| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 27 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:05 | Cole Caufield (10) Nick Suzuki (15) · snap xG 0.24 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 9:25 | Juraj Slafkovský (6)PP Nick Suzuki (16), Cole Caufield (5) · snap xG 0.22 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 11:53 | Drake Batherson (5) Unassisted · snap xG 0.06 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 19:49 | Michael Amadio (3) Shane Pinto (4), Artem Zub (7) · deflected xG 0.82 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 12:27 | Tim Stützle (6) Drake Batherson (10), Tyler Kleven (1) · backhand xG 0.08 | 3–2 ▶ | |
| 17:37 | Ivan Demidov (3) Lane Hutson (10), Mike Matheson (4) · slap xG 0.14 | 3–3 ▶ | |
| Overtime | |||
| 1:40 | Alex Newhook (5) Unassisted · snap xG 0.15 | 3–4 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| OTT | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.69 | Expected goals | 3.45 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 4 |
| 1.90 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.37 |
| 55 | Shot attempts | 51 |
| 34 | Unblocked attempts | 39 |
| 17 | Shots on goal | 27 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:40 | OTT | No shift | No shift · MacDermid, 38:57 on the bench
No shift after 12:00 of the 1st; 4 shifts (2:04) before that |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 9:30 | OTT | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced MTL 1.22–0.09
In xG over 10 minutes, 19:40 of the 2nd to 9:40 of the 3rd; goals 1–0 |
| 16:20 | OTT | No shift | No shift · Cousins, 13:45 on the bench
No shift after 1:15 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (8:01) before that |
| 19:10 | OTT | No shift | No shift · Zetterlund, 10:55 on the bench
No shift after 9:05 of the 3rd; 17 shifts (12:10) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 12 | Shane Pinto | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.33 | 2 | 2 | 21:01 |
| 71 | Ridly Greig | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.39 | 2 | 0 | 20:42 |
| 24 | Dylan Cozens | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.00 | 4 | 1 | 19:52 |
| 18 | Tim Stützle | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.08 | 2 | 2 | 19:31 |
| 19 | Drake Batherson | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 0.35 | 4 | 0 | 17:40 |
| 28 | Claude Giroux | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 16:17 |
| 22 | Michael Amadio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.86 | 2 | 0 | 16:08 |
| 16 | David Perron | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 1 | 15:01 |
| 20 | Lars Eller | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.13 | 2 | 0 | 13:51 |
| 20 | Fabian Zetterlund | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0 | 1 | 12:10 |
| 21 | Nick Cousins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 08:01 |
| 23 | Kurtis MacDermid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 02:04 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 85 | Jake Sanderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 8 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 | 26:08 |
| 72 | Thomas Chabot | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 2 | 3 | 25:05 |
| 2 | Artem Zub | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 1 | 22:45 |
| 4 | Nick Jensen | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.01 | 2 | 0 | 20:53 |
| 43 | Tyler Kleven | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 1 | 11:48 |
| 33 | Nikolas Matinpalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | 27 | 4 | 23 | .852 | 3.45 | -0.55 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0 | 2 | 19:06 |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovský | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 3 | 1 | 18:51 |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 1 | 17:55 |
| 15 | Alex Newhook | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0.51 | 2 | 1 | 16:51 |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 0.38 | 1 | 1 | 16:03 |
| 91 | Oliver Kapanen | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 |
| 76 | Zachary Bolduc | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.37 | 5 | 0 | 15:28 |
| 77 | Kirby Dach | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 0 | 15:03 |
| 71 | Jake Evans | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.10 | 1 | 1 | 12:01 |
| 90 | Joseph Veleno | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 12:00 |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 0 | 10:41 |
| 7 | Brendan Gallagher | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.21 | 2 | 0 | 10:14 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 8 | Mike Matheson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.10 | 1 | 5 | 25:02 |
| 48 | Lane Hutson | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 1 | 22:47 |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 21:18 |
| 45 | Alexandre Carrier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 2 | 3 | 19:53 |
| 3 | Jayden Struble | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.03 | 2 | 0 | 15:44 |
| 72 | Arber Xhekaj | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 1 | 2 | 14:32 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault | 17 | 3 | 14 | .824 | 2.69 | -0.31 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Michael Amadio R | +1.85 | +0.75 | +0.56 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:08 |
| 19 Drake Batherson R | +1.68 | +1.45 | +0.23 | +0.17 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:40 |
| 12 Shane Pinto C | +1.35 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.03 | +0.10 | — | 21:01 |
| 2 Artem Zub D | +1.26 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 22:45 |
| 85 Jake Sanderson D | +1.04 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 26:08 |
| 18 Tim Stützle C | +0.77 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.04 | -0.15 | -0.03 | +0.10 | — | 19:31 |
| 89 Lars Eller C | +0.34 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:51 |
| 28 Claude Giroux R | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.04 | 0.00 | — | 16:17 |
| 43 Tyler Kleven D | +0.09 | +0.55 | +0.09 | -0.69 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 11:48 |
| 33 Nikolas Matinpalo D | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 11:29 |
| 57 David Perron L | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 15:01 |
| 21 Nick Cousins C | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.26 | +0.15 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 8:01 |
| 23 Kurtis MacDermid L | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.11 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 2:04 |
| 24 Dylan Cozens C | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 19:52 |
| 20 Fabian Zetterlund L | -0.33 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 12:10 |
| 72 Thomas Chabot D | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 25:05 |
| 35 Linus Ullmark G | -0.55 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.55 | 61:40 |
| 71 Ridly Greig C | -1.02 | 0.00 | +0.25 | -1.16 | -0.15 | +0.04 | 0.00 | — | 20:42 |
| 3 Nick Jensen D | -1.03 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.08 | — | 20:53 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 Lane Hutson D | +2.64 | +0.70 | +0.19 | +1.40 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 22:47 |
| 15 Alex Newhook C | +1.56 | +0.75 | +0.33 | +0.44 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 16:51 |
| 93 Ivan Demidov R | +1.49 | +0.75 | +0.25 | +0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:03 |
| 47 Jayden Struble D | +1.22 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:44 |
| 76 Zachary Bolduc R | +1.05 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.67 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:28 |
| 77 Kirby Dach C | +1.03 | 0.00 | +0.36 | +0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:03 |
| 13 Cole Caufield R | +0.89 | +1.30 | +0.24 | -0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:55 |
| 14 Nick Suzuki C | +0.78 | +1.40 | +0.03 | -0.68 | 0.00 | -0.07 | +0.10 | — | 19:06 |
| 91 Oliver Kapanen C | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.44 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 15:31 |
| 90 Joseph Veleno C | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 | -0.15 | -0.02 | +0.05 | — | 12:00 |
| 11 Brendan Gallagher R | +0.40 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:14 |
| 45 Alexandre Carrier D | +0.35 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.34 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 19:53 |
| 72 Arber Xhekaj D | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 14:32 |
| 71 Jake Evans C | +0.07 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.07 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.05 | — | 12:01 |
| 20 Juraj Slafkovský L | +0.04 | +0.75 | +0.14 | -0.75 | -0.15 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 18:51 |
| 17 Josh Anderson R | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.20 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:41 |
| 8 Mike Matheson D | -0.07 | +0.55 | +0.07 | -0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 | — | 25:02 |
| 35 Samuel Montembeault G | -0.31 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.31 | 61:40 |
| 53 Noah Dobson D | -1.28 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 21:18 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.