Monday, November 17, 2025
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
CAR 79%Deserve to win 21% BOS
CAR BOS
3.86 Expected goals 2.01
3 Goals (no shootout) 1
2.84 Expected goals, 5 on 5 1.15
80 Shot attempts 48
58 Unblocked attempts 38
32 Shots on goal 30
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
13:40
CAR
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced BOS 1.33–0.15
In xG over 10 minutes, 5:40 to 15:40 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
Shot map
CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → BOS shoots
William Carrier: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:15)
Fraser Minten: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:31)
Sebastian Aho: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:39)
K'Andre Miller: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:46)
Alex Steeves: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:24)
Riley Tufte: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:07)
Sean Kuraly: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:33)
Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 3:26)
Alex Steeves: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:55)
Mike Reilly: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:07)
Henri Jokiharju: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:25)
David Pastrnak: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:44)
Jordan Staal: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:56)
Seth Jarvis: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 7:54)
Mason Lohrei: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:51)
Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:43)
Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:18)
Sean Kuraly: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:44)
Joel Nystrom: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:24)
Seth Jarvis: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:40)
Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:17)
Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:26)
Michael Eyssimont: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 14:08)
Mike Reilly: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:15)
Sebastian Aho: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:36)
David Pastrnak: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:03)
Mark Jankowski: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:36)
Michael Eyssimont: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:46)
William Carrier: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:50)
Sean Walker: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 18:54)
Morgan Geekie: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:09)
Hampus Lindholm: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:44)
Andrew Peeke: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:47)
Joel Nystrom: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:39)
Sean Walker: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:16)
Eric Robinson: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:14)
Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:16)
Mike Reilly: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:45)
Andrew Peeke: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:14)
Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:35)
Sean Walker: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:49)
Seth Jarvis: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 6:06)
Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:35)
Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:01)
Logan Stankoven: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:11)
Mike Reilly: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:55)
Jordan Staal: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 8:24)
Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:47)
Nikita Zadorov: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:10)
Nikolaj Ehlers: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:30)
Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:43)
Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:00)
Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:08)
Sean Kuraly: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:41)
Morgan Geekie: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:07)
Taylor Hall: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:08)
William Carrier: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:00)
Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:35)
Fraser Minten: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:09)
William Carrier: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 18:06)
Mason Lohrei: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:07)
Seth Jarvis: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 19:17)
Michael Eyssimont: bat, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:59)
Mike Reilly: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:19)
Eric Robinson: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:26)
Alexander Nikishin: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:28)
Sean Kuraly: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:10)
Alexander Nikishin: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 2:30)
Nikita Zadorov: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:13)
Jonathan Aspirot: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:03)
Tanner Jeannot: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:06)
Tanner Jeannot: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:45)
Nikita Zadorov: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:07)
Sean Kuraly: backhand, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:36)
Mike Reilly: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:08)
Alex Steeves: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:05)
Mike Reilly: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:31)
Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:20)
Sebastian Aho: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 11:01)
Sebastian Aho: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 11:07)
Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:21)
Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:40)
Taylor Hall: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:23)
Fraser Minten: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:00)
Eric Robinson: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:16)
Hampus Lindholm: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:54)
Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:46)
Alex Steeves: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:10)
Michael Eyssimont: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:01)
Matěj Blümel: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 19:34)
Michael Eyssimont: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:45)
Riley Tufte: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:46)
Jordan Staal: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:25)
Mark Jankowski: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.29 (P2 13:34)
Taylor Hall: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 17:27)
Riley Tufte: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 19:50)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Carolina Hurricanes
Boston Bruins
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Carolina Hurricanes
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
64 Joel Nystrom D
+2.75
+1.40
+0.02
+1.30
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
20:01
71 Taylor Hall L
+2.67
+1.45
+0.23
+0.97
0.00
-0.01
+0.02
—
13:51
77 Mark Jankowski L
+1.80
+0.75
+0.28
+0.77
0.00
+0.02
-0.02
—
13:13
11 Jordan Staal C
+1.77
+0.75
+0.17
+0.52
+0.30
-0.02
+0.05
—
15:39
26 Sean Walker D
+1.69
+0.55
+0.09
+0.95
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
19:45
50 Eric Robinson L
+1.32
0.00
+0.08
+1.26
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
13:35
20 Sebastian Aho C
+1.30
0.00
+0.19
+1.12
0.00
+0.03
-0.04
—
18:40
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D
+1.30
0.00
+0.03
+1.24
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
18:45
28 William Carrier L
+1.10
+0.55
+0.16
+0.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
11:32
24 Seth Jarvis C
+1.06
0.00
+0.37
+0.70
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
19:13
52 Pyotr Kochetkov G
+1.01
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+1.01
60:00
37 Andrei Svechnikov R
+0.82
0.00
+0.27
+0.72
-0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
14:57
19 K'Andre Miller D
+0.79
0.00
+0.01
+0.95
-0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
21:48
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L
+0.48
0.00
+0.30
+0.22
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
13:29
48 Jordan Martinook L
+0.43
0.00
0.00
+0.52
-0.15
-0.01
+0.07
—
13:53
6 Mike Reilly D
+0.26
0.00
+0.16
+0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
17:34
21 Alexander Nikishin D
+0.12
0.00
+0.11
+0.06
-0.15
0.00
+0.10
—
19:35
53 Jackson Blake R
-0.08
0.00
0.00
-0.17
0.00
-0.01
+0.10
—
12:39
22 Logan Stankoven C
-0.13
0.00
+0.03
-0.09
0.00
-0.07
0.00
—
12:09
Boston Bruins
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
81 Michael Eyssimont C
+0.99
+0.70
+0.29
-0.14
+0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
15:58
1 Jeremy Swayman G
+0.86
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.86
60:00
93 Fraser Minten C
+0.62
0.00
+0.15
+0.54
-0.15
+0.03
+0.05
—
14:47
84 Tanner Jeannot L
+0.56
0.00
+0.05
+0.37
0.00
-0.01
+0.15
—
13:57
10 Riley Tufte L
+0.46
+0.75
+0.27
-0.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
15:13
6 Mason Lohrei D
-0.02
0.00
+0.05
-0.10
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
18:00
20 Henri Jokiharju D
-0.09
+0.55
+0.02
-0.63
0.00
0.00
-0.03
—
20:32
91 Nikita Zadorov D
-0.29
0.00
+0.05
-0.46
-0.15
0.00
+0.28
—
21:01
13 Matěj Blümel R
-0.35
0.00
+0.10
-0.42
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
—
13:10
47 Mark Kastelic C
-0.38
0.00
0.00
-0.35
0.00
-0.03
0.00
—
13:30
45 Jonathan Aspirot D
-0.38
0.00
+0.02
-0.43
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
11:09
18 Pavel Zacha C
-0.52
0.00
0.00
-0.55
0.00
+0.05
-0.02
—
16:48
52 Sean Kuraly C
-0.55
0.00
+0.06
-0.64
0.00
+0.03
0.00
—
13:19
21 Alex Steeves C
-0.70
0.00
+0.07
-0.77
0.00
-0.01
+0.01
—
12:31
92 Marat Khusnutdinov C
-1.19
0.00
0.00
-1.51
+0.30
+0.04
-0.02
—
14:43
88 David Pastrnak R
-1.26
0.00
+0.03
-1.40
+0.15
+0.01
-0.05
—
20:06
27 Hampus Lindholm D
-1.30
0.00
+0.05
-1.34
0.00
0.00
-0.01
—
22:58
39 Morgan Geekie C
-1.45
0.00
+0.07
-1.50
0.00
-0.02
0.00
—
15:20
26 Andrew Peeke D
-1.48
0.00
+0.01
-1.65
0.00
0.00
+0.16
—
20:58
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.