Buffalo SabresBUF 2–5 Final Utah MammothUTA

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	1	0	2	19
Utah MammothUTA	0	1	4	5	37

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:33	BUF	Isak Rosen (2) Jack Quinn (5), Bowen Byram (5) · deflected xG 0.18	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
6:42	BUF	Isak Rosen (3) Noah Ostlund (2) · slap xG 0.18	2–0 ▶
10:42	UTA	Nick DeSimone (1) Michael Carcone (3), Nate Schmidt (4) · slap xG 0.03	2–1 ▶
3rd Period
0:52	UTA	JJ Peterka (5) John Marino (7), Mikhail Sergachev (10) · snap xG 0.13	2–2 ▶
3:22	UTA	Lawson Crouse (4) JJ Peterka (7), Jack McBain (2) · snap xG 0.08	2–3 ▶
10:09	UTA	Nick Schmaltz (10) Clayton Keller (10) · snap xG 0.17	2–4 ▶
19:33	UTA	Clayton Keller (7)EN Nick Schmaltz (11), Logan Cooley (6) · snap xG 0.58	2–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 48%Deserve to win52% UTA

BUF		UTA
2.50	Expected goals	3.67
2	Goals (no shootout)	5
2.17	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.34
47	Shot attempts	68
37	Unblocked attempts	51
19	Shots on goal	37

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
7:41	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 61–39% UTA had led since 4:45 of the 1st, by as much as 67%
15:40	UTA	No shift	No shift · Simashev, 17:04 on the bench No shift from 5:40 of the 2nd to 2:44 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (7:27) before that
3rd Period
13:30	BUF	No shift	No shift · Dunne, 14:22 on the bench No shift from 3:22 to 19:33 of the 3rd; 14 shifts (8:15) before that
13:30	BUF	No shift	No shift · Malenstyn, 14:26 on the bench No shift after 3:22 of the 3rd; 17 shifts (9:11) before that
16:40	UTA	No shift	No shift · Simashev, 11:11 on the bench No shift from 6:33 to 19:33 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (8:11) before that
17:20	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Ellis, down 4–2 With 2:40 left

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
72	Tage Thompson	0	0	0	-1	4	0.03	1	0	19:46
89	Alex Tuch	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	1	18:57
22	Jack Quinn	0	1	1	+1	2	0.59	1	0	18:35
86	Noah Ostlund	0	1	1	+1	3	0.22	0	1	16:59
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	-2	5	0.16	3	2	16:18
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	2	0	15:36
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	-1	3	0.16	0	0	15:31
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	7	1	15:22
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	15:19
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	1	09:11
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	-3	4	0.26	1	1	08:19
Defense
24	Bowen Byram	0	1	1	+1	3	0.08	1	2	24:33
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	-2	5	0.14	1	1	22:10
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	22:03
21	Conor Timmins	0	0	0	0	6	0.03	1	2	19:31
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	-2	3	0.43	0	0	13:34
78	Jacob Bryson	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	12:07

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Colten Ellis	36	4	32	.889	2.64	-1.36

Utah Mammoth

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
92	Logan Cooley	0	1	1	+1	7	0.75	1	0	20:48
8	Nick Schmaltz	1	1	2	+1	4	0.24	0	1	20:04
9	Clayton Keller	1	1	2	+1	5	1.11	1	0	18:28
22	Jack McBain	0	1	1	+3	0	0.00	2	1	15:41
67	Lawson Crouse	1	0	1	+3	5	0.42	5	0	14:43
82	Kevin Stenlund	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	1	0	14:19
11	Dylan Guenther	0	0	0	0	8	0.33	1	0	13:53
10	JJ Peterka	1	1	2	+2	6	0.23	0	0	13:43
27	Barrett Hayton	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	0	13:15
53	Michael Carcone	0	1	1	+1	2	0.02	3	0	11:51
56	Kailer Yamamoto	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	11:27
13	Brandon Tanev	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	10:05
Defense
98	Mikhail Sergachev	0	1	1	+2	10	0.09	0	2	26:24
88	Nate Schmidt	0	1	1	+3	3	0.03	1	0	22:47
6	John Marino	0	1	1	+3	5	0.02	0	0	21:53
28	Ian Cole	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	0	4	21:52
57	Nick DeSimone	1	0	1	-1	5	0.16	1	1	16:32

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Karel Vejmelka	19	2	17	.895	2.50	+0.50

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
63 Isak Rosen R	+2.62	+1.50	+0.24	+0.76	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	15:56
86 Noah Ostlund C	+1.89	+0.70	+0.14	+1.06	0.00	-0.09	+0.07	—	16:59
22 Jack Quinn R	+1.68	+0.70	+0.39	+0.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:35
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.83	+0.55	+0.05	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	24:33
91 Josh Doan R	+0.37	0.00	+0.11	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:18
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	22:03
21 Conor Timmins D	+0.15	0.00	+0.02	+0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	19:31
48 Tyson Kozak C	+0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.02	0.00	+0.09	-0.02	—	15:36
72 Tage Thompson C	-0.12	0.00	+0.02	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	19:46
25 Owen Power D	-0.23	0.00	+0.09	-0.27	0.00	0.00	-0.05	—	22:10
89 Alex Tuch R	-0.28	0.00	+0.01	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:57
8 Michael Kesselring D	-0.34	0.00	+0.28	-0.57	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	13:34
12 Jordan Greenway L	-0.42	0.00	+0.10	-0.52	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	15:31
44 Josh Dunne C	-0.57	0.00	+0.17	-0.62	-0.15	-0.03	+0.07	—	8:19
78 Jacob Bryson D	-0.68	0.00	0.00	-0.66	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:07
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.71	0.00	0.00	-0.91	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	9:11
19 Peyton Krebs C	-0.75	0.00	0.00	-0.58	-0.15	-0.05	+0.03	—	15:22
71 Ryan McLeod C	-0.93	0.00	0.00	-0.88	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	15:19
92 Colten Ellis G	-1.36	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.36	57:50

Utah Mammoth

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
9 Clayton Keller R	+2.88	+1.45	+0.72	+0.69	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	18:28
8 Nick Schmaltz C	+2.37	+1.45	+0.16	+0.69	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	20:04
67 Lawson Crouse L	+1.96	+0.75	+0.27	+1.11	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	14:43
22 Jack McBain C	+1.77	+0.55	0.00	+1.11	0.00	+0.08	+0.03	—	15:41
6 John Marino D	+1.75	+0.70	+0.01	+1.01	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	21:53
92 Logan Cooley C	+1.63	+0.55	+0.49	+0.69	0.00	-0.10	0.00	—	20:48
77 JJ Peterka R	+1.59	+1.45	+0.15	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	13:43
88 Nate Schmidt D	+1.54	+0.55	+0.02	+0.97	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	22:47
53 Michael Carcone L	+1.49	+0.70	+0.01	+0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:51
98 Mikhail Sergachev D	+0.98	+0.55	+0.06	+0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	26:24
70 Karel Vejmelka G	+0.50	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.50	60:00
57 Nick DeSimone D	+0.12	+0.75	+0.10	-0.76	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:32
26 Dmitri Simashev D	+0.10	0.00	+0.02	+0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	8:15
11 Dylan Guenther R	-0.04	0.00	+0.21	-0.41	+0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	13:53
27 Barrett Hayton C	-0.18	0.00	+0.08	-0.45	+0.15	+0.06	-0.02	—	13:15
28 Ian Cole D	-0.45	0.00	+0.04	-0.69	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	21:52
56 Kailer Yamamoto R	-0.90	0.00	0.00	-0.90	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:27
13 Brandon Tanev L	-0.91	0.00	0.00	-0.89	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:05
82 Kevin Stenlund C	-0.98	0.00	+0.05	-0.94	-0.15	+0.06	0.00	—	14:19

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.