Buffalo SabresBUF 3–6 Final Carolina HurricanesCAR

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	0	2	3	22
Carolina HurricanesCAR	1	2	3	6	35

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:00	CAR	Sebastian Aho (5) Andrei Svechnikov (2) · snap xG 0.11	0–1 ▶
8:18	BUF	Owen Power (2) Noah Ostlund (1) · snap xG 0.17	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:34	CAR	Andrei Svechnikov (4)PP K'Andre Miller (4), Nikolaj Ehlers (5) · slap xG 0.06	1–2 ▶
11:39	CAR	Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2) Joel Nystrom (1), Taylor Hall (5) · slap xG 0.06	1–3 ▶
3rd Period
0:29	CAR	Eric Robinson (4) Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3), Charles Alexis Legault (1) · snap xG 0.10	1–4 ▶
3:23	BUF	Alex Tuch (6) Tage Thompson (6) · snap xG 0.02	2–4 ▶
6:49	BUF	Tage Thompson (6) Ryan McLeod (5), Alex Tuch (8) · snap xG 0.19	3–4 ▶
17:56	CAR	Seth Jarvis (9)EN Jordan Staal (2) · snap xG 0.78	3–5 ▶
18:32	CAR	Charles Alexis Legault (1)EN Sebastian Aho (10) · snap xG 0.46	3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 57%Deserve to win43% CAR

BUF		CAR
2.93	Expected goals	3.89
3	Goals (no shootout)	6
2.24	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.07
50	Shot attempts	72
35	Unblocked attempts	53
22	Shots on goal	35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
12:03	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 61–39% CAR had led since 11:18 of the 2nd, by as much as 64%
12:40	BUF	No shift	No shift · Dunne, 14:53 on the bench No shift from 2:36 to 18:32 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (8:09) before that
12:40	BUF	No shift	No shift · Malenstyn, 14:53 on the bench No shift from 2:36 to 18:32 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (9:34) before that
14:10	BUF	No shift	No shift · Ostlund, 14:40 on the bench No shift after 4:02 of the 3rd; 14 shifts (8:51) before that
17:16	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Lyon, down 4–3 With 2:44 left; CAR scored at 17:56 of the 3rd (3–5)

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Ryan McLeod	0	1	1	0	3	0.33	0	0	19:23
72	Tage Thompson	1	1	2	0	6	0.68	2	1	18:59
89	Alex Tuch	1	1	2	0	3	0.08	3	1	18:37
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	-2	2	0.05	2	1	17:17
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	-2	3	0.07	1	0	16:23
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	-1	4	0.16	2	0	15:15
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	-2	4	0.35	1	1	15:04
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	0	3	0.44	3	2	14:11
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	10:25
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	2	08:53
86	Noah Ostlund	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	0	08:51
Defense
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	+1	3	0.02	1	3	23:35
25	Owen Power	1	0	1	-1	5	0.19	1	1	22:08
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	-3	4	0.49	0	2	21:30
21	Conor Timmins	0	0	0	0	5	0.04	0	1	20:22
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	-2	3	0.01	1	1	17:29
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	0	13:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Lyon	33	4	29	.879	2.55	-1.45

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
20	Sebastian Aho	1	1	2	+1	9	0.59	0	0	20:01
37	Andrei Svechnikov	1	1	2	+1	6	0.28	3	1	18:11
24	Seth Jarvis	1	0	1	+1	2	0.84	2	0	17:49
11	Jordan Staal	0	1	1	-1	5	0.27	1	0	16:27
71	Taylor Hall	0	1	1	+2	6	0.16	0	1	15:57
48	Jordan Martinook	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	3	0	15:30
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	-2	1	0.06	3	0	13:20
53	Jackson Blake	0	0	0	0	2	0.29	0	0	12:31
50	Eric Robinson	1	0	1	+3	4	0.35	2	1	12:22
22	Logan Stankoven	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	1	1	12:18
82	Jesperi Kotkaniemi	1	1	2	+2	3	0.11	3	0	11:49
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	0	1	1	0	2	0.01	0	0	11:36
Defense
21	Alexander Nikishin	0	0	0	+2	5	0.17	4	1	21:39
26	Sean Walker	0	0	0	-1	6	0.13	1	1	21:09
6	Mike Reilly	0	0	0	+1	3	0.01	0	3	21:05
19	K'Andre Miller	0	1	1	0	3	0.01	0	1	20:31
62	Charles Alexis Legault	1	1	2	+2	5	0.49	2	2	18:21
64	Joel Nystrom	0	1	1	0	7	0.06	0	1	16:23

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Pyotr Kochetkov	22	3	19	.864	2.93	-0.07

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
72 Tage Thompson C	+2.32	+1.45	+0.44	+0.48	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	—	18:59
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.64	+1.30	+0.05	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	18:37
71 Ryan McLeod C	+1.40	+0.70	+0.22	+0.51	0.00	+0.02	-0.04	—	19:23
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+1.12	0.00	+0.01	+0.97	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	23:35
25 Owen Power D	+1.03	+0.75	+0.13	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	22:08
48 Tyson Kozak C	+0.88	0.00	+0.29	+0.47	0.00	+0.02	+0.10	—	14:11
12 Jordan Greenway L	+0.70	0.00	+0.23	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:04
91 Josh Doan R	+0.48	0.00	+0.10	+0.23	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	15:15
21 Conor Timmins D	+0.41	0.00	+0.03	+0.55	-0.15	0.00	-0.01	—	20:22
86 Noah Ostlund C	+0.31	+0.70	0.00	-0.37	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	8:51
78 Jacob Bryson D	+0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.43	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:22
44 Josh Dunne C	+0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	8:53
22 Jack Quinn R	-0.13	0.00	+0.03	-0.19	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	17:17
8 Michael Kesselring D	-0.22	0.00	+0.01	-0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	17:29
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.30	0.00	0.00	-0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:25
19 Peyton Krebs C	-0.36	0.00	+0.05	-0.41	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	16:23
63 Isak Rosen R	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:54
4 Bowen Byram D	-1.11	0.00	+0.32	-1.47	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	21:30
34 Alex Lyon G	-1.45	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.45	58:47

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
20 Sebastian Aho C	+2.38	+1.45	+0.38	+0.37	+0.15	+0.01	+0.02	—	20:01
62 Charles Alexis Legault D	+2.34	+1.30	+0.32	+0.62	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	18:21
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+2.04	+1.45	+0.18	+0.36	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:11
24 Seth Jarvis C	+1.65	+0.75	+0.54	+0.37	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	17:49
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C	+1.51	+1.45	+0.07	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:49
50 Eric Robinson L	+1.20	+0.75	+0.22	+0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:22
71 Taylor Hall L	+0.74	+0.55	+0.11	-0.10	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	15:57
64 Joel Nystrom D	+0.63	+0.70	+0.04	-0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	16:23
21 Alexander Nikishin D	+0.38	0.00	+0.11	+0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	21:39
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	+0.37	+0.55	+0.01	-0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:36
11 Jordan Staal C	+0.33	+0.70	+0.17	-0.58	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	16:27
19 K'Andre Miller D	+0.06	+0.70	+0.01	-0.66	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	20:31
22 Logan Stankoven C	+0.04	0.00	+0.03	+0.03	0.00	-0.04	+0.03	—	12:18
53 Jackson Blake R	-0.01	0.00	+0.19	-0.17	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	12:31
52 Pyotr Kochetkov G	-0.07	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.07	59:01
6 Mike Reilly D	-0.13	0.00	+0.01	-0.08	-0.15	0.00	+0.09	—	21:05
28 William Carrier L	-0.23	0.00	+0.04	-0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:20
26 Sean Walker D	-0.32	0.00	+0.08	-0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	21:09
48 Jordan Martinook L	-0.57	0.00	+0.02	-0.57	0.00	+0.02	-0.04	—	15:30

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.