| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 27 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 3:03 | Kailer Yamamoto (2) Ian Cole (6), Kevin Stenlund (2) · snap xG 0.21 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 14:45 | Oliver Kapanen (6) Ivan Demidov (9), Alexandre Carrier (5) · snap xG 0.14 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 6:02 | Lawson Crouse (3) Michael Carcone (2), Jack McBain (1) · snap xG 0.17 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 6:44 | Cole Caufield (11) Noah Dobson (10) · wrist xG 0.04 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 13:13 | Alex Newhook (6) Oliver Kapanen (4) · snap xG 0.21 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 13:29 | Cole Caufield (12) Juraj Slafkovský (3), Mike Matheson (6) · snap xG 0.05 | 2–4 ▶ | |
| 18:00 | Nick Suzuki (4) Alex Newhook (6) · snap xG 0.16 | 2–5 ▶ | |
| 19:23 | Kirby Dach (5) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.22 | 2–6 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| UTA | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.15 | Expected goals | 2.72 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 6 |
| 2.57 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.50 |
| 56 | Shot attempts | 48 |
| 41 | Unblocked attempts | 35 |
| 27 | Shots on goal | 23 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UTA | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced MTL 1.25–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:20 to 11:20 of the 2nd; goals 1–1 |
| 13:13 | UTA | Goalie | Goalie · Vejmelka −2.0 goals saved
3 goals on 0.96 xG, 8 shots on goal |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 92 | Logan Cooley | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 |
| 10 | JJ Peterka | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.11 | 1 | 0 | 18:56 |
| 8 | Nick Schmaltz | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 |
| 9 | Clayton Keller | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.54 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 |
| 67 | Lawson Crouse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.28 | 1 | 0 | 16:14 |
| 27 | Barrett Hayton | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 2 | 15:52 |
| 11 | Dylan Guenther | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.17 | 1 | 0 | 15:14 |
| 82 | Kevin Stenlund | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 14:10 |
| 22 | Jack McBain | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 3 | 1 | 14:08 |
| 53 | Michael Carcone | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.21 | 3 | 0 | 12:20 |
| 56 | Kailer Yamamoto | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 1 | 11:44 |
| 13 | Brandon Tanev | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 08:09 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 98 | Mikhail Sergachev | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 1 | 23:46 |
| 88 | Nate Schmidt | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 4 | 1 | 23:28 |
| 6 | John Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.04 | 1 | 0 | 22:04 |
| 28 | Ian Cole | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.17 | 3 | 2 | 16:40 |
| 3 | Olli Maatta | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | 23 | 6 | 17 | .739 | 2.72 | -3.28 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | 0.62 | 1 | 1 | 17:18 |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 0.14 | 3 | 0 | 16:55 |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 15:59 |
| 77 | Kirby Dach | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 1 | 15:56 |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovský | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0.31 | 2 | 0 | 15:55 |
| 76 | Zachary Bolduc | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.04 | 3 | 0 | 15:08 |
| 15 | Alex Newhook | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 5 | 0.42 | 2 | 0 | 14:53 |
| 71 | Jake Evans | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 14:44 |
| 7 | Brendan Gallagher | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 14:34 |
| 91 | Oliver Kapanen | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 |
| 90 | Joseph Veleno | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 11:08 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 48 | Lane Hutson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 1 | 23:10 |
| 8 | Mike Matheson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 22:03 |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 20:56 |
| 45 | Alexandre Carrier | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 0.11 | 2 | 2 | 18:30 |
| 3 | Jayden Struble | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.02 | 4 | 1 | 17:38 |
| 72 | Arber Xhekaj | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 | 0.03 | 4 | 1 | 14:00 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault | 27 | 2 | 25 | .926 | 3.15 | +1.15 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 Michael Carcone L | +1.75 | +0.70 | +0.14 | +0.78 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 12:20 |
| 67 Lawson Crouse L | +1.39 | +0.75 | +0.18 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 16:14 |
| 22 Jack McBain C | +1.08 | +0.55 | +0.10 | +0.52 | -0.15 | +0.03 | +0.03 | — | 14:08 |
| 28 Ian Cole D | +1.00 | +0.70 | +0.11 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 16:40 |
| 27 Barrett Hayton C | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.25 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.10 | — | 15:52 |
| 6 John Marino D | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 22:04 |
| 11 Dylan Guenther R | +0.35 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:14 |
| 56 Kailer Yamamoto R | +0.24 | +0.75 | +0.20 | -0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 11:44 |
| 88 Nate Schmidt D | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 23:28 |
| 82 Kevin Stenlund C | +0.09 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -0.51 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.08 | — | 14:10 |
| 26 Dmitri Simashev D | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 18:37 |
| 77 JJ Peterka R | +0.07 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.03 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.04 | — | 18:56 |
| 8 Nick Schmaltz C | -0.01 | 0.00 | +0.25 | -0.27 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:17 |
| 9 Clayton Keller R | -0.42 | 0.00 | +0.35 | -0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:24 |
| 2 Olli Maatta D | -0.50 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 11:59 |
| 92 Logan Cooley C | -0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.78 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 18:58 |
| 13 Brandon Tanev L | -0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:09 |
| 98 Mikhail Sergachev D | -1.08 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 23:46 |
| 70 Karel Vejmelka G | -3.28 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -3.28 | 60:00 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Cole Caufield R | +2.16 | +1.50 | +0.09 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:55 |
| 14 Nick Suzuki C | +2.14 | +0.75 | +0.40 | +0.95 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | — | 17:18 |
| 15 Alex Newhook C | +2.14 | +1.45 | +0.27 | +0.57 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:53 |
| 91 Oliver Kapanen C | +1.80 | +1.45 | +0.16 | +0.20 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:55 |
| 8 Mike Matheson D | +1.74 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 22:03 |
| 20 Juraj Slafkovský L | +1.70 | +0.70 | +0.20 | +0.82 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 15:55 |
| 45 Alexandre Carrier D | +1.55 | +0.55 | +0.07 | +0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 18:30 |
| 77 Kirby Dach C | +1.20 | +0.75 | +0.25 | -0.03 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 15:56 |
| 35 Samuel Montembeault G | +1.15 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.15 | 60:00 |
| 93 Ivan Demidov R | +1.07 | +0.70 | +0.12 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:18 |
| 72 Arber Xhekaj D | +1.06 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 14:00 |
| 53 Noah Dobson D | +1.03 | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 20:56 |
| 76 Zachary Bolduc R | -0.13 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 15:08 |
| 11 Brendan Gallagher R | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:34 |
| 17 Josh Anderson R | -0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 15:59 |
| 90 Joseph Veleno C | -0.40 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.63 | +0.15 | -0.02 | +0.05 | — | 11:08 |
| 71 Jake Evans C | -0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.65 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.03 | — | 14:44 |
| 48 Lane Hutson D | -0.94 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 23:10 |
| 47 Jayden Struble D | -1.05 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 17:38 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.