Saturday, November 1, 2025
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
CHI 33%Deserve to win 67% EDM
CHI EDM
2.74 Expected goals 3.78
2 Goals (no shootout) 3
2.12 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.36
57 Shot attempts 64
43 Unblocked attempts 44
29 Shots on goal 30
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
3rd Period
1:00
EDM
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced CHI 1.46–0.29
In xG over 10 minutes, 11:20 of the 2nd to 1:20 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
Shot map
CHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → EDM shoots
Darnell Nurse: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:53)
Andre Burakovsky: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:00)
Andre Burakovsky: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 2:01)
Tyler Bertuzzi: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:19)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 3:52)
Evan Bouchard: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:03)
Mattias Ekholm: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:08)
Jack Roslovic: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 4:15)
Matt Grzelcyk: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:11)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:25)
Connor Bedard: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:36)
Matt Savoie: tip-in, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:52)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:51)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:52)
Teuvo Teravainen: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:00)
Andre Burakovsky: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:09)
Leon Draisaitl: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:32)
Connor Bedard: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:45)
Brett Kulak: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:58)
Brett Kulak: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:20)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:45)
Vasily Podkolzin: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:56)
Vasily Podkolzin: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.32 (P1 10:57)
Ryan Donato: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:08)
Matt Savoie: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:46)
Isaac Howard: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:15)
Alex Vlasic: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:47)
Alex Vlasic: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:03)
Vasily Podkolzin: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:22)
Jake Walman: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:34)
Matt Savoie: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:45)
Curtis Lazar: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:39)
Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:10)
Leon Draisaitl: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 19:54)
Colton Dach: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:21)
Ryan Donato: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:31)
Trent Frederic: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:12)
Louis Crevier: poke, 130 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:15)
Brett Kulak: deflected, 121 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:25)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:09)
Wyatt Kaiser: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:20)
Frank Nazar: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 10:28)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:52)
Sam Rinzel: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:18)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 11:36)
Andrew Mangiapane: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 12:24)
Connor Murphy: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:13)
Mattias Ekholm: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:46)
Isaac Howard: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:25)
Sam Rinzel: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:02)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:25)
Connor McDavid: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:23)
Connor McDavid: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:24)
Connor McDavid: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:59)
Connor McDavid: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:44)
Trent Frederic: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.37 (P2 18:48)
Mattias Ekholm: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:53)
Curtis Lazar: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.35 (P2 19:44)
Teuvo Teravainen: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:10)
Ryan Greene: wrist, 160 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:49)
Ilya Mikheyev: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 1:28)
Isaac Howard: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:43)
Artyom Levshunov: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:18)
Sam Rinzel: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:23)
Vasily Podkolzin: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:18)
Andre Burakovsky: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:33)
Colton Dach: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 9:03)
Jack Roslovic: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:33)
Tyler Bertuzzi: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:39)
Frank Nazar: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 10:57)
Mattias Ekholm: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:30)
Matt Grzelcyk: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:32)
Alex Vlasic: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:28)
Andrew Mangiapane: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 15:37)
Alex Vlasic: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:54)
Evan Bouchard: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:04)
Nick Foligno: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:11)
Connor McDavid: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:16)
Connor McDavid: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (OT 0:45)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 0:56)
Mattias Ekholm: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 2:12)
Evan Bouchard: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.22 (OT 2:42)
Leon Draisaitl: GOAL, snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 0:54)
Tyler Bertuzzi: GOAL, tip-in, 3 ft, xG 0.39 (P2 8:32)
Jack Roslovic: GOAL, tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:17)
Andre Burakovsky: GOAL, snap, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:19)
Evan Bouchard: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 2:43)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Chicago Blackhawks
Edmonton Oilers
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Chicago Blackhawks
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
28 Andre Burakovsky L
+2.62
+1.30
+0.20
+1.16
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
17:28
55 Artyom Levshunov D
+1.67
+0.70
+0.05
+0.74
0.00
0.00
+0.18
—
14:17
98 Connor Bedard C
+1.51
+0.70
+0.31
+0.73
-0.30
0.00
+0.07
—
18:54
20 Ryan Greene C
+1.21
+0.55
0.00
+0.73
0.00
-0.05
-0.02
—
17:33
30 Spencer Knight G
+0.78
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.78
62:43
59 Tyler Bertuzzi L
+0.63
+0.75
+0.31
-0.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:52
91 Frank Nazar C
+0.44
0.00
+0.28
+0.04
0.00
0.00
+0.11
—
21:10
44 Wyatt Kaiser D
+0.28
0.00
+0.03
+0.37
-0.15
0.00
+0.03
—
21:07
34 Colton Dach C
+0.26
0.00
+0.21
+0.03
0.00
-0.03
+0.05
—
10:29
5 Connor Murphy D
+0.13
0.00
+0.02
+0.08
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
12:29
48 Matt Grzelcyk D
+0.02
0.00
+0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
14:54
86 Teuvo Teravainen C
-0.03
0.00
+0.07
-0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.06
—
19:56
17 Nick Foligno L
-0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.15
0.00
+0.05
0.00
—
13:47
72 Alex Vlasic D
-0.25
0.00
+0.07
-0.46
0.00
0.00
+0.14
—
23:14
6 Sam Rinzel D
-0.31
0.00
+0.09
-0.43
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
16:51
46 Louis Crevier D
-0.40
0.00
0.00
-0.50
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
18:52
84 Landon Slaggert L
-0.56
0.00
0.00
-0.59
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
9:11
8 Ryan Donato C
-0.82
0.00
+0.01
-0.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:02
95 Ilya Mikheyev R
-0.91
0.00
+0.11
-1.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
19:13
Edmonton Oilers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
97 Connor McDavid C
+2.71
+1.80
+0.32
+0.43
+0.15
-0.01
+0.02
—
25:04
29 Leon Draisaitl C
+2.39
+1.45
+0.24
+0.50
+0.15
+0.07
-0.02
—
22:22
2 Evan Bouchard D
+2.24
+1.30
+0.22
+0.67
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
24:21
28 Jack Roslovic C
+1.19
+0.75
+0.20
+0.29
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
22:52
14 Mattias Ekholm D
+1.14
0.00
+0.13
+0.90
0.00
0.00
+0.11
—
20:02
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C
+0.95
+0.70
+0.10
+0.02
+0.15
-0.01
0.00
—
19:55
74 Stuart Skinner G
+0.74
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.74
62:42
20 Curtis Lazar C
+0.64
0.00
+0.23
+0.36
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
8:41
92 Vasily Podkolzin R
+0.45
0.00
+0.32
-0.11
+0.15
-0.01
+0.10
—
16:09
88 Andrew Mangiapane L
+0.38
0.00
+0.20
+0.10
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
16:08
22 Matt Savoie C
+0.26
0.00
+0.06
+0.18
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
12:17
27 Brett Kulak D
+0.16
0.00
+0.01
+0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
14:27
10 Trent Frederic C
0.00
0.00
+0.29
-0.30
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
13:41
53 Isaac Howard L
-0.09
0.00
+0.10
-0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
9:52
49 Ty Emberson D
-0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
13:54
19 Adam Henrique C
-0.46
0.00
0.00
-0.47
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
12:38
96 Jake Walman D
-0.51
0.00
+0.01
-0.61
0.00
0.00
+0.09
—
23:22
48 Noah Philp C
-0.60
0.00
0.00
-0.47
-0.15
0.00
+0.02
—
8:55
25 Darnell Nurse D
-0.68
0.00
+0.04
-0.75
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
22:22
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.