Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
CAR 89%Deserve to win11% TOR
CAR
TOR
5.46
Expected goals
2.45
5
Goals (no shootout)
4
3.91
Expected goals, 5 on 5
1.13
89
Shot attempts
35
63
Unblocked attempts
25
47
Shots on goal
20
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
1st Period
10:40
CAR
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.44–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 5:10 to 15:10 of the 1st; goals 2–0
19:01
CAR
Goalie
Goalie · Bussi −2.2 goals saved
3 goals on 0.75 xG, 10 shots on goal
2nd Period
8:40
CAR
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.15–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:30 to 10:30 of the 2nd; neither team scored
15:10
CAR
No shift
No shift · Alexis Legault, 28:15 on the bench
No shift after the end of the 1st; 10 shifts (7:15) before that
3rd Period
2:50
TOR
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced CAR 1.31–0.25
In xG over 10 minutes, 12:50 of the 2nd to 2:50 of the 3rd; goals 0–1
9:30
CAR
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 2.08–0.25
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:40 to 12:40 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
19:09
TOR
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Hildeby, down 5–4
With 0:51 left
Shot map
CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.
