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Florida PanthersFLA 1–3 Final San Jose SharksSJS

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 010 1 39
San Jose SharksSJS 111 3 23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
17:25 SJS Macklin Celebrini (10) Will Smith (9), Vincent Desharnais (2) · wrist xG 0.15 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:06 SJS Adam Gaudette (4) Dmitry Orlov (11), Timothy Liljegren (4) · tip-in xG 0.08 0–2 ▶
3:34 FLA Brad Marchand (10) Anton Lundell (7), Eetu Luostarinen (5) · backhand xG 0.16 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:09 SJS Alexander Wennberg (4)EN Collin Graf (4), Will Smith (10) · wrist xG 0.93 1–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 81%Deserve to win19% SJS
FLASJS
3.75Expected goals3.00
1Goals (no shootout)3
1.83Expected goals, 5 on 51.33
78Shot attempts43
58Unblocked attempts31
39Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
17:04 FLA Deserve to win Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 61–39%
SJS had led since 7:48 of the 1st, by as much as 66%
17:10 FLA xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 1.41–0.03
In xG over 10 minutes, 11:30 of the 2nd to 1:30 of the 3rd; neither team scored
3rd Period
10:10 SJS Goalie Goalie · Askarov +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.02 xG, 32 shots on goal
17:17 FLA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Tarasov, down 2–1
With 2:43 left; SJS scored at 19:09 of the 3rd (1–3)

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Niko Mikkola: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:27) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:04) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:20) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:23) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:13) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:01) Ty Dellandrea: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:28) Niko Mikkola: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:52) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 169 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:55) Eetu Luostarinen: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 7:14) Brad Marchand: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:18) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:45) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 11 ft, xG 0.34 (P1 7:48) Tyler Toffoli: deflected, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:25) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:43) Cole Schwindt: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:35) Ryan Reaves: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:47) Alexander Wennberg: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 10:25) Sam Reinhart: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:14) Jeff Skinner: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:50) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:50) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:02) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:10) Gustav Forsling: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:59) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:27) Anton Lundell: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 19:13) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:30) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:50) Sam Bennett: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:30) Brad Marchand: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:30) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:09) Jeff Petry: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:13) Sam Reinhart: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:31) Sam Reinhart: tip-in, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:46) Adam Gaudette: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:03) Ryan Reaves: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 7:05) Ethan Cardwell: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:23) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:34) Sam Bennett: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:23) Anton Lundell: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:49) Gustav Forsling: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:59) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:50) Mackie Samoskevich: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:35) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 14:26) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:23) Sam Reinhart: slap, 16 ft, xG 0.33 (P2 15:33) Brad Marchand: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:35) Eetu Luostarinen: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:04) Eetu Luostarinen: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.35 (P2 17:06) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:54) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:42) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:56) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:00) Brad Marchand: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:08) Brad Marchand: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:25) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:54) Sam Reinhart: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:29) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 159 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:30) Gustav Forsling: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:10) Ty Dellandrea: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:21) Jeff Skinner: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:56) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:49) Jesper Boqvist: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:49) Collin Graf: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:06) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:25) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:48) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 10:10) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:40) Seth Jones: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:11) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:16) Seth Jones: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:22) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:26) Seth Jones: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:55) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:45) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 13:10) Sam Reinhart: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 13:11) Will Smith: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:13) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:17) Will Smith: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:19) Tyler Toffoli: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:03) Sam Bennett: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:25) Sam Bennett: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:30) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:44) Tyler Toffoli: slap, 126 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 17:59) Collin Graf: wrist, 136 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:03) Macklin Celebrini: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 17:25) Adam Gaudette: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:06) Brad Marchand: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 3:34) Alexander Wennberg: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.93 (P3 19:09)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
15 Anton Lundell 011 0 20.13 1121:28
13 Sam Reinhart 000 -1 131.31 0121:07
63 Brad Marchand 101 0 80.39 2020:49
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 -1 50.11 3020:36
27 Eetu Luostarinen 011 0 60.57 4218:52
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 -2 50.26 1018:31
9 Sam Bennett 000 -1 50.12 2015:00
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 0 20.20 0014:41
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 0 40.17 3010:29
79 Cole Schwindt 000 -1 10.05 1009:45
73 Noah Gregor 000 -1 00.00 1109:31
18 A.J. Greer 000 -1 10.00 2008:10
Defense
3 Seth Jones 000 0 70.14 1026:44
77 Niko Mikkola 000 -1 70.08 1319:35
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 -2 40.06 0219:29
42 Gustav Forsling 000 0 60.14 0118:07
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 0 10.01 1012:53
2 Jeff Petry 000 0 10.00 0012:05
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Daniil Tarasov 22220 .909 1.82 -0.18

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
2 Will Smith 022 +2 60.07 0018:37
10 Ty Dellandrea 000 0 30.03 4018:09
51 Collin Graf 011 0 30.16 1218:04
21 Alexander Wennberg 101 0 21.09 1117:49
71 Macklin Celebrini 101 +1 30.56 2116:59
73 Tyler Toffoli 000 +1 60.29 0015:51
96 Philipp Kurashev 000 -1 00.00 1013:46
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 +1 20.01 2112:47
53 Jeff Skinner 000 0 40.21 1012:02
81 Adam Gaudette 101 +1 30.13 1009:48
75 Ryan Reaves 000 +1 20.33 1108:17
Defense
38 Mario Ferraro 000 +1 40.02 1322:44
9 Dmitry Orlov 011 +1 20.00 0121:47
73 Vincent Desharnais 011 +2 00.00 0120:31
3 John Klingberg 000 0 10.00 0320:22
27 Timothy Liljegren 011 0 00.00 1419:18
6 Sam Dickinson 000 0 10.00 0012:41
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov 39138 .974 3.75 +2.75

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +1.60 +0.55 +0.37 +0.46 +0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 18:52
63 Brad Marchand L +1.41 +0.75 +0.25 +0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:49
15 Anton Lundell C +1.37 +0.70 +0.09 +0.39 +0.15 +0.03 +0.01 — 21:28
13 Sam Reinhart C +1.25 0.00 +0.85 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:07
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +0.81 0.00 +0.13 +0.23 +0.45 0.00 0.00 — 14:41
3 Seth Jones D +0.51 0.00 +0.09 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 26:44
77 Niko Mikkola D +0.39 0.00 +0.05 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 19:35
70 Jesper Boqvist C +0.38 0.00 +0.11 +0.26 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:29
42 Gustav Forsling D +0.36 0.00 +0.09 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:07
6 Donovan Sebrango D +0.19 0.00 +0.01 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 12:53
17 Evan Rodrigues C +0.17 0.00 +0.17 -0.01 0.00 -0.03 +0.04 — 18:31
2 Jeff Petry D +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 12:05
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +0.02 0.00 +0.07 -0.07 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 20:36
5 Aaron Ekblad D -0.03 0.00 +0.04 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:29
9 Sam Bennett C -0.08 0.00 +0.08 -0.01 -0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 15:00
40 Daniil Tarasov G -0.18 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.18 58:08
79 Cole Schwindt R -0.30 0.00 +0.03 -0.34 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:45
10 A.J. Greer L -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.32 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 8:10
18 Noah Gregor L -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.29 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 9:31

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
30 Yaroslav Askarov G +2.75 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.75 60:00
2 Will Smith C +1.62 +1.25 +0.05 +0.36 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 18:37
71 Macklin Celebrini C +1.42 +0.75 +0.37 +0.45 -0.15 +0.01 -0.01 — 16:59
5 Vincent Desharnais D +1.41 +0.55 0.00 +0.66 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 20:31
81 Adam Gaudette R +1.28 +0.75 +0.09 +0.48 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 9:48
73 Tyler Toffoli C +0.65 0.00 +0.19 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:51
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.45 +0.75 +0.71 -0.91 -0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 17:49
75 Ryan Reaves R +0.42 0.00 +0.22 +0.30 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 8:17
37 Timothy Liljegren D +0.36 +0.55 0.00 -0.52 +0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 19:18
6 Sam Dickinson D +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:41
23 Barclay Goodrow C +0.28 0.00 +0.01 +0.22 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 12:47
38 Mario Ferraro D +0.21 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:44
51 Collin Graf R 0.00 +0.70 +0.10 -0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 18:04
9 Dmitry Orlov D -0.06 +0.70 0.00 -0.81 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:47
56 Ethan Cardwell R -0.13 0.00 +0.06 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 10:28
53 Jeff Skinner L -0.22 0.00 +0.13 -0.19 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 12:02
3 John Klingberg D -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 20:22
10 Ty Dellandrea C -0.43 0.00 +0.02 -0.41 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 18:09
96 Philipp Kurashev C -0.99 0.00 0.00 -0.83 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 13:46

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.