly, their recent form sits at 75.0%, indicating they are playing some of their best hockey at the right time.
The Competition
The Bruins are currently seventh in the conference race, trailing Montreal, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh, all of whom project to clear 99 points and carry playoff odds above 80%. Just behind Boston, the New York Islanders sit tied at 69 points but with one more game played and a projected 96.7 points, making them the immediate cutline threat. Columbus is the most dangerous chaser, projecting to 96.0 points with a strong 60.7% team strength, while Washington and Ottawa likely need a surge to re-enter the picture. Boston realistically needs to outpace at least one of the Islanders or Blue Jackets to stay safely in.
Remaining Schedule
The Bruins have 25 games left, with a road-heavy split of 14 away and 11 at home, which is notable given their sub-50% road strength. Their opponents average a 56.0% strength, slightly tougher than league average, though overall schedule difficulty is rated as average. With an expected 28.7 points remaining, Boston is projected to finish at 97.7 points, narrowly above the projected cutoff of 96.7. That leaves little cushion, meaning even a small dip in performance could be costly.
Outlook
Boston controls its fate but not by much, and continued strong play is required to convert a borderline position into a secure playoff berth. If their recent form holds and they can avoid giving away points on the road, the Bruins should sneak in, but the race is tight enough that the final weeks are likely to feel like playoff hockey well before April.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 70.1% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 95–101 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 73.7% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.9% | 71.8% | 49.5% | 53.4% | 75.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | David Pastrnak | R | 52 | 22 | 49 | 71 | +2 | 0 | 61 | 20 | 20:20 | |
| 39 | Morgan Geekie | C | 56 | 32 | 22 | 54 | -1 | 0 | 89 | 20 | 17:25 | |
| 73 | Charlie McAvoy | D | 45 | 4 | 35 | 39 | +5 | 0 | 55 | 85 | 24:10 | |
| 18 | Pavel Zacha | C | 54 | 15 | 22 | 37 | -5 | 0 | 42 | 21 | 17:09 | |
| 28 | Elias Lindholm | C | 44 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 42 | 17:28 | |
| 93 | Fraser Minten | C | 57 | 14 | 15 | 29 | +18 | 0 | 100 | 35 | 14:52 | |
| 71 | Viktor Arvidsson | L | 45 | 14 | 14 | 28 | +8 | 0 | 16 | 26 | 14:28 | |
| 11 | Casey Mittelstadt | C | 47 | 12 | 16 | 28 | +1 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 15:04 | |
| 92 | Marat Khusnutdinov | C | 52 | 12 | 14 | 26 | +9 | 0 | 28 | 27 | 14:19 | |
| 6 | Mason Lohrei | D | 52 | 6 | 17 | 23 | +8 | 0 | 27 | 67 | 16:39 | |
| 84 | Tanner Jeannot | L | 53 | 6 | 14 | 20 | +3 | 0 | 164 | 42 | 13:17 | |
| 27 | Hampus Lindholm | D | 43 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -8 | 0 | 6 | 76 | 22:07 | |
| 47 | Mark Kastelic | C | 57 | 9 | 8 | 17 | +6 | 0 | 158 | 46 | 13:15 | |
| 81 | Michael Eyssimont | C | 44 | 8 | 9 | 17 | -3 | 0 | 34 | 12 | 10:59 | |
| 91 | Nikita Zadorov | D | 56 | 1 | 16 | 17 | +20 | 0 | 139 | 78 | 21:40 | |
| 21 | Alex Steeves | C | 38 | 9 | 7 | 16 | +6 | 0 | 124 | 25 | 12:04 | |
| 52 | Sean Kuraly | C | 57 | 4 | 12 | 16 | +1 | 0 | 63 | 36 | 13:51 | |
| 26 | Andrew Peeke | D | 56 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -7 | 0 | 67 | 101 | 19:37 | |
| 20 | Henri Jokiharju | D | 33 | 0 | 9 | 9 | +3 | 0 | 19 | 26 | 17:57 | |
| 45 | Jonathan Aspirot | D | 37 | 2 | 5 | 7 | +22 | 0 | 60 | 44 | 16:32 | |
| 43 | Jordan Harris | D | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15:37 | |
| 51 | Matthew Poitras | C | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:07 | |
| 18 | John Beecher → CGY | C | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10:24 | |
| 74 | Vladislav Kolyachonok ← DAL | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12:05 | |
| 28 | Jeffrey Viel | L | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 27 | 4 | 9:30 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | @ FLA | 5 - 4 | L (OT/SO) |
| Feb 01 | @ TBL | 6 - 5 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 29 | vs PHI | 6 - 3 | W |
| Jan 27 | vs NSH | 3 - 2 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 26 | @ NYR | 4 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 24 | vs MTL | 4 - 3 | W |
| Jan 22 | vs VGK | 4 - 3 | W |
| Jan 20 | @ DAL | 6 - 2 | L |
| Jan 17 | @ CHI | 2 - 5 | W |
| Jan 15 | vs SEA | 4 - 2 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 19:00 | vs Columbus Blue Jackets | Home | 60.7% | 1.25 | BOS (57%) |
| Feb 28, 15:00 | @ Philadelphia Flyers | Away | 48.5% | 1.12 | PHI (50%) |
| Mar 03, 19:00 | vs Pittsburgh Penguins | Home | 62.9% | 1.15 | BOS (51%) |
| Mar 05, 20:00 | @ Nashville Predators | Away | 45.6% | 1.12 | NSH (50%) |
| Mar 07, 12:30 | vs Washington Capitals | Home | 54.2% | 1.30 | BOS (60%) |
| Mar 08, 16:30 | @ Pittsburgh Penguins | Away | 62.9% | 1.04 | PIT (55%) |
| Mar 10, 19:00 | vs Los Angeles Kings | Home | 49.6% | 1.24 | BOS (56%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | vs San Jose Sharks | Home | 46.8% | 1.36 | BOS (63%) |
| Mar 14, 15:00 | @ Washington Capitals | Away | 54.2% | 1.04 | WSH (55%) |
| Mar 16, 19:00 | @ New Jersey Devils | Away | 43.8% | 1.17 | BOS (53%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.8 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.