Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 2–3 Final New York IslandersNYI

Sunday, November 2, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	0	1	1	2	22
New York IslandersNYI	1	0	2	3	39

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:53	NYI	Matthew Schaefer (4)PP Bo Horvat (6), Kyle Palmieri (5) · snap xG 0.07	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
15:21	CBJ	Miles Wood (4) Adam Fantilli (4), Boone Jenner (5) · tip-in xG 0.10	1–1 ▶
3rd Period
12:10	CBJ	Denton Mateychuk (3) Kirill Marchenko (7), Sean Monahan (5) · backhand xG 0.25	2–1 ▶
18:53	NYI	Matthew Schaefer (5) Unassisted · snap xG 0.03	2–2 ▶
19:22	NYI	Simon Holmstrom (4) Anders Lee (7), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4) · backhand xG 0.44	2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CBJ 32%Deserve to win68% NYI

CBJ		NYI
2.91	Expected goals	4.52
2	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.87	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.70
45	Shot attempts	70
33	Unblocked attempts	53
22	Shots on goal	39

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:10	NYI	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced CBJ 1.25–0.03 In xG over 10 minutes, 0:20 to 10:20 of the 1st; goals 1–0
2nd Period
13:30	CBJ	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced NYI 1.64–0.27 In xG over 10 minutes, 5:30 to 15:30 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
15:05	CBJ	Goalie	Goalie · Merzlikins +2.0 goals saved 1 goal on 3.02 xG, 36 shots on goal
18:39	NYI	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Rittich, down 2–1 With 1:21 left; NYI scored at 18:53 of the 3rd (2–2)
19:22	CBJ	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Merzlikins, down 3–2 With 0:38 left; NYI scored at 19:22 of the 3rd (2–3)

Shot map

CBJ shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYI shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Columbus Blue Jackets

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
3	Charlie Coyle	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	3	19:14
4	Cole Sillinger	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	0	1	18:23
86	Kirill Marchenko	0	1	1	+1	3	0.05	1	1	17:44
23	Sean Monahan	0	1	1	0	1	0.17	0	0	17:18
24	Mathieu Olivier	0	0	0	-1	2	0.19	9	1	17:18
10	Dmitri Voronkov	0	0	0	0	3	0.38	4	0	16:33
19	Adam Fantilli	0	1	1	+1	3	0.00	1	1	16:32
22	Boone Jenner	0	1	1	+1	2	0.22	2	0	15:53
91	Kent Johnson	0	0	0	0	4	0.50	0	0	12:06
18	Miles Wood	1	0	1	+1	2	0.10	1	0	12:01
21	Isac Lundeström	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	0	0	10:45
21	Zachary Aston-Reese	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	3	1	09:08
Defense
8	Zach Werenski	0	0	0	+1	6	0.15	0	1	27:06
9	Ivan Provorov	0	0	0	-1	4	0.17	0	0	24:20
78	Damon Severson	0	0	0	-2	2	0.39	3	1	23:43
15	Dante Fabbro	0	0	0	+1	4	0.05	0	2	16:43
5	Denton Mateychuk	1	0	1	+1	3	0.40	0	1	13:01
2	Jake Christiansen	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	10:40

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Elvis Merzlikins	39	3	36	.923	4.03	+1.03

New York Islanders

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Bo Horvat	0	1	1	0	4	0.61	0	0	20:28
44	Jean-Gabriel Pageau	0	1	1	0	4	0.69	2	0	16:48
21	Kyle Palmieri	0	1	1	+1	3	0.08	0	0	16:47
92	Simon Holmstrom	1	0	1	0	4	0.59	0	1	16:32
13	Mathew Barzal	0	0	0	0	7	0.08	0	0	16:12
72	Anders Lee	0	1	1	+1	7	0.76	1	1	15:56
92	Jonathan Drouin	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	0	0	15:19
51	Emil Heineman	0	0	0	-1	6	0.56	0	1	14:24
64	Calum Ritchie	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	0	0	13:56
32	Kyle MacLean	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	2	1	09:28
53	Casey Cizikas	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	2	0	08:45
11	Anthony Duclair	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	08:30
Defense
28	Alexander Romanov	0	0	0	-1	5	0.10	0	3	21:38
3	Adam Pelech	0	0	0	+1	5	0.13	1	1	21:34
6	Ryan Pulock	0	0	0	+1	4	0.06	1	0	20:42
24	Scott Mayfield	0	0	0	-1	3	0.09	0	1	19:08
77	Tony DeAngelo	0	0	0	-1	6	0.30	1	0	18:43
48	Matthew Schaefer	2	0	2	0	6	0.24	0	0	17:24

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
David Rittich	22	2	20	.909	2.91	+0.91

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
90 Elvis Merzlikins G	+1.03	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.03	59:22
5 Denton Mateychuk D	+0.92	+0.75	+0.26	-0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:01
11 Miles Wood L	+0.68	+0.75	+0.07	-0.28	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	12:01
19 Adam Fantilli C	+0.40	+0.70	0.00	-0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	16:32
86 Kirill Marchenko R	+0.39	+0.70	+0.03	-0.61	+0.30	0.00	-0.03	—	17:44
21 Isac Lundeström C	+0.36	0.00	+0.01	+0.20	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	10:45
91 Kent Johnson C	+0.26	0.00	+0.32	-0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:06
8 Zach Werenski D	+0.26	0.00	+0.10	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	27:06
24 Mathieu Olivier R	+0.12	0.00	+0.12	-0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:18
4 Cole Sillinger C	+0.08	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	18:23
27 Zachary Aston-Reese C	+0.01	0.00	+0.06	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	+0.01	—	9:08
15 Dante Fabbro D	-0.22	0.00	+0.03	-0.35	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:43
38 Boone Jenner C	-0.25	+0.55	+0.15	-0.93	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	15:53
2 Jake Christiansen D	-0.71	0.00	0.00	-0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:40
23 Sean Monahan C	-0.81	+0.55	+0.11	-1.39	0.00	-0.06	-0.02	—	17:18
10 Dmitri Voronkov L	-0.82	0.00	+0.25	-0.87	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	16:33
3 Charlie Coyle C	-1.15	0.00	0.00	-1.23	0.00	-0.07	+0.15	—	19:14
78 Damon Severson D	-1.20	0.00	+0.25	-1.30	-0.15	0.00	-0.01	—	23:43
9 Ivan Provorov D	-1.30	0.00	+0.11	-1.36	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	24:20

New York Islanders

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
10 Simon Holmstrom R	+2.46	+0.75	+0.39	+1.27	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:32
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C	+2.43	+0.55	+0.45	+1.29	0.00	+0.08	+0.06	—	16:48
27 Anders Lee L	+2.30	+0.70	+0.49	+1.09	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	15:56
3 Adam Pelech D	+2.02	0.00	+0.08	+1.89	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:34
48 Matthew Schaefer D	+1.78	+1.50	+0.16	-0.01	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	17:24
14 Bo Horvat C	+1.67	+0.70	+0.39	+0.47	0.00	+0.09	+0.02	—	20:28
6 Ryan Pulock D	+1.15	0.00	+0.04	+1.15	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:42
51 Emil Heineman L	+0.95	0.00	+0.36	+0.54	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:24
33 David Rittich G	+0.91	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.91	59:46
21 Kyle Palmieri C	+0.81	+0.55	+0.05	+0.19	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	16:47
13 Mathew Barzal C	+0.56	0.00	+0.05	+0.66	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:12
24 Scott Mayfield D	+0.48	0.00	+0.06	+0.45	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	19:08
29 Jonathan Drouin L	+0.29	0.00	+0.02	+0.09	+0.15	+0.03	0.00	—	15:19
77 Tony DeAngelo D	+0.26	0.00	+0.19	+0.24	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	18:43
53 Casey Cizikas C	+0.11	0.00	+0.10	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:45
32 Kyle MacLean C	+0.06	0.00	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	9:28
64 Calum Ritchie C	+0.06	0.00	+0.04	+0.10	0.00	-0.04	-0.04	—	13:56
28 Alexander Romanov D	+0.05	0.00	+0.06	+0.01	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	21:38
11 Anthony Duclair L	-0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.09	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	8:30

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.