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Dallas StarsDAL 3–4 Final/SO Florida PanthersFLA

Saturday, November 1, 2025

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Dallas StarsDAL 02100 3 22
Florida PanthersFLA 02101 4 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
1:48 FLA Brad Marchand (6) Eetu Luostarinen (3), Anton Lundell (6) · wrist xG 0.09 0–1 ▶
4:02 FLA Sam Reinhart (6) Carter Verhaeghe (4), Evan Rodrigues (4) · wrist xG 0.04 0–2 ▶
14:47 DAL Wyatt Johnston (7)PP Sam Steel (2), Mikko Rantanen (9) · snap xG 0.21 1–2 ▶
15:01 DAL Justin Hryckowian (1)PP Thomas Harley (8), Sam Steel (3) · tip-in xG 0.12 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
12:26 FLA Sam Bennett (2) Gustav Forsling (5), Mackie Samoskevich (6) · backhand xG 0.10 2–3 ▶
17:19 DAL Mikko Rantanen (5) Sam Steel (4), Jason Robertson (7) · backhand xG 0.09 3–3 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
FLA Anton Lundell vs Casey DeSmith Saved
DAL Jason Robertson vs Sergei Bobrovsky Saved
FLA Sam Reinhart vs Casey DeSmith Saved
DAL Tyler Seguin vs Sergei Bobrovsky Missed
FLA Brad Marchand vs Casey DeSmith Goal
DAL Mikko Rantanen vs Sergei Bobrovsky Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 31%Deserve to win69% FLA
DALFLA
2.07Expected goals3.17
3Goals (no shootout)3
0.94Expected goals, 5 on 51.71
43Shot attempts66
30Unblocked attempts44
22Shots on goal28

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ FLA shoots
Thomas Harley: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:09) Justin Hryckowian: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:07) Esa Lindell: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:48) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 4:14) Sam Bennett: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 6:20) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.52 (P1 6:23) Evan Rodrigues: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:24) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:55) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:15) Cole Schwindt: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 10:40) Aaron Ekblad: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:58) Jason Robertson: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 15:13) Seth Jones: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:48) Brad Marchand: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:49) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:52) Brad Marchand: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:55) Justin Hryckowian: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:07) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:57) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:59) Sam Bennett: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:13) Mackie Samoskevich: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:18) Jesper Boqvist: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:19) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:32) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:08) Noah Gregor: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:52) A.J. Greer: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 7:08) Thomas Harley: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:38) Jason Robertson: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:28) Sam Bennett: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:54) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:41) Colin Blackwell: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:33) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 14:32) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:41) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:52) Jason Robertson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:06) Cole Schwindt: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:46) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:51) Gustav Forsling: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:23) Jason Robertson: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:08) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:48) Cole Schwindt: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:25) Evan Rodrigues: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 3:53) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:19) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:42) Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:05) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:35) Miro Heiskanen: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:02) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:47) Adam Erne: backhand, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:23) Sam Reinhart: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 14:28) Brad Marchand: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:27) Aaron Ekblad: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:11) Ilya Lyubushkin: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:42) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:44) Esa Lindell: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:58) Mikko Rantanen: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:05) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:05) Anton Lundell: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:03) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (OT 0:46) Aaron Ekblad: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 1:49) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:50) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 3:59) Sam Reinhart: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 4:08) Sam Bennett: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (OT 4:10) Mikko Rantanen: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 4:20) Mikko Rantanen: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 4:26) Thomas Harley: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 4:40) Thomas Harley: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 4:50) Brad Marchand: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:48) Sam Reinhart: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:02) Wyatt Johnston: GOAL, snap, 16 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 14:47) Justin Hryckowian: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 15:01) Sam Bennett: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:26) Mikko Rantanen: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:19)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
96 Mikko Rantanen 112 -1 60.40 1023:08
21 Jason Robertson 011 0 50.33 0221:45
53 Wyatt Johnston 101 -2 60.62 0020:00
91 Tyler Seguin 000 -1 00.00 0019:32
18 Sam Steel 033 0 00.00 2018:04
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 -1 20.04 0015:09
49 Justin Hryckowian 101 0 30.19 1214:02
15 Colin Blackwell 000 0 20.11 4112:57
10 Oskar Bäck 000 -1 00.00 0012:25
12 Radek Faksa 000 0 10.00 3011:55
11 Nathan Bastian 000 0 00.00 4011:04
73 Adam Erne 000 0 10.01 2011:04
Defense
55 Thomas Harley 011 -2 70.22 0226:47
4 Miro Heiskanen 000 -2 40.04 0325:12
23 Esa Lindell 000 0 40.10 0322:06
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 000 0 20.01 1719:57
6 Lian Bichsel 000 0 00.00 2214:41
36 Alexander Petrovic 000 0 00.00 1013:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Casey DeSmith 28325 .893 3.17 +0.17

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Sam Reinhart 101 +1 50.24 0222:31
23 Carter Verhaeghe 011 +1 50.22 0021:30
15 Anton Lundell 011 0 10.11 0120:44
17 Evan Rodrigues 011 +1 70.19 2019:14
63 Brad Marchand 101 0 80.17 2017:49
9 Sam Bennett 101 +1 60.53 0015:46
27 Eetu Luostarinen 011 +1 10.52 3015:14
11 Mackie Samoskevich 011 +1 40.09 0113:51
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 0 40.09 2111:57
79 Cole Schwindt 000 0 30.32 2010:18
18 A.J. Greer 000 0 10.17 8009:57
73 Noah Gregor 000 0 10.01 2009:27
Defense
77 Niko Mikkola 000 +1 10.03 3023:35
42 Gustav Forsling 011 0 40.05 0123:23
3 Seth Jones 000 +1 40.03 0123:02
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 -1 60.38 1121:48
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 +2 40.02 1115:56
2 Jeff Petry 000 +1 10.00 0015:32
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky 22319 .864 2.07 -0.93

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
18 Sam Steel C +1.86 +1.95 0.00 -0.09 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 18:04
96 Mikko Rantanen R +1.41 +1.30 +0.26 -0.14 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 23:08
21 Jason Robertson L +0.91 +0.55 +0.21 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:45
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.89 +0.75 +0.13 -0.40 +0.30 +0.02 +0.10 — 14:02
53 Wyatt Johnston C +0.77 +0.75 +0.40 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:00
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D +0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.31 — 19:57
1 Casey DeSmith G +0.17 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.17 64:36
23 Esa Lindell D +0.12 0.00 +0.07 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:06
55 Thomas Harley D +0.10 +0.70 +0.15 -0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 26:47
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.19 0.00 +0.07 -0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 12:57
6 Lian Bichsel D -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:41
12 Radek Faksa C -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.24 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 11:55
28 Alexander Petrovic D -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:36
73 Adam Erne L -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:04
91 Tyler Seguin C -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.43 0.00 +0.09 -0.02 — 19:32
10 Oskar Bäck C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.55 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 12:25
11 Nathan Bastian R -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:04
22 Mavrik Bourque C -0.41 0.00 +0.03 -0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:09
4 Miro Heiskanen D -0.70 0.00 +0.03 -0.88 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 25:12

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
9 Sam Bennett C +1.61 +0.75 +0.34 +0.53 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:46
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +1.38 +0.70 +0.14 +0.62 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 — 21:30
17 Evan Rodrigues C +1.29 +0.55 +0.12 +0.62 0.00 -0.02 +0.02 — 19:14
13 Sam Reinhart C +1.28 +0.75 +0.15 +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:31
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +1.28 +0.55 +0.06 +0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:51
77 Niko Mikkola D +1.04 0.00 +0.02 +0.91 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 23:35
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +0.99 +0.70 +0.34 -0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:14
6 Donovan Sebrango D +0.82 0.00 +0.02 +0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:56
63 Brad Marchand L +0.80 +0.75 +0.11 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 17:49
3 Seth Jones D +0.64 0.00 +0.02 +0.91 -0.30 0.00 +0.01 — 23:02
2 Jeff Petry D +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:32
15 Anton Lundell C +0.49 +0.55 +0.07 -0.12 0.00 -0.06 +0.05 — 20:44
70 Jesper Boqvist C +0.43 0.00 +0.06 +0.35 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 11:57
10 A.J. Greer L +0.33 0.00 +0.11 +0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:57
79 Cole Schwindt R +0.31 0.00 +0.21 +0.13 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 10:18
42 Gustav Forsling D +0.30 +0.70 +0.03 -0.32 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 23:23
18 Noah Gregor L +0.21 0.00 +0.01 +0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:27
5 Aaron Ekblad D -0.23 0.00 +0.25 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:48
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G -0.93 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.93 65:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.