Saturday, November 8, 2025
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
PIT 49%Deserve to win 51% NJD
PIT NJD
2.53 Expected goals 2.58
1 Goals (no shootout) 1
1.99 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.03
69 Shot attempts 50
46 Unblocked attempts 36
34 Shots on goal 24
Shot map
PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → NJD shoots
Timo Meier: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:45)
Ondrej Palat: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:04)
Cody Glass: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 1:15)
Connor Dewar: slap, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 1:35)
Juho Lammikko: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:08)
Jack Hughes: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:54)
Kris Letang: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:36)
Luke Hughes: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:41)
Blake Lizotte: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:18)
Timo Meier: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:42)
Ville Koivunen: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 9:42)
Blake Lizotte: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 10:38)
Cody Glass: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:20)
Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:43)
Erik Karlsson: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:48)
Timo Meier: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:18)
Bryan Rust: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:31)
Bryan Rust: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:32)
Sidney Crosby: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:42)
Ryan Graves: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:33)
Connor Clifton: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:40)
Ryan Graves: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:55)
Sidney Crosby: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:27)
Ville Koivunen: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 17:33)
Luke Glendening: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:41)
Kris Letang: wrist, 166 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:10)
Timo Meier: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:36)
Jack Hughes: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:52)
Bryan Rust: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:03)
Ondrej Palat: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:11)
Cody Glass: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:26)
Luke Hughes: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:54)
Ville Koivunen: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:33)
Anthony Mantha: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:34)
Kris Letang: wrist, 179 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:02)
Ben Kindel: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:10)
Danton Heinen: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:18)
Connor Dewar: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:36)
Parker Wotherspoon: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:55)
Connor Dewar: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:59)
Colton White: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:02)
Stefan Noesen: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 11:37)
Anthony Mantha: bat, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:08)
Erik Karlsson: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:55)
Erik Karlsson: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:19)
Connor Dewar: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 13:58)
Connor Dewar: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:14)
Ryan Shea: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 14:22)
Luke Hughes: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:39)
Cody Glass: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:49)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:11)
Timo Meier: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:17)
Luke Hughes: backhand, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:48)
Jack Hughes: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 1:29)
Simon Nemec: snap, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:34)
Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:33)
Ben Kindel: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:34)
Sidney Crosby: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:46)
Erik Karlsson: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:57)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:42)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:49)
Tommy Novak: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:11)
Connor Clifton: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:20)
Stefan Noesen: wrist, 141 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:17)
Sidney Crosby: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:29)
Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:18)
Ryan Shea: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:19)
Dawson Mercer: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:49)
Timo Meier: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:53)
Ryan Shea: snap, 181 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:55)
Joona Koppanen: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:00)
Timo Meier: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:10)
Dawson Mercer: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:40)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 0:46)
Ben Kindel: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:50)
Ben Kindel: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 2:01)
Sidney Crosby: wrist, 143 ft, xG 0.01 (OT 2:47)
Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (OT 2:58)
Bryan Rust: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 3:08)
Jack Hughes: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 4:58)
Arseny Gritsyuk: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.36 (P1 19:12)
Ryan Graves: GOAL, slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:33)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Pittsburgh Penguins
New Jersey Devils
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Jake Allen
34 1 33
.971
2.53
+1.53
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
37 Arturs Silovs G
+1.58
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+1.58
65:00
27 Ryan Graves D
+1.38
+0.75
+0.07
+0.35
+0.15
0.00
+0.06
—
17:09
19 Connor Dewar C
+1.33
0.00
+0.38
+0.89
0.00
-0.01
+0.07
—
15:34
46 Blake Lizotte C
+1.08
0.00
+0.16
+0.86
0.00
+0.05
0.00
—
15:34
43 Danton Heinen L
+0.89
0.00
+0.04
+0.81
0.00
-0.01
+0.05
—
12:07
17 Bryan Rust R
+0.87
+0.70
+0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
20:13
87 Sidney Crosby C
+0.56
+0.55
+0.09
+0.01
0.00
-0.07
-0.02
—
19:55
28 Parker Wotherspoon D
+0.56
0.00
+0.02
+0.49
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
22:05
41 Ville Koivunen R
+0.35
0.00
+0.19
+0.18
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
12:14
65 Erik Karlsson D
+0.35
0.00
+0.05
+0.43
-0.15
0.00
+0.01
—
24:58
13 Kevin Hayes R
+0.26
0.00
0.00
+0.31
0.00
-0.03
-0.02
—
11:10
75 Connor Clifton D
+0.25
0.00
+0.02
+0.20
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
17:06
81 Ben Kindel C
+0.02
0.00
+0.20
-0.17
0.00
-0.02
+0.01
—
19:53
18 Tommy Novak C
-0.46
0.00
+0.02
-0.56
0.00
+0.01
+0.07
—
15:01
5 Ryan Shea D
-0.54
0.00
+0.15
-0.77
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
20:25
15 Joona Koppanen L
-0.68
0.00
+0.02
-0.72
0.00
+0.02
0.00
—
11:36
58 Kris Letang D
-0.74
0.00
+0.01
-0.78
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
21:55
39 Anthony Mantha R
-0.78
0.00
+0.07
-0.89
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
14:12
71 Evgeni Malkin C
-0.96
0.00
+0.04
-0.84
-0.15
-0.03
+0.02
—
19:53
New Jersey Devils
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R
+1.85
+0.75
+0.30
+0.80
0.00
+0.02
-0.02
—
16:06
34 Jake Allen G
+1.53
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+1.53
65:00
5 Brenden Dillon D
+0.72
0.00
0.00
+0.47
0.00
0.00
+0.25
—
21:38
12 Cody Glass C
+0.70
0.00
+0.26
+0.26
+0.15
+0.04
-0.01
—
13:19
18 Ondrej Palat L
+0.64
0.00
+0.07
+0.39
0.00
0.00
+0.18
—
13:40
86 Jack Hughes C
+0.42
0.00
+0.39
+0.05
0.00
-0.02
0.00
—
22:52
83 Juho Lammikko C
+0.33
0.00
+0.06
+0.11
0.00
+0.01
+0.15
—
11:39
43 Luke Hughes D
+0.26
0.00
+0.06
+0.13
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
29:39
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D
+0.26
0.00
0.00
+0.11
0.00
0.00
+0.15
—
20:26
17 Simon Nemec D
+0.23
0.00
+0.01
+0.19
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
26:37
28 Timo Meier R
+0.11
0.00
+0.31
-0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
20:36
11 Stefan Noesen R
+0.09
0.00
+0.12
+0.12
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
12:04
14 Luke Glendening C
+0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
-0.01
+0.05
—
9:47
63 Jesper Bratt L
+0.02
0.00
0.00
+0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:25
45 Colton White D
-0.22
0.00
+0.02
-0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
9:55
91 Dawson Mercer C
-0.27
0.00
+0.08
-0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
20:18
47 Paul Cotter L
-0.27
0.00
0.00
-0.27
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
13:43
13 Nico Hischier C
-0.45
0.00
0.00
-0.80
+0.15
+0.05
+0.15
—
20:01
44 Dennis Cholowski D
-0.58
0.00
0.00
-0.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
13:15
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.