Chicago Blackhawks
Central Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 0.0% |
|
Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Oct 06, 2026
Likely First-Round Opponents
| Opponent | Probability | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
Utah Mammoth
|
18.3% | |
Dallas Stars
|
16.0% | |
Colorado Avalanche
|
15.6% | |
Minnesota Wild
|
12.2% | |
St. Louis Blues
|
6.9% | |
Calgary Flames
|
5.5% | |
Vegas Golden Knights
|
3.1% | |
Seattle Kraken
|
2.9% | |
Los Angeles Kings
|
2.7% | |
Edmonton Oilers
|
2.3% | |
Nashville Predators
|
1.7% | |
Winnipeg Jets
|
1.6% | |
Anaheim Ducks
|
1.0% | |
San Jose Sharks
|
0.9% |
Probabilities sum to 91.0% (= playoff probability). Remaining 9.0% = miss playoffs.
Analysis
Summary
The Chicago Blackhawks are effectively on the outside looking in, with just a 1.0% chance of making the playoffs and no path to a division, conference, or Stanley Cup title. At their current pace, they project to finish well short of the Western Conference cutoff, meaning only an extreme late-season surge would change the picture.
Record and Recent Performance
Chicago sits at 22-26-9 through 57 games, good for 53 points and a 46.5% points percentage, which places them 12th in the conference race. Their goal differential of minus-31, driven by 154 goals for and 185 against, reflects a team that has struggled at both ends of the ice. The underlying team strength rating of 42.4%, combined with a 40.0% recent form, suggests their current level of play aligns with a bottom-tier contender rather than a late riser.
The Competition
The gap between Chicago and the playoff picture is substantial, with the current cutline held by Anaheim at 63 points and a projected finish near 95 points. Even teams just outside the cutoff like Los Angeles at 60 points and Nashville at 59 points project to finish well ahead of the Blackhawks. With multiple teams ahead of them carrying playoff probabilities north of 40% and Chicago sitting at 1.0%, it would require not only a dramatic Blackhawks run but also a coordinated collapse from several competitors to gain meaningful ground.
Remaining Schedule
The Blackhawks have 25 games remaining, with a road-heavy split of 15 away and just 10 at home, which is a disadvantage given their subpar home strength of 40.1%. The schedule difficulty is rated as average, with opponent strength at 52.9%, nearly identical to the league average. Based on expected results, Chicago is projected to earn about 25.7 more points, which would bring them to roughly 78.7 points, far below the projected playoff cutoff of 90.6.
Outlook
Realistically, Chicago’s playoff path is all but closed, with the remaining schedule offering little margin for error and the math firmly against them. The focus over the final 25 games is more likely to shift toward player development, evaluating young talent, and setting the foundation for future seasons rather than chasing a highly improbable postseason berth.
Bandwagon Options
Your team's playoff hopes are fading — here are some teams worth cheering for:
Carolina Hurricanes
Metropolitan · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 44.0% | 71.3% | 3.5% |
If you want to watch a machine at work, Carolina is it. The Hurricanes roll four lines, pressure the puck relentlessly, and have stars like Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov driving the offense. It’s high-tempo, modern hockey that’s easy to get hooked on.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Atlantic · Eastern| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 59.3% | 60.2% | 1.9% |
Tampa Bay still has that big-game aura, with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point capable of taking over any series. They’ve been through the playoff wars and know how to flip the switch. If you miss watching a team that expects to win every night, this is a comfortable bandwagon.
Anaheim Ducks
Pacific · Western| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 72.1% | 15.5% | 0.1% |
Anaheim is a fun underdog with a mix of young skill and nothing-to-lose energy. They don’t have the gaudy goal differential, but they’ve found ways to win and make games chaotic. If you’d rather ride with an emerging group than a heavyweight, the Ducks are a sneaky good pick.
Edmonton Oilers
Pacific · Western| W | L | OTL | PTS | Diff | Str | Playoff | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +3 | 70.8% | 43.4% | 0.5% |
If it’s pure star power you’re after, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are appointment viewing. Edmonton games feel one rush away from exploding, and that kind of firepower makes every series must-see. They’re flawed enough to be dramatic, but talented enough to go on a run.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has mathematically clinched a playoff spot. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 91.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 100–111 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 93–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 92.3% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 79 | 73.6% | 55.0% | 52.4% | 101.2 | 78.9% | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 79 | 62.7% | 50.0% | 52.5% | 97.3 | 66.1% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 80 | 86.2% | 50.0% | 51.7% | 96.2 | 57.5% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 79 | 73.6% | 50.0% | 52.6% | 97.1 | 65.2% | |
| 8 | 4 | 4 | 78 | 49.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 80.5 | 5.0% | |
| 9 | 4 | 2 | 80 | 72.1% | 45.0% | 51.6% | 85.8 | 15.5% | |
| 10 | 4 | 3 | 79 | 51.0% | 65.0% | 53.2% | 84.8 | 12.7% | |
| 11 | 2 | 3 | 79 | 46.0% | 55.0% | 53.7% | 107.3 | 93.8% | |
| 12 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 47.5% | 60.0% | 53.1% | 91.5 | 34.4% | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 80 | 39.0% | 30.0% | 53.5% | 83.6 | 8.9% | |
| 14 | 1 | 2 | 80 | 27.2% | 30.0% | 53.6% | 95.4 | 56.7% | |
| 15 | 0 | 3 | 79 | 12.0% | 35.0% | 54.9% | 105.6 | 91.0% | |
| 16 | 0 | 3 | 79 | 8.7% | 35.0% | 54.4% | 105.7 | 92.6% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 10.0% | 35.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | Tyler Bertuzzi | L | 82 | 33 | 26 | 59 | -17 | 0 | 58 | 24 | 18:23 | |
| 91 | Frank Nazar | C | 69 | 15 | 26 | 41 | -26 | 0 | 38 | 44 | 18:19 | |
| 86 | Teuvo Teravainen | C | 77 | 14 | 22 | 36 | -30 | 0 | 21 | 44 | 17:38 | |
| 8 | Ryan Donato | C | 85 | 16 | 15 | 31 | -20 | 0 | 80 | 21 | 14:37 | |
| 20 | Ryan Greene | C | 84 | 12 | 18 | 30 | -13 | 0 | 50 | 38 | 16:43 | |
| 55 | Artyom Levshunov | D | 71 | 2 | 22 | 24 | -43 | 0 | 100 | 76 | 19:39 | |
| 72 | Alex Vlasic | D | 84 | 2 | 21 | 23 | -16 | 0 | 30 | 122 | 21:06 | |
| 11 | Oliver Moore | C | 54 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -16 | 0 | 27 | 13 | 12:46 | |
| 44 | Wyatt Kaiser | D | 80 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -19 | 0 | 47 | 75 | 19:40 | |
| 76 | Nick Lardis | L | 43 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -22 | 0 | 57 | 14 | 12:28 | |
| 16 | Anton Frondell | C | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 17:27 | |
| 6 | Sam Rinzel | D | 28 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 0 | 24 | 36 | 19:59 | |
| 26 | Andrew Mangiapane | L | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 11:11 | |
| 14 | Kevin Korchinski | D | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13:10 | |
| 12 | Jordan Greenway ← BUF | L | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14:38 | |
| 88 | Patrick Kane ← DET | R | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 19:58 | |
| 38 | Ethan Del Mastro | D | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -12 | 0 | 15 | 21 | 13:56 | |
| 80 | Roman Kantserov | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 17:30 | |
| 28 | Ian Cole ← UTA | D | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16:03 | |
| 24 | Bowen Byram ← BUF | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24:58 | |
| 22 | Cole Smith ← VGK | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 14:52 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Location | Score | Result | Opp Strength | Playoff Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 03 | Buffalo Sabres | Away | 4 - 3 | L | 43.8% | -1.5% |
| Oct 01 | Utah Mammoth | Away | 6 - 0 | L | 73.6% | -1.5% |
| Sep 29 | Vegas Golden Knights | Away | 5 - 2 | L | 62.7% | -2.0% |
| Sep 26 | St. Louis Blues | Home | 3 - 2 | W | 47.5% | - |
| Sep 24 | St. Louis Blues | Away | 1 - 0 | L | 47.5% | - |
| Sep 21 | Minnesota Wild | Home | 4 - 3 (OT) | W | 86.2% | - |
| Sep 19 | Minnesota Wild | Away | 3 - 2 (OT) | OTL | 86.2% | - |
| Apr 15 | San Jose Sharks | Home | 5 - 2 | W | 51.0% | 0.0% |
| Apr 13 | Buffalo Sabres | Home | 1 - 5 | L | 43.8% | 0.0% |
| Apr 11 | St. Louis Blues | Home | 3 - 5 | L | 47.5% | 0.0% |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Playoff Swing | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 06, 20:00 | vs St. Louis Blues | Home | 47.5% | 1.38 | 3.3% | CHI (64%) |
| Oct 08, 19:30 | @ New York Islanders | Away | 67.2% | 1.16 | 3.1% | CHI (52%) |
| Oct 10, 19:00 | vs Carolina Hurricanes | Home | 44.0% | 1.24 | 3.1% | CHI (57%) |
| Oct 13, 20:00 | vs Pittsburgh Penguins | Home | 71.9% | 1.21 | - | CHI (55%) |
| Oct 15, 20:00 | vs Winnipeg Jets | Home | 60.9% | 1.47 | - | CHI (70%) |
| Oct 17, 19:00 | vs Dallas Stars | Home | 46.0% | 1.12 | - | DAL (50%) |
| Oct 23, 20:00 | vs Montréal Canadiens | Home | 59.5% | 1.29 | - | CHI (59%) |
| Oct 25, 15:00 | vs Florida Panthers | Home | 57.2% | 1.43 | - | CHI (68%) |
| Oct 27, 20:00 | vs Los Angeles Kings | Home | 27.2% | 1.22 | - | CHI (56%) |
| Oct 29, 19:30 | @ Detroit Red Wings | Away | 14.9% | 1.12 | - | CHI (50%) |
| Averages (Next 10 games): | 12.7 pts | 3.2% | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.