| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 |
 |
3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 34 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Scoring
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2:33 | |
Bradly Nadeau (1) Unassisted · snap xG 0.03 | 0–1 ▶ |
| 5:21 | |
Mike Reilly (1)SH Unassisted · wrap-around xG 0.39 | 0–2 ▶ |
| 10:21 | |
Jordan Martinook (2) Jordan Staal (1), Andrei Svechnikov (1) · wrist xG 0.56 | 0–3 ▶ |
| 13:20 | |
Matthew Schaefer (3)PP Kyle Palmieri (4), Jonathan Drouin (6) · snap xG 0.04 | 1–3 ▶ |
| 2nd Period | |||
| No scoring | |||
| 3rd Period | |||
| 1:51 | |
Jackson Blake (3) Taylor Hall (4), Brandon Bussi (1) · wrist xG 0.15 | 1–4 ▶ |
| 10:48 | |
Simon Holmstrom (3) Tony DeAngelo (4) · wrist xG 0.17 | 2–4 ▶ |
| 10:59 | |
Andrei Svechnikov (2) Alexander Nikishin (4), Logan Stankoven (3) · snap xG 0.16 | 2–5 ▶ |
| 19:49 | |
Logan Stankoven (4) Nikolaj Ehlers (4) · wrist xG 0.21 | 2–6 ▶ |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| NYI | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.21 | Expected goals | 5.27 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 6 |
| 1.23 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 3.10 |
| 54 | Shot attempts | 73 |
| 42 | Unblocked attempts | 57 |
| 28 | Shots on goal | 34 |
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | CAR | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NYI 1.40–0.30
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:30 to 10:30 of the 1st; goals 3–0 |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 3:40 | CAR | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NYI 1.17–0.11
In xG over 10 minutes, 13:40 of the 1st to 3:40 of the 2nd; neither team scored |
Shot map
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
Box score
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 92 | Jonathan Drouin | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 0 | 19:19 |
| 21 | Kyle Palmieri | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.10 | 1 | 0 | 19:02 |
| 14 | Bo Horvat | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.35 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 |
| 72 | Anders Lee | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.17 | 0 | 1 | 18:53 |
| 51 | Emil Heineman | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 9 | 0.59 | 6 | 0 | 18:25 |
| 11 | Anthony Duclair | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 1 | 17:45 |
| 92 | Simon Holmstrom | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 2 | 16:56 |
| 44 | Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | 2 | 3 | 15:28 |
| 53 | Casey Cizikas | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.05 | 4 | 0 | 14:55 |
| 72 | Maxim Tsyplakov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.02 | 2 | 0 | 11:04 |
| 32 | Kyle MacLean | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.02 | 4 | 0 | 10:32 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 28 | Alexander Romanov | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.01 | 2 | 2 | 19:40 |
| 48 | Matthew Schaefer | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 0.09 | 1 | 0 | 18:38 |
| 77 | Tony DeAngelo | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.05 | 3 | 1 | 16:59 |
| 6 | Ryan Pulock | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 2 | 15:52 |
| 3 | Adam Pelech | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 |
| 24 | Scott Mayfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 14:55 |
| 34 | Adam Boqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11:23 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Rittich | 34 | 6 | 28 | .824 | 5.27 | -0.73 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 20 | Sebastian Aho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.76 | 2 | 0 | 18:06 |
| 24 | Seth Jarvis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.56 | 0 | 1 | 17:49 |
| 11 | Jordan Staal | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.09 | 2 | 2 | 16:44 |
| 37 | Andrei Svechnikov | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 0.35 | 1 | 0 | 15:50 |
| 48 | Jordan Martinook | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.72 | 2 | 3 | 15:50 |
| 27 | Nikolaj Ehlers | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.06 | 1 | 0 | 14:58 |
| 71 | Taylor Hall | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 |
| 22 | Logan Stankoven | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 |
| 53 | Jackson Blake | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 8 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 |
| 82 | Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.06 | 2 | 1 | 10:33 |
| 77 | Mark Jankowski | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 1 | 09:32 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 5 | Jalen Chatfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.39 | 1 | 0 | 22:02 |
| 26 | Sean Walker | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 5 | 0.05 | 1 | 1 | 21:56 |
| 21 | Alexander Nikishin | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 | 0.17 | 4 | 1 | 20:28 |
| 6 | Mike Reilly | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 0.44 | 1 | 0 | 19:56 |
| 64 | Joel Nystrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 |
| 62 | Charles Alexis Legault | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.05 | 2 | 0 | 15:40 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi | 28 | 2 | 26 | .929 | 2.21 | +0.21 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 Tony DeAngelo D | +0.67 | +0.70 | +0.03 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:59 |
| 21 Kyle Palmieri C | +0.44 | +0.70 | +0.06 | -0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 19:02 |
| 48 Matthew Schaefer D | +0.37 | +0.75 | +0.06 | -0.53 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 18:38 |
| 10 Simon Holmstrom R | +0.25 | +0.75 | +0.19 | -0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 16:56 |
| 11 Anthony Duclair L | +0.05 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:45 |
| 53 Casey Cizikas C | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 14:55 |
| 34 Adam Boqvist D | -0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 11:23 |
| 28 Alexander Romanov D | -0.42 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 19:40 |
| 29 Jonathan Drouin L | -0.45 | +0.55 | +0.11 | -1.09 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 19:19 |
| 44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | -0.51 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.76 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.15 | — | 15:28 |
| 33 David Rittich G | -0.58 | 0.00 | — | — | +0.15 | — | — | -0.73 | 60:00 |
| 32 Kyle MacLean C | -0.64 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.68 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 10:32 |
| 51 Emil Heineman L | -0.66 | 0.00 | +0.38 | -1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 18:25 |
| 27 Anders Lee L | -0.86 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -1.17 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.03 | — | 18:53 |
| 14 Bo Horvat C | -0.92 | 0.00 | +0.23 | -1.06 | -0.15 | +0.06 | 0.00 | — | 18:57 |
| 7 Maxim Tsyplakov R | -0.98 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.94 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 11:04 |
| 6 Ryan Pulock D | -1.09 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 15:52 |
| 24 Scott Mayfield D | -1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:55 |
| 3 Adam Pelech D | -1.27 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:17 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Logan Stankoven C | +2.97 | +1.30 | +0.25 | +1.48 | 0.00 | -0.08 | +0.02 | — | 14:04 |
| 37 Andrei Svechnikov R | +2.40 | +1.30 | +0.23 | +1.04 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:50 |
| 48 Jordan Martinook L | +2.37 | +0.75 | +0.47 | +1.05 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.11 | — | 15:50 |
| 21 Alexander Nikishin D | +2.24 | +0.70 | +0.11 | +1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 20:28 |
| 71 Taylor Hall L | +2.03 | +0.70 | +0.13 | +1.38 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 14:43 |
| 11 Jordan Staal C | +2.01 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +1.04 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.06 | — | 16:44 |
| 53 Jackson Blake R | +1.80 | +0.75 | +0.44 | +0.78 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 12:12 |
| 5 Jalen Chatfield D | +1.60 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 22:02 |
| 27 Nikolaj Ehlers L | +1.44 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:58 |
| 64 Joel Nystrom D | +1.32 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:23 |
| 26 Sean Walker D | +1.24 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 21:56 |
| 6 Mike Reilly D | +1.10 | +0.75 | +0.28 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 19:56 |
| 29 Bradly Nadeau L | +0.72 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 10:02 |
| 32 Brandon Bussi G | +0.61 | +0.55 | — | — | -0.15 | — | — | +0.21 | 60:00 |
| 20 Sebastian Aho C | +0.57 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +0.13 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.00 | — | 18:06 |
| 24 Seth Jarvis C | +0.51 | 0.00 | +0.36 | +0.10 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 17:49 |
| 82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | +0.29 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 10:33 |
| 77 Mark Jankowski L | +0.19 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 9:32 |
| 62 Charles Alexis Legault D | -0.01 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:40 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.