| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 43 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 26 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:56 | Morgan Frost (3) Jonathan Huberdeau (4), Matt Coronato (3) · tip-in xG 0.10 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 1:32 | Blake Coleman (6) Joel Hanley (3), Samuel Honzek (2) · wrist xG 0.04 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 6:57 | Kirill Marchenko (6)SH Boone Jenner (6) · wrist xG 0.12 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 7:47 | Nazem Kadri (4) Joel Farabee (5), Rasmus Andersson (3) · wrist xG 0.16 | 1–3 ▶ | |
| 8:24 | Adam Klapka (2) Yan Kuznetsov (1) · snap xG 0.09 | 1–4 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 19:11 | Mikael Backlund (3)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.51 | 1–5 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| CBJ | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.18 | Expected goals | 2.67 |
| 1 | Goals (no shootout) | 5 |
| 1.87 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.79 |
| 85 | Shot attempts | 45 |
| 61 | Unblocked attempts | 34 |
| 43 | Shots on goal | 26 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:24 | CBJ | Goalie | Goalie · Greaves −2.4 goals saved
4 goals on 1.55 xG, 16 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 8:21 | CBJ | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · CBJ takes the lead, 61–39%
CGY had led since 1:22 of the 1st, by as much as 65% |
| 14:51 | CBJ | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Greaves, down 4–1
With 5:09 left; CGY scored at 19:11 of the 3rd (1–5) |
| 16:52 | CGY | Goalie | Goalie · Wolf +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.01 xG, 40 shots on goal |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 86 | Kirill Marchenko | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 10 | 0.42 | 1 | 0 | 18:48 |
| 19 | Adam Fantilli | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 0.40 | 1 | 0 | 17:55 |
| 22 | Boone Jenner | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 16:46 |
| 4 | Cole Sillinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.44 | 2 | 0 | 16:40 |
| 3 | Charlie Coyle | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 16:24 |
| 10 | Dmitri Voronkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.42 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 |
| 24 | Mathieu Olivier | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.01 | 3 | 0 | 14:46 |
| 91 | Kent Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 1 | 14:39 |
| 18 | Miles Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 |
| 23 | Sean Monahan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.17 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 |
| 21 | Isac Lundeström | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.06 | 1 | 0 | 11:49 |
| 21 | Zachary Aston-Reese | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 2 | 0 | 10:47 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 8 | Zach Werenski | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 14 | 0.20 | 1 | 3 | 27:28 |
| 9 | Ivan Provorov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 10 | 0.25 | 0 | 1 | 23:47 |
| 78 | Damon Severson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.09 | 3 | 0 | 23:16 |
| 15 | Dante Fabbro | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.02 | 1 | 3 | 23:00 |
| 2 | Jake Christiansen | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 11:09 |
| 37 | Dysin Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 07:33 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves | 25 | 4 | 21 | .840 | 2.16 | -1.84 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 91 | Nazem Kadri | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 2 | 20:13 |
| 10 | Jonathan Huberdeau | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 2 | 18:05 |
| 20 | Blake Coleman | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.22 | 3 | 0 | 17:52 |
| 86 | Joel Farabee | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 17:15 |
| 47 | Connor Zary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 2 | 0 | 15:09 |
| 29 | Samuel Honzek | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 | 0.27 | 1 | 1 | 15:09 |
| 11 | Mikael Backlund | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 0 | 14:46 |
| 27 | Matt Coronato | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 1 | 14:32 |
| 17 | Yegor Sharangovich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 |
| 16 | Morgan Frost | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.35 | 1 | 1 | 13:46 |
| 43 | Adam Klapka | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.09 | 4 | 2 | 09:55 |
| 94 | Ryan Lomberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 08:37 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 52 | MacKenzie Weegar | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.03 | 4 | 3 | 24:06 |
| 4 | Rasmus Andersson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0 | 2 | 21:29 |
| 44 | Joel Hanley | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 21:16 |
| 7 | Kevin Bahl | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 3 | 20:34 |
| 94 | Brayden Pachal | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 |
| 37 | Yan Kuznetsov | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 0.22 | 2 | 1 | 13:56 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | 43 | 1 | 42 | .977 | 3.18 | +2.18 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 Kirill Marchenko R | +1.23 | +0.75 | +0.27 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 18:48 |
| 3 Charlie Coyle C | +0.53 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.15 | +0.06 | +0.03 | — | 16:24 |
| 9 Ivan Provorov D | +0.51 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 23:47 |
| 4 Cole Sillinger C | +0.32 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.02 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 16:40 |
| 8 Zach Werenski D | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.13 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 27:28 |
| 38 Boone Jenner C | +0.19 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.51 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.06 | — | 16:46 |
| 10 Dmitri Voronkov L | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.02 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 15:56 |
| 91 Kent Johnson C | +0.07 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 14:39 |
| 23 Sean Monahan C | +0.05 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 13:11 |
| 21 Isac Lundeström C | +0.03 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.03 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 11:49 |
| 15 Dante Fabbro D | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 23:00 |
| 27 Zachary Aston-Reese C | -0.07 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:47 |
| 78 Damon Severson D | -0.18 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 23:16 |
| 24 Mathieu Olivier R | -0.18 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:46 |
| 19 Adam Fantilli C | -0.36 | 0.00 | +0.26 | -0.44 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 17:55 |
| 37 Dysin Mayo D | -0.39 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:33 |
| 2 Jake Christiansen D | -0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 11:09 |
| 11 Miles Wood L | -0.53 | 0.00 | +0.13 | -0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:26 |
| 73 Jet Greaves G | -1.84 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.84 | 55:40 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 Dustin Wolf G | +2.18 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +2.18 | 59:48 |
| 16 Morgan Frost C | +1.72 | +0.75 | +0.23 | +0.58 | +0.15 | -0.04 | +0.05 | — | 13:46 |
| 11 Mikael Backlund C | +1.71 | +0.75 | +0.43 | +0.52 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 14:46 |
| 37 Yan Kuznetsov D | +1.58 | +0.70 | +0.14 | +0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 13:56 |
| 20 Blake Coleman L | +1.34 | +0.75 | +0.14 | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 17:52 |
| 10 Jonathan Huberdeau L | +1.25 | +0.70 | +0.14 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 18:05 |
| 29 Samuel Honzek L | +1.09 | +0.55 | +0.17 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 15:09 |
| 27 Matt Coronato R | +1.01 | +0.55 | +0.09 | +0.36 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.03 | — | 14:32 |
| 4 Rasmus Andersson D | +0.84 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 21:29 |
| 43 Adam Klapka R | +0.82 | +0.75 | +0.06 | -0.08 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.10 | — | 9:55 |
| 86 Joel Farabee L | +0.67 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 17:15 |
| 44 Joel Hanley D | +0.52 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 21:16 |
| 52 MacKenzie Weegar D | +0.51 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 24:06 |
| 91 Nazem Kadri C | +0.45 | +0.75 | +0.17 | -0.54 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.10 | — | 20:13 |
| 7 Kevin Bahl D | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | — | 20:34 |
| 70 Ryan Lomberg L | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:37 |
| 94 Brayden Pachal D | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 15:10 |
| 47 Connor Zary C | -0.16 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:09 |
| 17 Yegor Sharangovich C | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 14:22 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.