| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 31 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 28 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:42 | William Eklund (5) Philipp Kurashev (3) · wrist xG 0.15 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 12:12 | Philipp Kurashev (3) Alexander Wennberg (4) · wrist xG 0.26 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 15:47 | Alexander Wennberg (3) Mario Ferraro (2), Timothy Liljegren (2) · tip-in xG 0.05 | 0–3 ▶ | |
| 19:00 | Dawson Mercer (5)PP Jack Hughes (6), Dougie Hamilton (2) · tip-in xG 0.10 | 1–3 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 16:50 | Will Smith (4) Macklin Celebrini (11) · wrist xG 0.03 | 1–4 ▶ | |
| 18:30 | Tyler Toffoli (4) Dmitry Orlov (9), Timothy Liljegren (3) · tip-in xG 0.11 | 1–5 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 4:19 | Dawson Mercer (6)PP Dougie Hamilton (3), Jesper Bratt (9) · tip-in xG 0.08 | 2–5 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| NJD | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.87 | Expected goals | 2.61 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 5 |
| 1.41 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.13 |
| 65 | Shot attempts | 50 |
| 38 | Unblocked attempts | 36 |
| 31 | Shots on goal | 28 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 16:10 | SJS | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NJD 1.28–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:40 to 16:40 of the 1st; goals 2–0 |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 18:30 | NJD | Goalie | Goalie · Allen −2.4 goals saved
5 goals on 2.59 xG, 28 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 10:20 | SJS | No shift | No shift · Reaves, 21:11 on the bench
No shift after 17:40 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (6:22) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Nico Hischier | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.03 | 2 | 0 | 20:56 |
| 86 | Jack Hughes | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 18:17 |
| 91 | Dawson Mercer | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | 0.50 | 1 | 0 | 17:14 |
| 63 | Jesper Bratt | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 0.10 | 2 | 0 | 16:58 |
| 28 | Timo Meier | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 0.06 | 5 | 2 | 15:41 |
| 16 | Connor Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 |
| 47 | Paul Cotter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 13:42 |
| 81 | Arseny Gritsyuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.16 | 5 | 0 | 13:16 |
| 83 | Juho Lammikko | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.03 | 2 | 0 | 12:48 |
| 81 | Ondrej Palat | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.29 | 1 | 1 | 11:42 |
| 41 | Luke Glendening | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 3 | 1 | 11:32 |
| 11 | Stefan Noesen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 10:34 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 43 | Luke Hughes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.06 | 1 | 1 | 23:30 |
| 7 | Dougie Hamilton | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 7 | 0.06 | 2 | 0 | 22:30 |
| 71 | Jonas Siegenthaler | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 2 | 19:26 |
| 71 | Simon Nemec | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 7 | 0.19 | 0 | 2 | 17:34 |
| 5 | Brenden Dillon | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 16:35 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen | 28 | 5 | 23 | .821 | 2.61 | -2.39 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 71 | Macklin Celebrini | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 1 | 20:00 |
| 21 | Alexander Wennberg | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 0.19 | 0 | 2 | 19:44 |
| 96 | Philipp Kurashev | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 5 | 0.51 | 1 | 0 | 19:10 |
| 2 | Will Smith | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0.14 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 |
| 27 | William Eklund | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 3 | 18:17 |
| 73 | Tyler Toffoli | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0.31 | 0 | 2 | 17:06 |
| 51 | Collin Graf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 13:32 |
| 10 | Ty Dellandrea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 2 | 1 | 12:44 |
| 53 | Jeff Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 1 | 12:03 |
| 23 | Barclay Goodrow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 10:45 |
| 54 | Patrick Giles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 10:10 |
| 75 | Ryan Reaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 0 | 06:22 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 27 | Timothy Liljegren | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 7 | 0.24 | 3 | 1 | 23:10 |
| 38 | Mario Ferraro | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 4 | 21:32 |
| 9 | Dmitry Orlov | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.03 | 3 | 4 | 21:16 |
| 3 | John Klingberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 0.05 | 2 | 2 | 20:45 |
| 85 | Shakir Mukhamadullin | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.07 | 1 | 2 | 16:24 |
| 6 | Sam Dickinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 14:23 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic | 31 | 2 | 29 | .935 | 1.87 | -0.13 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 Dawson Mercer C | +1.12 | +1.50 | +0.33 | -0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:14 |
| 63 Jesper Bratt L | +0.61 | +0.55 | +0.07 | -0.11 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 16:58 |
| 7 Dougie Hamilton D | +0.54 | +1.25 | +0.04 | -0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 22:30 |
| 86 Jack Hughes C | +0.41 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.22 | 0.00 | -0.08 | +0.01 | — | 18:17 |
| 18 Ondrej Palat L | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.19 | -0.29 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 11:42 |
| 14 Luke Glendening C | +0.20 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.05 | — | 11:32 |
| 81 Arseny Gritsyuk R | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:16 |
| 47 Paul Cotter L | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:42 |
| 17 Simon Nemec D | -0.17 | 0.00 | +0.13 | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 17:34 |
| 11 Stefan Noesen R | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 10:34 |
| 5 Brenden Dillon D | -0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 16:35 |
| 24 Seamus Casey D | -0.35 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 18:07 |
| 83 Juho Lammikko C | -0.41 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.43 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.02 | — | 12:48 |
| 71 Jonas Siegenthaler D | -0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.50 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 19:26 |
| 16 Connor Brown R | -0.56 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:38 |
| 13 Nico Hischier C | -0.62 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.65 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 20:56 |
| 28 Timo Meier R | -0.83 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.96 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.08 | — | 15:41 |
| 43 Luke Hughes D | -0.89 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 23:30 |
| 34 Jake Allen G | -2.39 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -2.39 | 60:00 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 Philipp Kurashev C | +2.58 | +1.45 | +0.33 | +0.83 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 19:10 |
| 21 Alexander Wennberg C | +2.33 | +1.45 | +0.13 | +0.68 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.06 | — | 19:44 |
| 37 Timothy Liljegren D | +2.14 | +1.10 | +0.15 | +0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.03 | — | 23:10 |
| 9 Dmitry Orlov D | +1.71 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | — | 21:16 |
| 72 William Eklund L | +1.65 | +0.75 | +0.17 | +0.74 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 18:17 |
| 38 Mario Ferraro D | +1.56 | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | — | 21:32 |
| 73 Tyler Toffoli C | +1.33 | +0.75 | +0.20 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 17:06 |
| 71 Macklin Celebrini C | +1.20 | +0.70 | +0.15 | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.07 | — | 20:00 |
| 2 Will Smith C | +0.95 | +0.75 | +0.09 | +0.30 | -0.15 | -0.02 | -0.02 | — | 18:36 |
| 3 John Klingberg D | +0.65 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 20:45 |
| 75 Ryan Reaves R | +0.45 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:22 |
| 23 Barclay Goodrow C | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:45 |
| 54 Patrick Giles R | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.05 | — | 10:10 |
| 53 Jeff Skinner L | +0.35 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.31 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.01 | — | 12:03 |
| 85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 16:24 |
| 6 Sam Dickinson D | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:23 |
| 51 Collin Graf R | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 13:32 |
| 10 Ty Dellandrea C | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.07 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 12:44 |
| 33 Alex Nedeljkovic G | -0.13 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.13 | 60:00 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.