Florida PanthersFLA 3–7 Final Anaheim DucksANA

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Florida PanthersFLA	1	2	0	3	21
Anaheim DucksANA	2	2	3	7	32

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:09	ANA	Cutter Gauthier (8) Leo Carlsson (12) · snap xG 0.15	0–1 ▶
10:14	FLA	Brad Marchand (7) Jeff Petry (3) · wrist xG 0.16	1–1 ▶
15:17	ANA	Cutter Gauthier (9)PP Troy Terry (9) · slap xG 0.13	1–2 ▶
2nd Period
5:21	FLA	Evan Rodrigues (3) Mackie Samoskevich (7), Gustav Forsling (6) · wrist xG 0.15	2–2 ▶
10:37	FLA	Eetu Luostarinen (2)PP Evan Rodrigues (5), Sam Bennett (2) · wrist xG 0.16	3–2 ▶
15:36	ANA	Cutter Gauthier (10)PP Jackson LaCombe (5), Leo Carlsson (13) · snap xG 0.10	3–3 ▶
17:19	ANA	Nikita Nesterenko (1) Ryan Poehling (4), Alex Killorn (2) · wrist xG 0.36	3–4 ▶
3rd Period
11:43	ANA	Jacob Trouba (3) Cutter Gauthier (6), Mason McTavish (7) · wrist xG 0.48	3–5 ▶
13:21	ANA	Chris Kreider (7) Nikita Nesterenko (5), Troy Terry (10) · deflected xG 0.13	3–6 ▶
14:47	ANA	Jansen Harkins (1) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.16	3–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 30%Deserve to win70% ANA

FLA		ANA
2.54	Expected goals	3.80
3	Goals (no shootout)	7
1.85	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.89
48	Shot attempts	64
39	Unblocked attempts	47
21	Shots on goal	32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
0:40	ANA	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.38–0.12 In xG over 10 minutes, 11:00 of the 2nd to 1:00 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
2:40	ANA	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · ANA takes the lead, 60–40% FLA had led since 10:29 of the 2nd, by as much as 67%
13:21	FLA	Goalie	Goalie · Bobrovsky −2.5 goals saved 6 goals on 3.50 xG, 29 shots on goal
18:30	ANA	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.13–0.11 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:30 to 18:30 of the 3rd; goals 3–0

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ ANA shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
13	Sam Reinhart	0	0	0	-3	2	0.04	3	0	20:50
15	Anton Lundell	0	0	0	-2	1	0.03	1	3	18:47
23	Carter Verhaeghe	0	0	0	-2	5	0.31	2	1	17:58
63	Brad Marchand	1	0	1	-1	5	0.36	0	1	17:45
27	Eetu Luostarinen	1	0	1	-1	3	0.46	4	0	17:02
9	Sam Bennett	0	1	1	0	1	0.05	2	0	16:32
11	Mackie Samoskevich	0	1	1	-1	3	0.07	1	0	14:02
17	Evan Rodrigues	1	1	2	-1	3	0.20	3	0	13:53
79	Cole Schwindt	0	0	0	+1	3	0.22	0	0	11:50
70	Jesper Boqvist	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	1	10:16
18	A.J. Greer	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	4	0	09:52
73	Noah Gregor	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	1	0	08:23
Defense
3	Seth Jones	0	0	0	-1	3	0.08	0	2	21:58
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	0	1	20:50
42	Gustav Forsling	0	1	1	-2	3	0.10	1	1	20:04
77	Niko Mikkola	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	2	17:59
2	Jeff Petry	0	1	1	0	5	0.20	0	2	16:06
73	Donovan Sebrango	0	0	0	0	4	0.09	2	3	15:36

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky	32	7	25	.781	3.80	-3.20

Anaheim Ducks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
19	Troy Terry	0	2	2	0	6	0.35	0	0	19:53
13	Nikita Nesterenko	1	1	2	+2	3	0.46	0	0	16:35
17	Alex Killorn	0	1	1	0	4	0.15	2	0	15:54
25	Ryan Poehling	0	1	1	0	5	0.15	1	1	15:32
22	Chris Kreider	1	0	1	0	4	0.23	1	0	15:13
61	Cutter Gauthier	3	1	4	0	6	0.59	0	0	14:48
83	Mason McTavish	0	1	1	+1	5	0.07	0	0	14:24
91	Leo Carlsson	0	2	2	0	4	0.37	0	0	13:41
45	Beckett Sennecke	0	0	0	+2	3	0.14	0	0	13:04
77	Frank Vatrano	0	0	0	+1	1	0.11	1	0	11:51
49	Ross Johnston	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	0	10:19
10	Jansen Harkins	1	0	1	+1	2	0.18	3	1	10:07
Defense
65	Jacob Trouba	1	0	1	+2	5	0.49	1	1	23:21
2	Jackson LaCombe	0	1	1	0	3	0.02	1	1	23:07
14	Drew Helleson	0	0	0	+1	4	0.05	1	0	19:14
3	Ian Moore	0	0	0	+1	3	0.11	0	2	17:13
8	Olen Zellweger	0	0	0	+2	5	0.31	0	1	17:04
98	Pavel Mintyukov	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	1	16:26

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Lukas Dostal	21	3	18	.857	2.54	-0.46

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
2 Jeff Petry D	+1.25	+0.70	+0.13	+0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:06
79 Cole Schwindt R	+0.80	0.00	+0.14	+0.65	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	11:50
17 Evan Rodrigues C	+0.79	+1.45	+0.13	-1.13	+0.38	-0.02	-0.02	—	13:53
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	+0.62	+0.75	+0.30	-0.19	-0.22	-0.01	0.00	—	17:02
63 Brad Marchand L	+0.62	+0.75	+0.23	-0.25	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	17:45
6 Donovan Sebrango D	+0.50	0.00	+0.06	+0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	15:36
18 Noah Gregor L	+0.46	0.00	+0.11	+0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:23
70 Jesper Boqvist C	+0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.36	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	10:16
9 Sam Bennett C	+0.23	+0.55	+0.03	-0.29	0.00	-0.05	-0.02	—	16:32
10 A.J. Greer L	+0.07	0.00	+0.06	+0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:52
3 Seth Jones D	-0.52	0.00	+0.05	-0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	21:58
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	-0.52	+0.70	+0.05	-1.24	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:02
15 Anton Lundell C	-0.57	0.00	+0.02	-0.50	-0.22	+0.01	+0.13	—	18:47
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	-0.65	0.00	+0.20	-0.70	-0.15	-0.01	+0.01	—	17:58
42 Gustav Forsling D	-0.69	+0.55	+0.06	-1.48	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	20:04
77 Niko Mikkola D	-0.89	0.00	0.00	-0.82	-0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	17:59
5 Aaron Ekblad D	-1.00	0.00	+0.04	-1.09	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:50
13 Sam Reinhart C	-1.50	0.00	+0.03	-1.66	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	20:50
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G	-3.20	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-3.20	58:44

Anaheim Ducks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
61 Cutter Gauthier L	+3.94	+2.95	+0.38	+0.62	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	14:48
51 Olen Zellweger D	+2.57	0.00	+0.20	+2.11	+0.22	0.00	+0.03	—	17:04
13 Nikita Nesterenko C	+2.44	+1.45	+0.30	+0.72	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	16:35
65 Jacob Trouba D	+2.28	+0.75	+0.32	+1.16	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:21
19 Troy Terry R	+1.88	+1.25	+0.23	+0.12	+0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	19:53
91 Leo Carlsson C	+1.49	+1.25	+0.24	+0.33	-0.38	+0.05	0.00	—	13:41
45 Beckett Sennecke R	+1.42	0.00	+0.09	+1.31	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:04
23 Mason McTavish C	+1.41	+0.55	+0.04	+0.80	-0.08	+0.09	0.00	—	14:24
25 Ryan Poehling C	+1.26	+0.70	+0.10	+0.26	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	15:32
20 Chris Kreider L	+1.03	+0.75	+0.15	+0.31	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	15:13
17 Alex Killorn L	+0.82	+0.55	+0.10	+0.31	-0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	15:54
24 Jansen Harkins C	+0.79	+0.75	+0.12	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	10:07
2 Jackson LaCombe D	+0.52	+0.70	+0.01	-0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:07
14 Drew Helleson D	+0.40	0.00	+0.03	+0.39	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:14
74 Ian Moore D	+0.35	0.00	+0.07	+0.36	-0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	17:13
77 Frank Vatrano R	+0.07	0.00	+0.07	-0.15	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	11:51
44 Ross Johnston L	-0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	10:19
98 Pavel Mintyukov D	-0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:26
1 Lukas Dostal G	-0.46	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.46	59:45

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.