Chicago Blackhawks
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 22 | 26 | 9 | 53 | 154 | 185 | -31 | 46.5% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Chicago Blackhawks are effectively on the outside looking in, with just a 1.0% chance of making the playoffs and no path to a division, conference, or Stanley Cup title. At their current pace, they project to finish well short of the Western Conference cutoff, meaning only an extreme late-season surge would change the picture.
Record and Recent Performance
Chicago sits at 22-26-9 through 57 games, good for 53 points and a 46.5% points percentage, which places them 12th in the conference race. Their goal differential of minus-31, driven by 154 goals for and 185 against, reflects a team that has struggled at both ends of the ice. The underlying team strength rating of 42.4%, combined with a 40.0% recent form, suggests their current level of play aligns with a bottom-tier contender rather than a late riser.
The Competition
The gap between Chicago and the playoff picture is substantial, with the current cutline held by Anaheim at 63 points and a projected finish near 95 points. Even teams just outside the cutoff like Los Angeles at 60 points and Nashville at 59 points project to finish well ahead of the Blackhawks. With multiple teams ahead of them carrying playoff probabilities north of 40% and Chicago sitting at 1.0%, it would require not only a dramatic Blackhawks run but also a coordinated collapse from several competitors to gain meaningful ground.
Remaining Schedule
The Blackhawks have 25 games remaining, with a road-heavy split of 15 away and just 10 at home, which is a disadvantage given their subpar home strength of 40.1%. The schedule difficulty is rated as average, with opponent strength at 52.9%, nearly identical to the league average. Based on expected results, Chicago is projected to earn about 25.7 more points, which would bring them to roughly 78.7 points, far below the projected playoff cutoff of 90.6.
Outlook
Realistically, Chicago’s playoff path is all but closed, with the remaining schedule offering little margin for error and the math firmly against them. The focus over the final 25 games is more likely to shift toward player development, evaluating young talent, and setting the foundation for future seasons rather than chasing a highly improbable postseason berth.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 1.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 76–82 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 1.2% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.4% | 40.1% | 42.1% | 40.9% | 40.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | Connor Bedard | C | 44 | 23 | 30 | 53 | -2 | 0 | 16 | 17 | 20:57 | |
| 59 | Tyler Bertuzzi | L | 54 | 25 | 17 | 42 | -17 | 0 | 40 | 16 | 18:25 | |
| 28 | Andre Burakovsky | L | 51 | 10 | 20 | 30 | -22 | 0 | 15 | 25 | 17:04 | |
| 8 | Ryan Donato | C | 57 | 13 | 12 | 25 | -8 | 0 | 64 | 12 | 14:59 | |
| 91 | Frank Nazar | C | 41 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -9 | 0 | 22 | 29 | 18:30 | |
| 95 | Ilya Mikheyev | R | 52 | 11 | 12 | 23 | -1 | 0 | 25 | 17 | 17:40 | |
| 86 | Teuvo Teravainen | C | 50 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -19 | 0 | 17 | 27 | 18:06 | |
| 55 | Artyom Levshunov | D | 52 | 2 | 19 | 21 | -27 | 0 | 62 | 51 | 19:11 | |
| 20 | Ryan Greene | C | 56 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 0 | 32 | 26 | 16:29 | |
| 11 | Oliver Moore | C | 45 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 0 | 23 | 13 | 13:10 | |
| 46 | Louis Crevier | D | 54 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -1 | 0 | 84 | 60 | 16:19 | |
| 72 | Alex Vlasic | D | 56 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -13 | 0 | 21 | 79 | 20:59 | |
| 16 | Jason Dickinson | C | 43 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 0 | 45 | 33 | 15:43 | |
| 44 | Wyatt Kaiser | D | 57 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 0 | 36 | 47 | 19:09 | |
| 5 | Connor Murphy | D | 57 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -5 | 0 | 55 | 84 | 16:29 | |
| 48 | Matt Grzelcyk | D | 57 | 0 | 12 | 12 | -3 | 0 | 25 | 42 | 17:01 | |
| 17 | Nick Foligno | L | 33 | 2 | 8 | 10 | +1 | 0 | 79 | 26 | 12:52 | |
| 34 | Colton Dach | C | 52 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -15 | 0 | 184 | 27 | 11:45 | |
| 76 | Nick Lardis | L | 21 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 0 | 33 | 7 | 12:39 | |
| 84 | Landon Slaggert | L | 30 | 2 | 3 | 5 | +3 | 0 | 44 | 14 | 10:57 | |
| 24 | Sam Lafferty | C | 19 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 8:53 | |
| 6 | Sam Rinzel | D | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 22:52 | |
| 14 | Kevin Korchinski | D | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:58 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | @ CBJ | 4 - 0 | L |
| Feb 02 | vs SJS | 6 - 3 | W |
| Jan 30 | vs CBJ | 2 - 4 | L |
| Jan 29 | @ PIT | 6 - 2 | L |
| Jan 27 | @ MIN | 4 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 25 | vs FLA | 1 - 5 | L |
| Jan 23 | vs TBL | 1 - 2 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 22 | @ CAR | 3 - 4 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 19 | vs WPG | 2 - 0 | W |
| Jan 17 | vs BOS | 2 - 5 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 20:00 | @ Nashville Predators | Away | 45.6% | 1.05 | NSH (54%) |
| Feb 28, 18:00 | @ Colorado Avalanche | Away | 66.8% | 0.89 | COL (63%) |
| Mar 01, 16:00 | @ Utah Mammoth | Away | 59.6% | 0.89 | UTA (64%) |
| Mar 03, 20:00 | @ Winnipeg Jets | Away | 45.7% | 1.04 | WPG (55%) |
| Mar 06, 20:30 | vs Vancouver Canucks | Home | 32.8% | 1.12 | VAN (50%) |
| Mar 08, 18:00 | @ Dallas Stars | Away | 63.9% | 0.94 | DAL (61%) |
| Mar 09, 20:30 | vs Utah Mammoth | Home | 59.6% | 1.03 | UTA (55%) |
| Mar 12, 21:00 | @ Utah Mammoth | Away | 59.6% | 0.89 | UTA (64%) |
| Mar 14, 22:00 | @ Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 52.5% | 1.03 | VGK (56%) |
| Mar 17, 19:30 | vs Minnesota Wild | Home | 65.9% | 0.91 | MIN (62%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 9.8 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.