New York Islanders
Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 32 | 21 | 5 | 69 | 169 | 162 | +7 | 59.5% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The New York Islanders are right on the playoff cutline with a 64.2% chance to qualify, projecting almost exactly to the expected cutoff at 96.7 points. They are much more likely fighting for a wild card than moving up the standings, with minimal odds to win the division or conference.
Record and Recent Performance
At 32-21-5, the Islanders have 69 points through 58 games and a 59.5% points percentage, which places them firmly in the bubble tier rather than among the East’s elites. Their +7 goal differential, with 169 goals for and 162 against, reflects a solid but unspectacular profile that matches their 55.9% overall team strength rating. Recent form sits at 60.0%, suggesting they are playing roughly to their season average rather than surging or collapsing, which explains why their playoff probability has barely moved despite staying in the race.
The Competition
The Islanders are currently eighth in the conference, with Boston directly above them at 69 points but a higher projected finish of 97.7 points, and Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Montreal all projecting to finish above 99 points. That makes it difficult for New York to realistically climb out of the final wild card spot without a sustained hot streak. Behind them, Washington and Ottawa project well short of the cutoff, but Columbus looms as a real threat, with a stronger 60.7% team rating and a 96.0-point projection that puts pressure on the Islanders to avoid slipping.
Remaining Schedule
New York has 24 games left, split fairly evenly with 13 at home and 11 on the road, and their home and away strength numbers are nearly identical, so venue is unlikely to swing results dramatically. The remaining opponents average a 54.0% strength, slightly above league average, but the overall schedule is considered balanced and of average difficulty. With expected remaining points of 27.7, the Islanders are projected to land right at 96.7 points, meaning even a small underperformance could drop them below the playoff line.
Outlook
The Islanders control their fate but have little margin for error, as their current projection is essentially the playoff cutoff itself. If they maintain their current level of play, they should squeak in, but any prolonged slump could allow Columbus or Boston to pass them. The path is clear but narrow, and consistency rather than upside will determine whether New York extends its season.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 63.9% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 94–100 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 68.2% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.9% | 57.1% | 56.1% | 52.1% | 60.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mathew Barzal | C | 56 | 17 | 33 | 50 | +15 | 0 | 20 | 36 | 20:43 | |
| 14 | Bo Horvat | C | 44 | 24 | 16 | 40 | +8 | 0 | 36 | 24 | 20:26 | |
| 48 | Matthew Schaefer | D | 57 | 16 | 23 | 39 | +10 | 0 | 26 | 76 | 24:03 | |
| 27 | Anders Lee | L | 57 | 11 | 20 | 31 | +8 | 0 | 53 | 27 | 15:24 | |
| 10 | Simon Holmstrom | R | 55 | 13 | 16 | 29 | +8 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 16:30 | |
| 11 | Anthony Duclair | L | 53 | 11 | 14 | 25 | +3 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 13:20 | |
| 44 | Jean-Gabriel Pageau | C | 49 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 43 | 15:30 | |
| 77 | Tony DeAngelo | D | 57 | 4 | 20 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 50 | 18:44 | |
| 51 | Emil Heineman | L | 57 | 15 | 8 | 23 | -6 | 0 | 184 | 40 | 16:47 | |
| 6 | Ryan Pulock | D | 55 | 3 | 20 | 23 | +12 | 0 | 39 | 103 | 21:07 | |
| 29 | Jonathan Drouin | L | 50 | 3 | 17 | 20 | -2 | 0 | 12 | 18 | 17:18 | |
| 21 | Kyle Palmieri | C | 25 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -2 | 0 | 19 | 9 | 18:52 | |
| 49 | Max Shabanov | R | 39 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -3 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 13:58 | |
| 53 | Casey Cizikas | C | 56 | 7 | 8 | 15 | +1 | 0 | 109 | 41 | 11:39 | |
| 64 | Calum Ritchie | C | 40 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 0 | 11 | 23 | 12:07 | |
| 3 | Adam Pelech | D | 57 | 3 | 7 | 10 | +10 | 0 | 39 | 100 | 20:51 | |
| 24 | Scott Mayfield | D | 55 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 0 | 53 | 66 | 17:31 | |
| 32 | Kyle MacLean | C | 41 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 0 | 83 | 13 | 10:44 | |
| 16 | Marc Gatcomb | C | 29 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 126 | 18 | 10:20 | |
| 81 | Ondrej Palat | L | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 15:41 | |
| 42 | Maxim Tsyplakov | R | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 0 | 45 | 4 | 9:39 | |
| 4 | Carson Soucy | D | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 14:44 | |
| 36 | Isaiah George | D | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13:17 | |
| 28 | Alexander Romanov | D | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 19:26 | |
| 34 | Adam Boqvist | D | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 12:37 | |
| 4 | Cole McWard | D | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13:44 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | @ NJD | 1 - 3 | W |
| Feb 03 | vs PIT | 5 - 4 | W (OT/SO) |
| Feb 02 | @ WSH | 4 - 1 | L |
| Jan 31 | vs NSH | 3 - 4 | L |
| Jan 29 | @ NYR | 1 - 2 | W |
| Jan 28 | vs NYR | 5 - 2 | W |
| Jan 26 | @ PHI | 0 - 4 | W |
| Jan 24 | vs BUF | 0 - 5 | L |
| Jan 21 | @ SEA | 4 - 1 | L |
| Jan 19 | @ VAN | 3 - 4 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 19:00 | @ Montréal Canadiens | Away | 58.5% | 1.15 | NYI (52%) |
| Feb 28, 18:00 | @ Columbus Blue Jackets | Away | 60.7% | 1.05 | CBJ (54%) |
| Mar 01, 18:30 | vs Florida Panthers | Home | 46.7% | 1.23 | NYI (56%) |
| Mar 04, 22:00 | @ Anaheim Ducks | Away | 56.6% | 1.04 | ANA (55%) |
| Mar 05, 21:30 | @ Los Angeles Kings | Away | 49.6% | 1.24 | NYI (57%) |
| Mar 07, 22:00 | @ San Jose Sharks | Away | 46.8% | 1.17 | NYI (52%) |
| Mar 10, 19:30 | @ St. Louis Blues | Away | 35.1% | 1.22 | NYI (56%) |
| Mar 13, 19:00 | vs Los Angeles Kings | Home | 49.6% | 1.14 | NYI (51%) |
| Mar 14, 19:00 | vs Calgary Flames | Home | 44.6% | 1.37 | NYI (64%) |
| Mar 17, 19:00 | @ Toronto Maple Leafs | Away | 49.8% | 1.15 | NYI (51%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.8 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.