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Utah MammothUTA 3–5 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Utah MammothUTA 111 3 24
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 023 5 19

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
18:49 UTA Michael Carcone (3) Lawson Crouse (2) · wrist xG 0.19 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:46 TOR William Nylander (6) Matthew Knies (13), John Tavares (11) · wrist xG 0.16 1–1 ▶
8:56 TOR Auston Matthews (8) Matias Maccelli (4), Jake McCabe (5) · snap xG 0.12 1–2 ▶
16:27 UTA Mikhail Sergachev (3) Dmitri Simashev (1) · slap xG 0.03 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
8:06 TOR John Tavares (7) Bobby McMann (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8) · backhand xG 0.13 2–3 ▶
15:40 TOR Matias Maccelli (3) Dakota Joshua (3), Morgan Rielly (8) · wrist xG 0.13 2–4 ▶
17:01 TOR Matthew Knies (5)EN William Nylander (14), Jake McCabe (6) · wrist xG 0.64 2–5 ▶
18:53 UTA Dylan Guenther (6) Nate Schmidt (3), John Marino (6) · wrist xG 0.12 3–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

UTA 39%Deserve to win61% TOR
UTATOR
1.86Expected goals3.53
3Goals (no shootout)5
1.44Expected goals, 5 on 52.31
46Shot attempts41
36Unblocked attempts33
24Shots on goal19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
16:05 UTA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vanecek, down 4–2
With 3:55 left; TOR scored at 17:01 of the 3rd (2–5)
19:08 UTA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vanecek, down 5–3
With 0:52 left

Shot map

UTA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
John Marino: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:48) Nate Schmidt: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:30) Max Domi: backhand, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:38) William Nylander: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:16) Auston Matthews: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:32) JJ Peterka: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:06) Philippe Myers: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:34) Kevin Stenlund: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:33) Scott Laughton: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:37) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 6:39) Michael Carcone: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:02) Morgan Rielly: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:21) John Tavares: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:01) Brandon Carlo: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:04) Mikhail Sergachev: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:56) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:34) Mikhail Sergachev: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:36) Mikhail Sergachev: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:40) Auston Matthews: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:16) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:04) John Tavares: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:09) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:35) Bobby McMann: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:08) Max Domi: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:38) Dmitri Simashev: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:01) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:15) JJ Peterka: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:52) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:14) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:23) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:30) Ian Cole: wrist, 144 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:46) Michael Carcone: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:56) Jack McBain: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:54) Brandon Carlo: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:36) Kevin Stenlund: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:38) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:38) Logan Cooley: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 10:33) Nick Schmaltz: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:17) Bobby McMann: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:32) Philippe Myers: wrist, 181 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:07) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:52) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:01) Dylan Guenther: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:07) Ian Cole: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:17) John Tavares: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 0:39) Nick Robertson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 2:06) Nick Robertson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:07) Auston Matthews: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 3:03) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:43) Clayton Keller: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:11) Nick Robertson: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:21) John Tavares: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:38) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:57) Olli Maatta: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:06) Dmitri Simashev: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:41) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:18) Bobby McMann: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:48) Jack McBain: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:03) William Nylander: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.50 (P3 16:19) Clayton Keller: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:51) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:54) Michael Carcone: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 18:49) William Nylander: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 4:46) Auston Matthews: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:56) Mikhail Sergachev: GOAL, slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:27) John Tavares: GOAL, backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 8:06) Matias Maccelli: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 15:40) Matthew Knies: GOAL, wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.64 (P3 17:01) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:53)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
8 Nick Schmaltz 000 -2 30.19 0022:14
9 Clayton Keller 000 -2 30.13 0020:34
92 Logan Cooley 000 -2 10.14 3018:52
11 Dylan Guenther 101 -2 50.24 0018:22
27 Barrett Hayton 000 -1 30.32 0015:30
53 Michael Carcone 101 +1 40.27 2013:51
10 JJ Peterka 000 -2 20.02 0013:42
56 Kailer Yamamoto 000 0 00.00 0013:23
67 Lawson Crouse 011 +1 20.07 2113:22
22 Jack McBain 000 +1 20.13 3013:20
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 0 30.09 0013:17
13 Brandon Tanev 000 0 00.00 3011:09
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 101 -1 90.13 0224:26
6 John Marino 011 0 10.01 0020:05
88 Nate Schmidt 011 +2 30.02 1119:34
28 Ian Cole 000 -3 20.00 2217:10
3 Olli Maatta 000 -1 10.05 0012:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Vitek Vanecek 18414 .778 2.39 -1.61

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 101 +1 50.53 0020:44
89 Matthew Knies 112 +1 10.64 1020:10
88 William Nylander 112 +1 30.79 0119:28
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 00.00 0015:11
91 John Tavares 112 +2 60.44 0115:05
81 Dakota Joshua 011 +1 20.00 3013:51
14 Nick Robertson 000 +1 40.19 1013:18
74 Bobby McMann 011 +1 30.25 0012:49
63 Matias Maccelli 112 +1 10.13 0012:07
18 Steven Lorentz 000 -1 20.17 3211:30
21 Scott Laughton 000 -1 10.01 3010:57
11 Max Domi 000 -1 30.10 1010:47
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 022 +2 00.00 0023:42
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 011 +2 00.00 0022:20
44 Morgan Rielly 011 0 40.14 0120:27
25 Brandon Carlo 000 +1 30.14 1220:11
51 Philippe Myers 000 0 30.02 0117:25
36 Dakota Mermis 000 -1 00.00 2013:58
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 24321 .875 1.86 -1.14

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
67 Lawson Crouse L +1.16 +0.70 +0.05 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 13:22
53 Michael Carcone L +1.04 +0.75 +0.17 +0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:51
88 Nate Schmidt D +0.98 +0.70 +0.01 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:34
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +0.88 +0.75 +0.08 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 24:26
11 Dylan Guenther R +0.47 +0.75 +0.16 -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:22
26 Dmitri Simashev D +0.40 +0.70 +0.03 -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:28
6 John Marino D +0.19 +0.55 +0.01 -0.37 +0.15 0.00 -0.14 — 20:05
22 Jack McBain C +0.17 0.00 +0.09 +0.20 -0.15 +0.06 -0.02 — 13:20
27 Barrett Hayton C -0.10 0.00 +0.21 -0.42 +0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:30
8 Nick Schmaltz C -0.24 0.00 +0.13 -0.30 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 22:14
9 Clayton Keller R -0.28 0.00 +0.08 -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:34
56 Kailer Yamamoto R -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.57 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 13:23
82 Kevin Stenlund C -0.45 0.00 +0.06 -0.47 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 13:17
77 JJ Peterka R -0.46 0.00 +0.02 -0.46 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:42
92 Logan Cooley C -0.49 0.00 +0.09 -0.51 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 — 18:52
13 Brandon Tanev L -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:09
2 Olli Maatta D -0.79 0.00 +0.03 -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:22
28 Ian Cole D -0.87 0.00 0.00 -0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:10
41 Vitek Vanecek G -1.61 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.61 58:19

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 John Tavares C +2.82 +1.30 +0.29 +1.32 -0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 15:05
88 William Nylander R +2.27 +1.45 +0.51 +0.29 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 19:28
23 Matthew Knies L +2.23 +1.45 +0.42 +0.21 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 20:10
74 Bobby McMann C +1.75 +0.70 +0.16 +0.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:49
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.74 +1.45 +0.09 +0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:07
34 Auston Matthews C +1.62 +0.75 +0.34 +0.44 0.00 +0.08 0.00 — 20:44
22 Jake McCabe D +1.38 +1.10 0.00 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 23:42
44 Morgan Rielly D +1.22 +0.55 +0.09 +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:27
89 Nick Robertson L +1.03 0.00 +0.12 +0.94 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:18
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.94 +0.55 0.00 +0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:20
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.89 +0.70 0.00 +0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:51
51 Philippe Myers D +0.50 0.00 +0.01 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:25
25 Brandon Carlo D +0.33 0.00 +0.09 +0.37 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 20:11
36 Dakota Mermis D -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:58
55 Nicolas Roy C -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.03 +0.02 — 15:11
18 Steven Lorentz C -0.09 0.00 +0.11 -0.29 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 11:30
11 Max Domi C -0.14 0.00 +0.06 -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 10:47
24 Scott Laughton C -0.68 0.00 +0.01 -0.53 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 10:57
41 Anthony Stolarz G -1.14 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.14 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.