Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 5–2 Final Philadelphia FlyersPHI

Saturday, November 1, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	1	2	2	5	27
Philadelphia FlyersPHI	1	0	1	2	33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:09	PHI	Christian Dvorak (3) Nikita Grebenkin (2), Travis Konecny (4) · snap xG 0.18	0–1 ▶
6:16	TOR	Auston Matthews (6) Morgan Rielly (5), Nick Robertson (3) · snap xG 0.07	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
8:14	TOR	Jake McCabe (2) Chris Tanev (2), Matias Maccelli (3) · snap xG 0.02	2–1 ▶
17:34	TOR	Nick Robertson (3) Matthew Knies (11), John Tavares (9) · snap xG 0.08	3–1 ▶
3rd Period
0:33	TOR	Easton Cowan (1) John Tavares (10) · snap xG 0.08	4–1 ▶
16:08	PHI	Tyson Foerster (4)PP Trevor Zegras (9), Matvei Michkov (5) · slap xG 0.13	4–2 ▶
19:42	TOR	Calle Jarnkrok (4)EN Dakota Joshua (2), Simon Benoit (2) · wrist xG 0.57	5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 45%Deserve to win55% PHI

TOR		PHI
3.31	Expected goals	3.05
5	Goals (no shootout)	2
2.21	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.63
50	Shot attempts	72
37	Unblocked attempts	52
27	Shots on goal	33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
0:33	PHI	Goalie	Goalie · Vladar −2.1 goals saved 4 goals on 1.93 xG, 19 shots on goal
0:33	PHI	Goalie change	Goalie change · Kolosov in for Vladar 0:33 of the 3rd; Vladar had allowed 4 goals on 19 shots (1.93 xG)
7:10	TOR	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 61–39% PHI had led since 3:33 of the 1st, by as much as 63%
16:00	PHI	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Kolosov, down 4–1 With 4:00 left; PHI scored at 16:08 of the 3rd (4–2)
17:28	PHI	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Kolosov, down 4–2 With 2:32 left
18:45	PHI	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Kolosov, down 4–2 With 1:15 left; TOR scored at 19:42 of the 3rd (5–2)
19:00	PHI	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.16–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:10 to 19:10 of the 3rd; goals 1–0

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PHI shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	1	0	1	+3	7	0.82	1	0	20:19
89	Matthew Knies	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	2	0	20:04
91	John Tavares	0	2	2	0	5	0.65	2	0	17:01
10	Nicolas Roy	0	0	0	+1	3	0.10	0	1	16:51
14	Nick Robertson	1	1	2	+2	2	0.08	0	2	15:20
81	Dakota Joshua	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	2	3	14:28
63	Matias Maccelli	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	0	0	12:45
53	Easton Cowan	1	0	1	0	7	0.30	1	0	12:39
11	Max Domi	0	0	0	0	4	0.25	0	1	12:14
74	Bobby McMann	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	1	1	11:43
19	Calle Jarnkrok	1	0	1	+1	2	0.71	3	0	11:08
0	Sammy Blais	0	0	0	0	2	0.19	5	1	10:09
Defense
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	+2	4	0.05	0	5	24:00
44	Simon Benoit	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	3	5	21:02
44	Morgan Rielly	0	1	1	+1	3	0.01	0	0	19:57
22	Jake McCabe	1	0	1	+3	3	0.03	0	0	18:25
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	1	16:48
8	Chris Tanev	0	1	1	+2	2	0.01	0	0	14:50

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Anthony Stolarz	33	2	31	.939	3.05	+1.05

Philadelphia Flyers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
22	Christian Dvorak	1	0	1	-1	3	0.27	1	0	20:39
46	Trevor Zegras	0	1	1	-3	14	0.62	0	0	20:25
11	Travis Konecny	0	1	1	-1	5	0.30	3	1	18:40
71	Tyson Foerster	1	0	1	-1	6	0.33	2	1	18:17
74	Owen Tippett	0	0	0	-2	3	0.15	2	1	17:08
27	Noah Cates	0	0	0	-1	6	0.47	0	0	16:27
10	Bobby Brink	0	0	0	-2	5	0.22	0	0	16:05
39	Matvei Michkov	0	1	1	-3	3	0.14	1	0	15:52
21	Garnet Hathaway	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	2	0	11:21
18	Rodrigo Abols	0	0	0	0	6	0.12	0	0	11:08
17	Nikita Grebenkin	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	4	0	10:44
Defense
6	Travis Sanheim	0	0	0	-3	3	0.06	0	2	24:07
8	Cam York	0	0	0	-2	2	0.07	0	2	23:59
9	Jamie Drysdale	0	0	0	-1	3	0.01	0	1	18:08
24	Nick Seeler	0	0	0	-1	3	0.03	0	2	16:58
47	Noah Juulsen	0	0	0	0	3	0.03	1	0	14:16

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Dan Vladar	19	4	15	.789	1.93	-2.07
Aleksei Kolosov	7	0	7	1.000	0.82	+0.82

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
34 Auston Matthews C	+2.56	+0.75	+0.53	+1.26	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	20:19
22 Jake McCabe D	+2.30	+0.75	+0.02	+1.68	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	18:25
89 Nick Robertson L	+2.11	+1.30	+0.05	+0.65	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	15:20
8 Chris Tanev D	+1.72	+0.70	+0.01	+0.86	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:50
44 Morgan Rielly D	+1.69	+0.70	+0.01	+0.98	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:57
91 John Tavares C	+1.62	+1.25	+0.42	-0.10	0.00	+0.05	0.00	—	17:01
53 Easton Cowan R	+1.58	+0.75	+0.20	+0.34	+0.30	-0.01	0.00	—	12:39
23 Matthew Knies L	+1.44	+0.70	0.00	+0.78	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:04
19 Calle Jarnkrok C	+1.23	+0.75	+0.46	+0.19	-0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	11:08
41 Anthony Stolarz G	+1.05	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.05	60:00
25 Brandon Carlo D	+0.79	0.00	+0.03	+0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.25	—	24:00
81 Dakota Joshua C	+0.67	+0.70	0.00	-0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	14:28
63 Matias Maccelli L	+0.66	+0.55	+0.01	+0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:45
79 Sammy Blais L	+0.33	0.00	+0.12	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:09
74 Bobby McMann C	+0.15	0.00	+0.06	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	11:43
11 Max Domi C	+0.11	0.00	+0.16	+0.12	-0.15	-0.01	-0.01	—	12:14
2 Simon Benoit D	+0.04	+0.55	0.00	-0.59	-0.15	0.00	+0.23	—	21:02
55 Nicolas Roy C	+0.03	0.00	+0.06	-0.10	0.00	+0.06	+0.01	—	16:51
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-1.48	0.00	0.00	-1.34	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	16:48

Philadelphia Flyers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
71 Tyson Foerster R	+1.18	+0.75	+0.21	+0.18	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	18:17
35 Aleksei Kolosov G	+0.82	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.82	15:41
46 Trevor Zegras C	+0.70	+0.70	+0.40	-0.27	0.00	-0.10	-0.04	—	20:25
27 Noah Cates L	+0.64	0.00	+0.31	+0.13	+0.15	+0.05	0.00	—	16:27
22 Christian Dvorak C	+0.47	+0.75	+0.17	-0.40	0.00	-0.06	0.00	—	20:39
29 Nikita Grebenkin R	+0.35	+0.70	0.00	-0.33	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:44
5 Egor Zamula D	+0.35	0.00	+0.01	+0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:23
11 Travis Konecny R	+0.07	+0.55	+0.20	-0.35	-0.30	-0.01	-0.01	—	18:40
10 Bobby Brink R	+0.05	0.00	+0.14	-0.17	+0.15	-0.03	-0.04	—	16:05
47 Noah Juulsen D	+0.03	0.00	+0.02	+0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:16
74 Owen Tippett R	-0.02	0.00	+0.10	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	17:08
39 Matvei Michkov R	-0.04	+0.55	+0.09	-0.53	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	15:52
6 Travis Sanheim D	-0.07	0.00	+0.04	-0.36	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	24:07
8 Cam York D	-0.16	0.00	+0.05	-0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	23:59
18 Rodrigo Abols C	-0.24	0.00	+0.08	-0.40	0.00	+0.06	+0.02	—	11:08
78 Jacob Gaucher C	-0.29	0.00	+0.08	-0.48	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	11:09
19 Garnet Hathaway R	-0.31	0.00	+0.07	-0.53	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	11:21
9 Jamie Drysdale D	-0.78	0.00	+0.01	-0.84	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:08
24 Nick Seeler D	-0.94	0.00	+0.02	-1.04	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	16:58
80 Dan Vladar G	-2.07	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.07	40:33

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.