hockeystats.io

New York IslandersNYI 1–4 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Sunday, November 16, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 100 1 29
Colorado AvalancheCOL 022 4 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:05 NYI Emil Heineman (9) Tony DeAngelo (7), Kyle Palmieri (9) · deflected xG 0.09 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:32 COL Ross Colton (3) Cale Makar (19), Brock Nelson (4) · wrist xG 0.07 1–1 ▶
5:51 COL Victor Olofsson (6) Sam Malinski (9) · tip-in xG 0.06 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:25 COL Martin Necas (13)EN Unassisted · snap xG 0.46 1–3 ▶
19:44 COL Brock Nelson (5) Brent Burns (9), Parker Kelly (4) · tip-in xG 0.11 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 50%Deserve to win50% COL
NYICOL
2.81Expected goals3.26
1Goals (no shootout)4
1.53Expected goals, 5 on 52.10
56Shot attempts57
45Unblocked attempts41
29Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
8:50 COL No shift No shift · Makar, 18:10 on the bench
No shift after 8:14 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (3:21) before that
15:00 COL No shift No shift · Bardakov, 12:02 on the bench
No shift after 1:18 of the 3rd; 11 shifts (6:00) before that
16:30 NYI No shift No shift · Cizikas, 10:19 on the bench
No shift from 2:42 to 19:25 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (5:18) before that
17:51 NYI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Sorokin, down 2–1
With 2:09 left; COL scored at 19:25 of the 3rd (1–3)

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Brent Burns: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:11) Gabriel Landeskog: deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 1:41) Adam Pelech: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:58) Ross Colton: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:42) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:22) Cale Makar: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:15) Victor Olofsson: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:25) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:55) Martin Necas: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:43) Bo Horvat: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:01) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:18) Alexander Romanov: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:44) Adam Pelech: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:55) Maxim Shabanov: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 13:17) Brent Burns: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:45) Maxim Shabanov: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 16:18) Adam Pelech: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:31) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:37) Sam Malinski: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:47) Ross Colton: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:48) Brent Burns: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:08) Anthony Duclair: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:08) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:14) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:36) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:16) Devon Toews: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:53) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:24) Sam Malinski: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:42) Bo Horvat: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:22) Bo Horvat: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:23) Alexander Romanov: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 3:26) Devon Toews: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:48) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:57) Samuel Girard: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:44) Ross Colton: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:21) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:36) Kyle Palmieri: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:37) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:43) Bo Horvat: slap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:13) Anders Lee: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 9:57) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:29) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 10:36) Martin Necas: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 11:28) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:49) Martin Necas: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 11:54) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:10) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:16) Mathew Barzal: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:45) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:32) Anders Lee: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:26) Gavin Brindley: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:07) Brent Burns: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:14) Brock Nelson: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:22) Bo Horvat: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 19:17) Josh Manson: slap, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:03) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:33) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:52) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:55) Kyle Palmieri: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:16) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:31) Josh Manson: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:12) Josh Manson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:38) Brock Nelson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 4:28) Ross Colton: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 4:30) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 5:17) Anders Lee: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:58) Nathan MacKinnon: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:45) Cale Makar: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:16) Alexander Romanov: wrist, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:36) Kyle Palmieri: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:46) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:07) Ryan Pulock: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:55) Bo Horvat: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:56) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:07) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:34) Mathew Barzal: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:15) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 13:17) Cale Makar: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 13:56) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:52) Kyle Palmieri: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 17:14) Bo Horvat: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 18:26) Emil Heineman: GOAL, deflected, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:05) Ross Colton: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:32) Victor Olofsson: GOAL, tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:51) Martin Necas: GOAL, snap, 140 ft, xG 0.46 (P3 19:25) Brock Nelson: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:44)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Mathew Barzal 000 -2 100.44 1123:50
14 Bo Horvat 000 0 90.58 0022:25
21 Kyle Palmieri 011 0 50.32 0022:19
92 Jonathan Drouin 000 -1 20.25 0121:12
92 Simon Holmstrom 000 -1 00.00 0416:41
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 -1 00.00 0115:10
51 Emil Heineman 101 0 20.09 0114:28
72 Anders Lee 000 -2 40.24 0013:36
11 Anthony Duclair 000 -1 10.03 0010:45
49 Maxim Shabanov 000 -1 30.28 0010:33
64 Calum Ritchie 000 -1 00.00 0006:54
53 Casey Cizikas 000 -1 10.01 1005:37
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 000 -1 70.21 1121:40
28 Alexander Romanov 000 -1 30.23 3220:02
24 Scott Mayfield 000 -1 20.05 3218:28
3 Adam Pelech 000 -1 40.06 1118:18
77 Tony DeAngelo 011 0 20.01 0017:14
6 Ryan Pulock 000 -1 10.01 1016:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ilya Sorokin 27324 .889 2.80 -0.20

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 0 20.23 0122:06
29 Nathan MacKinnon 000 +1 40.22 0121:19
88 Martin Necas 101 +1 60.85 1019:09
11 Brock Nelson 112 +1 30.35 1119:04
18 Jack Drury 000 +2 00.00 0117:16
95 Victor Olofsson 101 +1 40.16 0016:18
79 Ross Colton 101 0 50.45 4014:43
54 Gavin Brindley 000 0 20.10 2014:30
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 +2 30.39 2014:20
17 Parker Kelly 011 +1 00.00 2108:54
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 00.00 0006:00
16 Taylor Makar 000 0 00.00 2003:21
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 +1 80.20 1025:06
7 Devon Toews 000 +2 50.07 0324:02
84 Brent Burns 011 0 50.04 0319:03
42 Josh Manson 000 +1 40.06 3017:07
49 Samuel Girard 000 +1 20.01 1016:19
70 Sam Malinski 011 +1 40.11 0013:23
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 29128 .966 2.81 +1.81

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
77 Tony DeAngelo D +0.88 +0.70 0.00 +0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:14
51 Emil Heineman L +0.61 +0.75 +0.06 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:28
48 Matthew Schaefer D +0.57 0.00 +0.14 +0.28 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 21:39
21 Kyle Palmieri C +0.53 +0.55 +0.21 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:19
13 Mathew Barzal C +0.33 0.00 +0.29 -0.06 0.00 +0.05 +0.05 — 23:50
14 Bo Horvat C +0.27 0.00 +0.38 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 22:25
29 Jonathan Drouin L +0.24 0.00 +0.16 +0.04 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 21:12
49 Max Shabanov R +0.16 0.00 +0.18 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:33
53 Casey Cizikas C -0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 5:37
64 Calum Ritchie C -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 6:54
30 Ilya Sorokin G -0.20 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.20 58:26
11 Anthony Duclair L -0.25 0.00 +0.02 -0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:45
3 Adam Pelech D -0.33 0.00 +0.04 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:18
6 Ryan Pulock D -0.39 0.00 +0.01 -0.24 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:22
28 Alexander Romanov D -0.41 0.00 +0.15 -0.77 +0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 20:03
27 Anders Lee L -0.43 0.00 +0.16 -0.44 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:36
10 Simon Holmstrom R -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.64 0.00 +0.01 +0.18 — 16:41
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.63 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 15:10
24 Scott Mayfield D -0.74 0.00 +0.03 -0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 18:28

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Brock Nelson C +2.18 +1.30 +0.23 +0.52 +0.15 -0.07 +0.05 — 19:04
70 Sam Malinski D +1.99 +0.70 +0.07 +1.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:23
41 Scott Wedgewood G +1.81 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.81 60:00
88 Martin Necas C +1.45 +0.75 +0.56 +0.30 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 19:09
95 Victor Olofsson L +1.12 +0.75 +0.10 +0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:18
20 Ross Colton C +1.09 +0.75 +0.30 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:43
17 Parker Kelly C +0.90 +0.55 0.00 +0.33 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 8:54
49 Samuel Girard D +0.88 0.00 +0.01 +0.89 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:19
8 Cale Makar D +0.80 +0.70 +0.13 +0.12 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 25:06
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +0.69 0.00 +0.15 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:06
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +0.69 0.00 +0.26 +0.43 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 14:20
84 Brent Burns D +0.49 +0.70 +0.03 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 19:03
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +0.45 0.00 +0.15 +0.33 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 — 21:19
7 Devon Toews D +0.40 0.00 +0.05 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 24:02
18 Jack Drury C +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.30 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 17:16
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.17 0.00 +0.06 +0.28 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:30
42 Josh Manson D -0.10 0.00 +0.04 -0.33 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 17:07
16 Taylor Makar L -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 3:21
93 Zakhar Bardakov C -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 6:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.