Colorado AvalancheCOL 9–1 Final Edmonton OilersEDM

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL	2	4	3	9	34
Edmonton OilersEDM	0	1	0	1	24

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
13:29	COL	Cale Makar (5) Devon Toews (4), Nathan MacKinnon (11) · snap xG 0.03	1–0 ▶
14:35	COL	Cale Makar (6) Devon Toews (5), Nathan MacKinnon (12) · snap xG 0.05	2–0 ▶
2nd Period
2:38	COL	Gavin Brindley (2) Sam Malinski (6), Zakhar Bardakov (2) · backhand xG 0.14	3–0 ▶
4:45	COL	Jack Drury (2) Brent Burns (6), Victor Olofsson (8) · tip-in xG 0.07	4–0 ▶
9:34	COL	Parker Kelly (3) Gavin Brindley (2), Zakhar Bardakov (3) · backhand xG 0.10	5–0 ▶
11:30	EDM	Connor McDavid (5)PP Leon Draisaitl (8) · snap xG 0.14	5–1 ▶
14:38	COL	Parker Kelly (4)SH Unassisted · backhand xG 0.18	6–1 ▶
3rd Period
0:24	COL	Nathan MacKinnon (11) Artturi Lehkonen (9), Devon Toews (6) · snap xG 0.17	7–1 ▶
5:02	COL	Nathan MacKinnon (12) Ross Colton (5) · snap xG 0.05	8–1 ▶
14:28	COL	Jack Drury (3) Ross Colton (6), Parker Kelly (3) · snap xG 0.16	9–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 82%Deserve to win18% EDM

COL		EDM
4.66	Expected goals	2.41
9	Goals (no shootout)	1
2.47	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.53
59	Shot attempts	52
43	Unblocked attempts	37
34	Shots on goal	24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
4:45	EDM	Goalie	Goalie · Skinner −2.7 goals saved 4 goals on 1.33 xG, 13 shots on goal
7:53	EDM	Goalie change	Goalie change · Pickard in for Skinner 7:53 of the 2nd; Skinner had allowed 4 goals on 13 shots (1.33 xG)
3rd Period
1:30	COL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced EDM 1.88–0.28 In xG over 10 minutes, 11:50 of the 2nd to 1:50 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
14:28	EDM	Goalie	Goalie · Pickard −2.0 goals saved 5 goals on 2.97 xG, 19 shots on goal

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ EDM shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
43	Valeri Nichushkin	0	0	0	0	4	0.73	2	1	20:54
95	Victor Olofsson	0	1	1	+1	5	0.30	0	0	19:55
88	Martin Necas	0	0	0	+4	3	0.34	0	0	19:55
29	Nathan MacKinnon	2	2	4	+4	8	0.80	1	0	19:46
11	Brock Nelson	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	0	1	16:55
62	Artturi Lehkonen	0	1	1	+3	7	0.61	0	0	16:44
18	Jack Drury	2	0	2	+3	5	0.27	0	0	15:45
92	Gabriel Landeskog	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	0	1	13:20
79	Ross Colton	0	2	2	+2	4	0.35	1	0	12:13
17	Parker Kelly	2	1	3	+4	4	0.50	0	0	10:32
54	Gavin Brindley	1	1	2	+2	3	0.24	0	0	10:15
93	Zakhar Bardakov	0	2	2	+2	2	0.01	1	1	06:36
Defense
8	Cale Makar	2	0	2	+3	7	0.24	0	2	23:30
84	Brent Burns	0	1	1	+2	1	0.04	0	4	20:42
42	Josh Manson	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	2	1	17:33
7	Devon Toews	0	3	3	+3	0	0.00	0	2	17:12
70	Sam Malinski	0	1	1	+4	2	0.01	0	1	16:07

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Scott Wedgewood	24	1	23	.958	2.41	+1.41

Edmonton Oilers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
97	Connor McDavid	1	0	1	-3	8	0.56	0	1	19:10
29	Leon Draisaitl	0	1	1	-3	2	0.06	0	0	18:37
96	Jack Roslovic	0	0	0	-3	5	0.33	0	0	16:29
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	0	0	0	-4	1	0.00	0	0	14:50
15	Noah Philp	0	0	0	-1	3	0.32	2	1	14:48
22	Matt Savoie	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	14:42
92	Vasily Podkolzin	0	0	0	-2	2	0.07	2	0	14:27
19	Adam Henrique	0	0	0	-4	2	0.17	1	2	14:14
26	Andrew Mangiapane	0	0	0	-3	3	0.13	1	1	11:44
53	Isaac Howard	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	0	0	11:31
10	Trent Frederic	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	1	0	10:59
Defense
2	Evan Bouchard	0	0	0	-3	6	0.31	0	0	27:58
14	Mattias Ekholm	0	0	0	-3	6	0.23	0	1	21:57
25	Darnell Nurse	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	4	18:14
27	Brett Kulak	0	0	0	-4	3	0.00	0	1	17:10
96	Jake Walman	0	0	0	-3	5	0.03	2	1	15:05
75	Alec Regula	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	3	13:46

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Stuart Skinner	13	4	9	.692	1.33	-2.67
Calvin Pickard	21	5	16	.762	3.32	-1.68

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
29 Nathan MacKinnon C	+4.13	+2.60	+0.52	+1.10	0.00	-0.03	-0.06	—	19:46
17 Parker Kelly C	+3.50	+2.05	+0.33	+1.00	+0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	10:32
18 Jack Drury C	+2.45	+1.50	+0.18	+0.64	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	15:45
70 Sam Malinski D	+2.30	+0.70	+0.01	+1.56	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:07
7 Devon Toews D	+2.28	+1.95	0.00	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	17:12
54 Gavin Brindley C	+2.27	+1.45	+0.16	+0.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:15
62 Artturi Lehkonen L	+2.13	+0.70	+0.39	+1.06	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:44
8 Cale Makar D	+2.05	+1.50	+0.16	+0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	23:30
93 Zakhar Bardakov C	+1.95	+1.10	+0.01	+0.82	0.00	+0.01	+0.01	—	6:36
20 Ross Colton C	+1.74	+1.40	+0.22	+0.11	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	12:13
15 Jack Ahcan D	+1.53	0.00	0.00	+1.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:59
41 Scott Wedgewood G	+1.41	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.41	60:00
95 Victor Olofsson L	+1.29	+0.55	+0.19	+0.42	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	19:55
84 Brent Burns D	+1.23	+0.70	+0.03	+0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	20:42
88 Martin Necas C	+0.98	0.00	+0.22	+0.95	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	19:55
42 Josh Manson D	+0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:33
92 Gabriel Landeskog L	+0.31	0.00	+0.12	+0.35	-0.15	-0.03	+0.03	—	13:20
13 Valeri Nichushkin R	+0.22	0.00	+0.47	-0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:54
11 Brock Nelson C	-0.09	0.00	+0.02	-0.13	0.00	-0.02	+0.03	—	16:55

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
97 Connor McDavid C	+0.98	+0.75	+0.36	-0.25	0.00	+0.04	+0.07	—	19:10
2 Evan Bouchard D	+0.62	0.00	+0.20	+0.12	+0.30	0.00	0.00	—	27:58
29 Leon Draisaitl C	+0.39	+0.70	+0.04	-0.35	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	18:37
14 Mattias Ekholm D	+0.36	0.00	+0.15	+0.01	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	21:57
48 Noah Philp C	-0.11	0.00	+0.21	-0.39	0.00	+0.04	+0.03	—	14:48
22 Matt Savoie C	-0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:42
53 Isaac Howard L	-0.26	0.00	+0.03	-0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:31
28 Jack Roslovic C	-0.27	0.00	+0.21	-0.35	-0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	16:29
86 David Tomasek R	-0.31	0.00	+0.09	-0.57	+0.15	-0.01	+0.03	—	10:44
75 Alec Regula D	-0.51	0.00	0.00	-0.62	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	13:46
92 Vasily Podkolzin R	-0.76	0.00	+0.04	-0.65	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	14:27
88 Andrew Mangiapane L	-0.81	0.00	+0.08	-0.93	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	11:44
10 Trent Frederic C	-0.88	0.00	+0.01	-0.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:59
19 Adam Henrique C	-0.94	0.00	+0.11	-1.15	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	14:14
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-0.95	0.00	0.00	-0.91	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	14:50
25 Darnell Nurse D	-1.21	0.00	0.00	-1.26	-0.15	0.00	+0.20	—	18:14
27 Brett Kulak D	-1.34	0.00	0.00	-1.39	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:10
96 Jake Walman D	-1.50	0.00	+0.02	-1.12	-0.45	0.00	+0.05	—	15:05
30 Calvin Pickard G	-1.68	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.68	32:07
74 Stuart Skinner G	-2.67	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.67	27:28

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.