Buffalo SabresBUF 5–4 Final/OT Detroit Red WingsDET

Saturday, November 15, 2025

Final/OT	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	1	2	1	5	27
Detroit Red WingsDET	1	3	0	0	4	28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
10:23	DET	Patrick Kane (3) Ben Chiarot (3) · snap xG 0.20	0–1 ▶
10:52	BUF	Alex Tuch (7) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.40	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:52	DET	Alex DeBrincat (7) Lucas Raymond (12) · wrist xG 0.06	1–2 ▶
5:56	DET	Dylan Larkin (11) Lucas Raymond (13), Moritz Seider (7) · wrist xG 0.19	1–3 ▶
8:50	DET	Alex DeBrincat (8)PP Lucas Raymond (14), Moritz Seider (8) · snap xG 0.17	1–4 ▶
17:58	BUF	Josh Doan (5) Rasmus Dahlin (9), Bowen Byram (6) · tip-in xG 0.09	2–4 ▶
3rd Period
4:25	BUF	Tage Thompson (8) Josh Doan (7), Colten Ellis (1) · wrist xG 0.18	3–4 ▶
9:28	BUF	Ryan McLeod (4)SH Unassisted · wrist xG 0.23	4–4 ▶
Overtime
1:05	BUF	Mattias Samuelsson (3) Tage Thompson (8), Rasmus Dahlin (10) · snap xG 0.20	5–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 54%Deserve to win46% DET

BUF		DET
3.28	Expected goals	3.01
5	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.30	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.63
54	Shot attempts	58
37	Unblocked attempts	42
27	Shots on goal	28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:20	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 61–39% DET had led since 1:12 of the 1st, by as much as 67%
2nd Period
8:50	BUF	Goalie	Goalie · Ellis −2.4 goals saved 4 goals on 1.57 xG, 13 shots on goal
11:19	DET	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · DET takes the lead, 60–40% BUF had led since 19:20 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
3rd Period
7:20	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced DET 1.29–0.01 In xG over 10 minutes, 17:40 of the 2nd to 7:40 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
15:20	BUF	No shift	No shift · Dunne, 12:42 on the bench No shift after 14:32 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (8:14) before that
19:40	BUF	No shift	No shift · Kesselring, 10:26 on the bench No shift after 0:56 of the 3rd; 15 shifts (10:59) before that

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Ryan McLeod	1	0	1	+1	2	0.25	0	0	19:20
89	Alex Tuch	1	0	1	+1	5	0.48	1	1	18:20
72	Tage Thompson	1	1	2	+2	9	0.73	1	0	18:07
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	0	5	0.35	0	1	16:42
91	Josh Doan	1	1	2	+2	4	0.48	2	0	16:10
86	Noah Ostlund	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	1	15:14
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	2	0	13:22
12	Jordan Greenway	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	1	1	13:01
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	12:58
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	5	0	11:28
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	08:14
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	2	2	+1	6	0.17	1	1	27:05
23	Mattias Samuelsson	1	0	1	+2	1	0.20	1	5	22:31
24	Bowen Byram	0	1	1	-1	5	0.19	1	0	20:28
21	Conor Timmins	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	2	18:51
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	+1	3	0.00	0	1	17:35
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	1	0	10:59

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Colten Ellis	28	4	24	.857	3.01	-0.99

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Dylan Larkin	1	0	1	-1	5	0.48	0	1	21:53
93	Alex DeBrincat	2	0	2	-3	7	0.65	2	1	18:04
88	Patrick Kane	1	0	1	0	6	0.38	0	0	17:06
23	Lucas Raymond	0	3	3	-1	6	0.14	0	1	16:47
92	Marco Kasper	0	0	0	-1	3	0.05	3	0	15:47
37	J.T. Compher	0	0	0	+1	3	0.45	2	1	15:44
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	-1	3	0.04	0	0	15:27
58	Emmitt Finnie	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	0	14:26
18	Andrew Copp	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	2	12:20
27	Michael Rasmussen	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	1	0	11:25
29	Jonatan Berggren	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	2	1	09:25
Defense
53	Moritz Seider	0	2	2	-1	7	0.16	0	2	24:39
8	Ben Chiarot	0	1	1	+1	2	0.00	4	4	23:59
44	Axel Sandin-Pellikka	0	0	0	-1	3	0.03	0	0	22:59
77	Simon Edvinsson	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	16:05
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	1	0	13:56
20	Albert Johansson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.03	1	1	13:36

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
John Gibson	27	5	22	.815	3.28	-1.72

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
72 Tage Thompson C	+3.53	+1.45	+0.48	+1.48	+0.15	-0.03	0.00	—	18:07
91 Josh Doan R	+2.98	+1.45	+0.31	+1.03	+0.15	0.00	+0.04	—	16:10
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.95	+0.75	+0.31	+0.71	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	18:20
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.83	+1.25	+0.11	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	27:05
71 Ryan McLeod C	+1.60	+0.75	+0.16	+0.60	+0.15	-0.04	-0.02	—	19:20
22 Jack Quinn R	+1.42	0.00	+0.23	+1.12	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	16:42
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+1.37	+0.75	+0.13	+0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.25	—	22:31
8 Michael Kesselring D	+1.36	0.00	+0.02	+1.36	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:59
25 Owen Power D	+0.99	0.00	0.00	+0.98	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	17:35
63 Isak Rosen R	+0.32	0.00	+0.15	+0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	14:32
86 Noah Ostlund C	+0.22	0.00	+0.05	+0.32	-0.15	-0.03	+0.03	—	15:14
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.18	+0.55	+0.12	-0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:28
48 Tyson Kozak C	-0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.20	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	12:58
12 Jordan Greenway L	-0.28	0.00	+0.01	-0.21	-0.15	+0.02	+0.05	—	13:01
92 Colten Ellis G	-0.44	+0.55	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.99	61:02
21 Conor Timmins D	-0.64	0.00	0.00	-0.72	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	18:51
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.66	0.00	0.00	-0.64	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:28
44 Josh Dunne C	-0.75	0.00	0.00	-0.57	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	8:14
19 Peyton Krebs C	-1.26	0.00	+0.04	-1.05	-0.15	-0.08	-0.02	—	13:22

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
23 Lucas Raymond L	+1.44	+2.10	+0.09	-0.80	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:47
88 Patrick Kane R	+1.28	+0.75	+0.25	+0.47	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	17:06
93 Alex DeBrincat R	+1.25	+1.50	+0.42	-0.70	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:04
37 J.T. Compher L	+0.94	0.00	+0.29	+0.46	+0.15	+0.03	+0.01	—	15:44
8 Ben Chiarot D	+0.83	+0.70	0.00	-0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	23:59
53 Moritz Seider D	+0.71	+1.10	+0.11	-0.59	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	24:39
71 Dylan Larkin C	+0.54	+0.75	+0.31	-0.67	0.00	+0.10	+0.05	—	21:53
20 Albert Johansson D	+0.41	0.00	+0.02	+0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:36
27 Michael Rasmussen C	+0.38	0.00	+0.11	+0.25	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	11:25
58 Emmitt Finnie C	+0.26	0.00	+0.02	+0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:26
18 Andrew Copp C	+0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.04	0.00	+0.05	+0.10	—	12:20
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	+0.01	0.00	+0.09	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:56
48 Jonatan Berggren R	-0.04	0.00	+0.04	+0.02	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	9:25
29 Nate Danielson C	-0.08	0.00	+0.13	-0.36	+0.15	-0.02	+0.02	—	12:12
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	-0.45	+0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	22:59
92 Marco Kasper C	-0.55	0.00	+0.03	-0.61	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	15:47
22 Mason Appleton C	-0.90	0.00	+0.03	-0.90	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:27
77 Simon Edvinsson D	-1.22	0.00	0.00	-0.90	-0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	16:05
36 John Gibson G	-1.72	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.72	60:30

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.