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Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 4–1 Final St. Louis BluesSTL

Saturday, November 15, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 211 4 34
St. Louis BluesSTL 001 1 23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
12:52 VGK Brandon Saad (1) Reilly Smith (2), Brett Howden (2) · wrist xG 0.21 1–0 ▶
14:58 VGK Braeden Bowman (1)PP Pavel Dorofeyev (2), Jack Eichel (16) · tip-in xG 0.12 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
0:36 VGK Noah Hanifin (1) Zach Whitecloud (2), Reilly Smith (3) · slap xG 0.03 3–0 ▶
3rd Period
11:20 VGK Tomas Hertl (8) Pavel Dorofeyev (3) · wrist xG 0.15 4–0 ▶
15:57 STL Philip Broberg (2) Robert Thomas (9), Jimmy Snuggerud (6) · wrist xG 0.03 4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 79%Deserve to win21% STL
VGKSTL
3.09Expected goals1.40
4Goals (no shootout)1
2.31Expected goals, 5 on 51.05
72Shot attempts48
55Unblocked attempts34
34Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
16:40 VGK xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.22–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:20 to 19:20 of the 1st; goals 2–0
3rd Period
12:10 VGK No shift No shift · Lauzon, 17:51 on the bench
No shift after 12:17 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (8:02) before that

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ STL shoots
Noah Hanifin: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:27) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:31) Robert Thomas: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:42) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 152 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:26) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:41) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:10) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:27) Philip Broberg: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:30) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:49) Shea Theodore: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:24) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:37) Justin Faulk: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:35) Cam Fowler: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:38) Tyler Tucker: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:08) Pius Suter: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:09) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:30) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 10:04) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:23) Kaedan Korczak: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:11) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:30) Tomas Hertl: bat, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:31) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:39) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:20) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 13:29) Justin Faulk: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:57) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:23) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 14:45) Jack Eichel: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:50) Noah Hanifin: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:17) Shea Theodore: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:34) Pius Suter: tip-in, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:00) Jack Eichel: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:11) Noah Hanifin: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:15) Justin Faulk: slap, 122 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:58) Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:01) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:26) Brett Howden: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:31) Shea Theodore: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:25) Shea Theodore: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:13) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:05) Brayden McNabb: bat, 15 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:07) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:08) Oskar Sundqvist: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:45) Pavel Buchnevich: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:56) Brandon Saad: backhand, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:04) Noah Hanifin: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:55) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:13) Nick Bjugstad: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:02) Keegan Kolesar: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:42) Brayden McNabb: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:47) Matthew Kessel: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:32) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:47) Cole Reinhardt: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 13:48) Colton Parayko: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:05) Oskar Sundqvist: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:24) Tyler Tucker: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:49) Pius Suter: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:10) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:16) Nick Bjugstad: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:55) Mitch Marner: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:06) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:18) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:24) Brett Howden: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:25) Reilly Smith: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:44) Shea Theodore: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:58) Jack Eichel: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:52) Mitch Marner: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:50) Dalibor Dvorsky: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 2:51) Jack Eichel: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:02) Braeden Bowman: poke, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 5:29) Brett Howden: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:59) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:37) Mitch Marner: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 7:44) Cam Fowler: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:33) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 9:35) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:56) Robert Thomas: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:48) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:49) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:26) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:47) Pavel Buchnevich: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:42) Nick Bjugstad: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:16) Nathan Walker: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:18) Nathan Walker: deflected, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:53) Brandon Saad: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 12:52) Braeden Bowman: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:58) Noah Hanifin: GOAL, slap, 63 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:36) Tomas Hertl: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:20) Philip Broberg: GOAL, wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:57)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 011 -1 60.25 0019:39
93 Mitch Marner 000 +1 40.29 0019:23
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 022 +1 60.23 1017:45
48 Tomas Hertl 101 +1 50.44 0117:32
42 Braeden Bowman 101 -1 60.57 0016:08
49 Ivan Barbashev 000 -1 30.25 0014:54
21 Brett Howden 011 +2 40.09 0014:19
19 Reilly Smith 022 +2 10.06 0014:08
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 0 10.01 3012:58
20 Brandon Saad 101 +2 40.23 0012:22
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 00.00 1011:55
29 Cole Reinhardt 000 0 30.15 1011:31
Defense
15 Noah Hanifin 101 +1 110.18 0323:37
27 Shea Theodore 000 +1 70.12 1021:42
3 Brayden McNabb 000 0 50.14 1321:06
28 Zach Whitecloud 011 +1 00.00 1219:58
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 0 40.04 2219:01
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 +1 20.04 1008:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Akira Schmid 23122 .957 1.40 +0.40

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 0 30.17 0018:41
22 Pius Suter 000 0 30.09 2016:28
18 Robert Thomas 011 +1 30.10 0115:58
81 Dylan Holloway 000 -2 00.00 4015:44
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 -1 30.02 3015:30
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 011 +1 50.29 1015:17
10 Brayden Schenn 000 -2 00.00 2014:20
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 -2 50.10 0014:17
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 20.09 4113:39
72 Nick Bjugstad 000 0 40.15 2113:27
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 0 10.13 2112:56
26 Nathan Walker 000 -1 30.04 3012:33
Defense
72 Justin Faulk 000 0 40.03 0224:16
17 Cam Fowler 000 0 50.05 0123:42
6 Philip Broberg 101 -1 20.06 0420:34
55 Colton Parayko 000 0 10.05 0119:47
4 Matthew Kessel 000 -2 20.01 0314:21
75 Tyler Tucker 000 -1 20.02 1013:57
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joel Hofer 34430 .882 3.09 -0.91

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +2.07 +1.40 +0.15 +0.58 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 17:45
42 Braeden Bowman R +1.80 +0.75 +0.37 +0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:08
19 Reilly Smith R +1.64 +1.25 +0.04 +0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:08
48 Tomas Hertl C +1.61 +0.75 +0.29 +0.52 0.00 -0.02 +0.07 — 17:32
15 Noah Hanifin D +1.36 +0.75 +0.12 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 23:37
9 Jack Eichel C +1.33 +0.55 +0.16 +0.67 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 19:39
20 Brandon Saad L +1.12 +0.75 +0.15 +0.38 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 12:22
2 Zach Whitecloud D +1.11 +0.70 0.00 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 19:58
21 Brett Howden C +1.06 +0.55 +0.06 +0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:19
27 Shea Theodore D +1.06 0.00 +0.08 +0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:42
49 Ivan Barbashev L +0.85 0.00 +0.16 +0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:54
3 Brayden McNabb D +0.80 0.00 +0.09 +0.71 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 21:06
93 Mitch Marner R +0.72 0.00 +0.19 +0.58 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 19:23
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.64 0.00 +0.03 +0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:02
6 Kaedan Korczak D +0.60 0.00 +0.03 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:01
40 Akira Schmid G +0.40 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.40 60:00
23 Cole Reinhardt L +0.26 0.00 +0.10 +0.01 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:31
10 Colton Sissons C +0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.14 +0.30 +0.05 -0.02 — 11:55
55 Keegan Kolesar R +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:58

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
18 Robert Thomas C +0.59 +0.70 +0.06 -0.19 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 15:58
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +0.49 +0.55 +0.19 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:17
6 Philip Broberg D +0.21 +0.75 +0.04 -0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 20:34
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +0.20 0.00 +0.08 +0.08 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 12:56
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.03 0.00 +0.06 -0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:39
22 Pius Suter C -0.04 0.00 +0.06 -0.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 16:28
55 Colton Parayko D -0.19 0.00 +0.03 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:47
77 Nick Bjugstad C -0.20 0.00 +0.10 -0.18 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 13:27
17 Cam Fowler D -0.35 0.00 +0.03 -0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:42
72 Justin Faulk D -0.41 0.00 +0.02 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 24:16
25 Jordan Kyrou R -0.47 0.00 +0.06 -0.71 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 14:17
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.60 0.00 +0.01 -0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:57
89 Pavel Buchnevich L -0.62 0.00 +0.11 -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:41
51 Matthew Kessel D -0.69 0.00 +0.01 -0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 14:21
70 Oskar Sundqvist C -0.69 0.00 +0.01 -0.61 0.00 -0.05 -0.04 — 15:30
26 Nathan Walker L -0.72 0.00 +0.02 -0.40 -0.30 0.00 -0.04 — 12:33
10 Brayden Schenn C -0.75 0.00 0.00 -0.95 +0.15 +0.07 -0.02 — 14:20
30 Joel Hofer G -0.91 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.91 60:00
81 Dylan Holloway L -0.94 0.00 0.00 -0.95 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 15:44

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.