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Buffalo SabresBUF 3–6 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Thursday, November 13, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF 210 3 21
Colorado AvalancheCOL 312 6 34

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:52 COL Martin Necas (11) Cale Makar (18), Devon Toews (7) · wrist xG 0.15 0–1 ▶
6:10 COL Artturi Lehkonen (8) Sam Malinski (8), Martin Necas (11) · snap xG 0.20 0–2 ▶
7:47 BUF Bowen Byram (2) Tage Thompson (7), Alex Tuch (9) · snap xG 0.47 1–2 ▶
9:46 COL Brock Nelson (4) Ross Colton (7), Gavin Brindley (3) · snap xG 0.20 1–3 ▶
13:28 BUF Jordan Greenway (1) Owen Power (5), Josh Doan (6) · slap xG 0.21 2–3 ▶
2nd Period
14:56 BUF Tage Thompson (7)PP Isak Rosen (2), Peyton Krebs (4) · slap xG 0.10 3–3 ▶
16:22 COL Gavin Brindley (4) Josh Manson (2), Brent Burns (8) · wrist xG 0.02 3–4 ▶
3rd Period
16:53 COL Martin Necas (12) Nathan MacKinnon (19), Samuel Girard (1) · snap xG 0.19 3–5 ▶
18:11 COL Gabriel Landeskog (2)EN Martin Necas (12) · snap xG 0.89 3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 41%Deserve to win59% COL
BUFCOL
2.94Expected goals4.66
3Goals (no shootout)6
1.95Expected goals, 5 on 52.63
55Shot attempts72
39Unblocked attempts58
21Shots on goal34

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
6:10 BUF Goalie change Goalie change · Luukkonen in for Lyon
6:10 of the 1st; Lyon had allowed 2 goals on 3 shots (0.47 xG)
3rd Period
17:26 BUF Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Luukkonen, down 5–3
With 2:34 left; COL scored at 18:11 of the 3rd (3–6)

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Sam Malinski: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:40) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:53) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 2:00) Zakhar Bardakov: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:05) Jack Quinn: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:30) Artturi Lehkonen: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:39) Sam Malinski: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:08) Ross Colton: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 6:27) Alex Tuch: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:41) Samuel Girard: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:08) Alex Tuch: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:44) Owen Power: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:08) Jack Quinn: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:09) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:37) Taylor Makar: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:50) Isak Rosen: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:27) Ryan McLeod: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 12:37) Tyson Kozak: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:35) Peyton Krebs: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:10) Devon Toews: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:27) Samuel Girard: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:36) Martin Necas: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:11) Martin Necas: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:18) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:04) Isak Rosen: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:55) Jack Quinn: between-legs, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 0:58) Isak Rosen: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:59) Nathan MacKinnon: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:31) Cale Makar: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:10) Brent Burns: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:16) Jack Drury: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:17) Josh Manson: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:55) Josh Manson: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:19) Taylor Makar: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:39) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:02) Ryan McLeod: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:48) Tage Thompson: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:45) Tage Thompson: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:48) Tage Thompson: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:57) Noah Ostlund: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:03) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:05) Cale Makar: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:27) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:45) Nathan MacKinnon: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:56) Cale Makar: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:06) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 10:13) Ross Colton: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:51) Isak Rosen: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 11:36) Josh Doan: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:23) Noah Ostlund: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:54) Bowen Byram: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:35) Sam Malinski: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:26) Ross Colton: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:29) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 16:59) Tage Thompson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:22) Brock Nelson: bat, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:58) Taylor Makar: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:25) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:53) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:58) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 3:24) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 3:57) Victor Olofsson: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:03) Cale Makar: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:55) Devon Toews: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:00) Noah Ostlund: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:22) Samuel Girard: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 6:32) Tyson Kozak: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:07) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:14) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:28) Brent Burns: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:32) Taylor Makar: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:02) Bowen Byram: snap, 130 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:27) Alex Tuch: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:43) Tage Thompson: bat, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:57) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:09) Mattias Samuelsson: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:48) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:07) Bowen Byram: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:29) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 13:06) Samuel Girard: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:25) Josh Manson: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:13) Tage Thompson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:42) Alex Tuch: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:07) Conor Timmins: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:28) Cale Makar: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:19) Isak Rosen: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:05) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 18:05) Zakhar Bardakov: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:00) Martin Necas: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 0:52) Artturi Lehkonen: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 6:10) Bowen Byram: GOAL, snap, 5 ft, xG 0.47 (P1 7:47) Brock Nelson: GOAL, snap, 16 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 9:46) Jordan Greenway: GOAL, slap, 20 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 13:28) Tage Thompson: GOAL, slap, 38 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:56) Gavin Brindley: GOAL, wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:22) Martin Necas: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 16:53) Gabriel Landeskog: GOAL, snap, 16 ft, xG 0.89 (P3 18:11)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
72 Tage Thompson 112 -1 80.63 0118:37
86 Noah Ostlund 000 -2 30.20 0018:18
22 Jack Quinn 000 0 40.18 0017:15
12 Jordan Greenway 101 -2 30.21 0116:07
71 Ryan McLeod 000 -1 60.23 0115:40
89 Alex Tuch 011 0 40.16 0015:28
48 Tyson Kozak 000 -1 20.05 1114:22
91 Josh Doan 011 -1 10.07 1014:06
19 Peyton Krebs 011 -2 10.01 4113:21
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 -1 20.14 4111:54
44 Josh Dunne 000 -1 10.00 1111:13
Defense
24 Bowen Byram 101 0 40.53 1124:21
23 Mattias Samuelsson 000 -3 20.11 2223:13
21 Conor Timmins 000 -1 20.01 0121:09
25 Owen Power 011 -2 10.11 0020:12
7 Michael Kesselring 000 0 40.00 0013:48
78 Jacob Bryson 000 -1 10.00 0010:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Lyon 321 .333 0.47 -1.53
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 30327 .900 3.01 +0.01

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
62 Artturi Lehkonen 101 +3 60.66 0122:28
88 Martin Necas 224 +4 50.45 2121:37
29 Nathan MacKinnon 011 +3 100.60 3121:04
11 Brock Nelson 101 +2 30.24 0117:10
18 Jack Drury 000 -1 10.03 0014:28
95 Victor Olofsson 000 -1 20.14 0113:34
54 Gavin Brindley 112 +1 20.04 2013:02
79 Ross Colton 011 +1 40.20 2012:44
92 Gabriel Landeskog 101 0 51.47 1012:32
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 00.00 3212:10
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 20.08 0008:52
16 Taylor Makar 000 0 40.16 3007:11
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 +2 110.19 0125:32
7 Devon Toews 011 +2 30.08 3122:07
84 Brent Burns 011 +1 20.06 0018:03
42 Josh Manson 011 +1 30.09 3117:54
49 Samuel Girard 011 +1 50.14 0116:54
70 Sam Malinski 011 +1 40.05 0215:32
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood 21318 .857 2.94 -0.06

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
72 Tage Thompson C +2.08 +1.45 +0.41 +0.16 0.00 +0.05 +0.01 — 18:37
4 Bowen Byram D +1.05 +0.75 +0.34 -0.35 +0.30 0.00 +0.01 — 24:21
89 Alex Tuch R +0.87 +0.55 +0.11 +0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:28
71 Ryan McLeod C +0.53 0.00 +0.15 +0.35 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 15:40
12 Jordan Greenway L +0.43 +0.75 +0.14 -0.50 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:07
25 Owen Power D +0.36 +0.70 +0.07 -0.32 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 20:12
91 Josh Doan R +0.33 +0.55 +0.05 -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:06
63 Isak Rosen R +0.27 +0.70 +0.19 -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:33
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G +0.01 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.01 52:55
19 Peyton Krebs C 0.00 +0.55 +0.01 -0.60 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 13:21
22 Jack Quinn R -0.04 0.00 +0.11 -0.11 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 17:15
23 Mattias Samuelsson D -0.18 0.00 +0.07 -0.48 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 23:13
29 Beck Malenstyn L -0.35 0.00 +0.09 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:54
8 Michael Kesselring D -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:48
78 Jacob Bryson D -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:18
21 Conor Timmins D -0.49 0.00 +0.01 -0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:09
48 Tyson Kozak C -0.53 0.00 +0.03 -0.43 -0.15 -0.03 +0.05 — 14:22
44 Josh Dunne C -0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:13
86 Noah Ostlund C -0.65 0.00 +0.13 -0.64 0.00 -0.10 -0.04 — 18:18
34 Alex Lyon G -1.53 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.53 6:10

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
88 Martin Necas C +4.26 +2.75 +0.29 +1.02 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 21:37
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +2.20 +0.75 +0.43 +0.99 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:28
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +2.10 +0.70 +0.39 +1.13 -0.15 -0.02 +0.05 — 21:04
7 Devon Toews D +1.68 +0.55 +0.05 +1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:07
54 Gavin Brindley C +1.63 +1.30 +0.02 +0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:02
8 Cale Makar D +1.60 +0.70 +0.13 +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 25:32
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +1.43 +0.75 +0.95 -0.13 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 12:32
11 Brock Nelson C +1.27 +0.75 +0.16 +0.27 0.00 +0.07 +0.03 — 17:10
20 Ross Colton C +1.20 +0.70 +0.13 +0.22 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 12:44
42 Josh Manson D +1.01 +0.70 +0.06 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:54
49 Samuel Girard D +0.92 +0.55 +0.09 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:54
70 Sam Malinski D +0.88 +0.70 +0.03 +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:32
84 Brent Burns D +0.72 +0.55 +0.04 +0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:03
16 Taylor Makar L +0.21 0.00 +0.10 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:11
93 Zakhar Bardakov C +0.08 0.00 +0.05 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:52
17 Parker Kelly C +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.13 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 12:10
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G -0.06 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.06 60:00
18 Jack Drury C -0.16 0.00 +0.02 -0.19 0.00 +0.05 -0.04 — 14:28
95 Victor Olofsson L -0.20 0.00 +0.09 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:34

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.