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St. Louis BluesSTL 3–0 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Thursday, November 6, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 111 3 17
Buffalo SabresBUF 000 0 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
12:38 STL Mathieu Joseph (2)SH Unassisted · wrist xG 0.30 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
2:42 STL Nick Bjugstad (4) Justin Faulk (5), Mathieu Joseph (3) · wrist xG 0.05 2–0 ▶
3rd Period
18:58 STL Justin Faulk (3)EN Mathieu Joseph (4) · wrist xG 0.51 3–0 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 25%Deserve to win75% BUF
STLBUF
1.97Expected goals2.76
3Goals (no shootout)0
0.85Expected goals, 5 on 52.12
38Shot attempts60
26Unblocked attempts41
17Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
3:13 STL Deserve to win Deserve to win · STL takes the lead, 61–39%
BUF had led since 3:14 of the 1st, by as much as 60%
3rd Period
0:51 BUF Deserve to win Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 66–34%
STL had led since 3:13 of the 2nd, by as much as 62%
2:12 STL Goalie Goalie · Hofer +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.06 xG, 22 shots on goal
2:50 BUF xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.20–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 19:40 of the 2nd to 9:40 of the 3rd; neither team scored
10:10 BUF No shift No shift · Malenstyn, 10:56 on the bench
No shift from 17:26 of the 2nd to 11:06 of the 3rd; 11 shifts (8:23) before that
18:48 BUF Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Luukkonen, down 2–0
With 1:12 left; STL scored at 18:58 of the 3rd (3–0)

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:29) Isak Rosen: backhand, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:04) Justin Faulk: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:14) Rasmus Dahlin: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 2:53) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:02) Josh Dunne: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:14) Alexey Toropchenko: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 4:46) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:17) Cam Fowler: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 8:04) Colton Parayko: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:00) Josh Doan: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:14) Josh Doan: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 12:16) Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:00) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:34) Josh Dunne: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:45) Tage Thompson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:49) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:52) Beck Malenstyn: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:41) Cam Fowler: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:31) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:37) Pius Suter: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:10) Nathan Walker: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:29) Jimmy Snuggerud: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:13) Isak Rosen: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:20) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:25) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:31) Owen Power: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:50) Conor Timmins: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:53) Justin Faulk: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:34) Robert Thomas: backhand, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:44) Jack Quinn: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:00) Brayden Schenn: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:52) Alex Tuch: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:57) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:31) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 124 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:37) Tyson Kozak: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:51) Bowen Byram: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:36) Tage Thompson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:06) Brayden Schenn: deflected, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:37) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:35) Alex Tuch: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:08) Josh Doan: slap, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 0:36) Alex Tuch: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:42) Tage Thompson: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:48) Isak Rosen: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.45 (P3 0:51) Conor Timmins: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:55) Jack Quinn: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 2:12) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 2:19) Jack Quinn: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 2:46) Isak Rosen: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:48) Colton Parayko: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:08) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:38) Alex Tuch: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:05) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:59) Isak Rosen: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:55) Isak Rosen: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:07) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:09) Josh Doan: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 14:22) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:34) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 149 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:49) Peyton Krebs: deflected, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:46) Robert Thomas: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:53) Alex Tuch: bat, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:32) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:41) Mathieu Joseph: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.30 (P1 12:38) Nick Bjugstad: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:42) Justin Faulk: GOAL, wrist, 122 ft, xG 0.51 (P3 18:58)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Dylan Holloway 000 0 10.00 1117:18
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 0 30.02 0017:13
22 Pius Suter 000 0 10.03 1017:08
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 000 0 30.11 0317:00
10 Brayden Schenn 000 0 50.27 1116:43
18 Robert Thomas 000 0 30.12 0015:28
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 +1 10.15 4113:12
85 Alexandre Texier 000 0 00.00 1012:23
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 0 00.00 1112:22
21 Mathieu Joseph 123 +3 10.30 0112:21
26 Nathan Walker 000 +3 10.15 2212:10
72 Nick Bjugstad 101 +1 20.08 0011:27
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 +1 20.00 1427:09
55 Colton Parayko 000 +1 30.02 0325:11
72 Justin Faulk 112 +2 50.54 1124:16
17 Cam Fowler 000 +1 50.20 0024:08
75 Tyler Tucker 000 0 10.01 1109:26
4 Matthew Kessel 000 +1 10.00 1009:05
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 28028 1.000 2.76 +2.76

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Jack Quinn 000 -1 50.25 0120:16
72 Tage Thompson 000 -2 60.08 2020:00
71 Ryan McLeod 000 -1 20.12 0019:04
91 Josh Doan 000 -2 40.55 0018:24
89 Alex Tuch 000 -1 50.30 0016:07
19 Peyton Krebs 000 0 20.06 2114:41
86 Noah Ostlund 000 0 00.00 0213:46
12 Jordan Greenway 000 -1 10.00 1011:25
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 -1 30.07 4110:17
48 Tyson Kozak 000 -1 10.11 4010:10
44 Josh Dunne 000 0 20.08 0008:39
Defense
25 Owen Power 000 0 30.03 0022:58
26 Rasmus Dahlin 000 -3 120.32 1122:43
24 Bowen Byram 000 -1 10.07 1021:03
21 Conor Timmins 000 0 30.05 0217:19
23 Mattias Samuelsson 000 -1 00.00 0216:09
7 Michael Kesselring 000 0 30.07 1115:59
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 16214 .875 1.46 -0.54

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
30 Joel Hofer G +2.76 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.76 60:00
71 Mathieu Joseph R +1.87 +2.00 +0.20 -0.39 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 12:21
72 Justin Faulk D +1.17 +1.45 +0.35 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 24:16
51 Matthew Kessel D +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:05
77 Nick Bjugstad C +0.39 +0.75 +0.05 -0.39 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 11:27
10 Brayden Schenn C +0.27 0.00 +0.17 +0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 16:43
81 Dylan Holloway L +0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.12 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 17:18
75 Tyler Tucker D +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:26
13 Alexey Toropchenko R +0.06 0.00 +0.10 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 13:12
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 12:22
26 Nathan Walker L -0.20 0.00 +0.09 -0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 — 12:10
22 Pius Suter C -0.32 0.00 +0.02 -0.29 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 17:08
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R -0.38 0.00 +0.07 -0.45 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 17:00
18 Robert Thomas C -0.40 0.00 +0.08 -0.54 0.00 +0.06 0.00 — 15:28
6 Philip Broberg D -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.84 +0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 27:09
89 Pavel Buchnevich L -0.52 0.00 +0.01 -0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:13
9 Alexandre Texier L -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.45 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:23
17 Cam Fowler D -0.68 0.00 +0.13 -0.66 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 24:08
55 Colton Parayko D -0.69 0.00 +0.01 -0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 25:11

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Josh Doan R +1.52 0.00 +0.36 +1.02 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:24
21 Conor Timmins D +1.15 0.00 +0.03 +0.87 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 17:19
71 Ryan McLeod C +1.09 0.00 +0.08 +1.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.04 — 19:04
63 Isak Rosen R +0.92 0.00 +0.40 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:10
89 Alex Tuch R +0.82 0.00 +0.19 +0.78 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 16:07
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.80 0.00 +0.04 +0.74 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 14:41
25 Owen Power D +0.77 0.00 +0.02 +0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 22:58
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +0.65 0.00 +0.21 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:43
72 Tage Thompson C +0.50 0.00 +0.05 +0.46 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 20:00
22 Jack Quinn R +0.32 0.00 +0.16 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:16
44 Josh Dunne C +0.31 0.00 +0.05 +0.26 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 8:39
4 Bowen Byram D +0.29 0.00 +0.05 +0.15 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 21:03
8 Michael Kesselring D +0.20 0.00 +0.04 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:59
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:09
29 Beck Malenstyn L -0.05 0.00 +0.04 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:17
86 Noah Ostlund C -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.05 +0.08 — 13:46
48 Tyson Kozak C -0.33 0.00 +0.07 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:10
12 Jordan Greenway L -0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:25
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G -0.69 0.00 — — -0.15 — — -0.54 59:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.