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Edmonton OilersEDM 1–5 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Monday, November 17, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM 010 1 33
Buffalo SabresBUF 122 5 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
19:03 BUF Noah Ostlund (2)PP Isak Rosen (3), Rasmus Dahlin (11) · wrist xG 0.15 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:29 EDM Jack Roslovic (7) Leon Draisaitl (11), Andrew Mangiapane (3) · snap xG 0.07 1–1 ▶
8:41 BUF Bowen Byram (3) Tyson Kozak (1), Peyton Krebs (5) · wrist xG 0.06 1–2 ▶
9:43 BUF Beck Malenstyn (1) Rasmus Dahlin (12), Mattias Samuelsson (5) · tip-in xG 0.06 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
7:55 BUF Noah Ostlund (3) Josh Dunne (1) · wrist xG 0.07 1–4 ▶
17:37 BUF Tage Thompson (9)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.35 1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 28%Deserve to win72% BUF
EDMBUF
2.16Expected goals3.82
1Goals (no shootout)5
1.62Expected goals, 5 on 53.10
65Shot attempts64
46Unblocked attempts47
33Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
13:10 EDM No shift No shift · Philp, 14:48 on the bench
No shift after 3:10 of the 3rd; 11 shifts (6:23) before that
15:43 EDM Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 4–1
With 4:17 left; BUF scored at 17:37 of the 3rd (1–5)

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Zach Hyman: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:05) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:31) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 0:33) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:00) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 4:36) Alec Regula: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:40) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:25) Tage Thompson: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 7:49) Owen Power: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:26) Mattias Ekholm: backhand, 39 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:09) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:18) Connor McDavid: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:53) Leon Draisaitl: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:39) Adam Henrique: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:38) Matt Savoie: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 12:40) Alex Tuch: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:39) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:18) Peyton Krebs: slap, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:22) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:39) Alex Tuch: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:56) Darnell Nurse: snap, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:24) Andrew Mangiapane: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:25) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:39) Tage Thompson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:39) Zach Hyman: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 0:23) Tage Thompson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:00) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:19) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:21) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:26) Bowen Byram: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:11) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:32) Adam Henrique: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:09) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:13) Peyton Krebs: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:25) Tage Thompson: tip-in, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:59) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:09) Tyson Kozak: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:13) Tyson Kozak: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:36) Brett Kulak: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:22) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:34) Alex Tuch: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:16) Conor Timmins: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:43) Jack Quinn: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:06) Jordan Greenway: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:18) Jack Quinn: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:18) Evan Bouchard: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:32) Matt Savoie: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:23) Brett Kulak: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:32) Darnell Nurse: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:35) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:44) Mattias Ekholm: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:59) Vasily Podkolzin: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:07) Matt Savoie: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 19:35) Connor McDavid: tip-in, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:18) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:55) Jack Quinn: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:03) Ryan McLeod: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:09) Alex Tuch: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:58) Jack Quinn: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:17) Jake Walman: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:55) Alex Tuch: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 7:45) Alex Tuch: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:46) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:18) Ryan McLeod: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:36) Isak Rosen: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 8:47) Zach Hyman: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:23) Andrew Mangiapane: tip-in, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:27) Noah Ostlund: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:40) Evan Bouchard: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:18) Alex Tuch: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:33) Tage Thompson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:41) Curtis Lazar: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:04) Josh Doan: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:34) Alex Tuch: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 13:54) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:59) Josh Doan: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:09) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:46) Evan Bouchard: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:05) Evan Bouchard: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:10) Evan Bouchard: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:28) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:14) Trent Frederic: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 18:14) Trent Frederic: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:15) Curtis Lazar: bat, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:23) Alec Regula: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:35) Mattias Ekholm: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:40) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:01) Noah Ostlund: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:03) Jack Roslovic: GOAL, snap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:29) Bowen Byram: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:41) Beck Malenstyn: GOAL, tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:43) Noah Ostlund: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:55) Tage Thompson: GOAL, wrist, 146 ft, xG 0.35 (P3 17:37)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Connor McDavid 000 -2 20.05 0023:35
29 Leon Draisaitl 011 0 40.36 0023:07
18 Zach Hyman 000 -2 40.30 4022:06
96 Jack Roslovic 101 -1 30.07 0017:51
22 Matt Savoie 000 -1 30.38 0015:49
92 Vasily Podkolzin 000 -1 10.03 4114:41
26 Andrew Mangiapane 011 +1 30.11 1013:33
19 Adam Henrique 000 0 50.12 1113:23
10 Trent Frederic 000 0 30.22 5112:24
20 Curtis Lazar 000 -2 20.04 1009:03
13 Mattias Janmark 000 -1 00.00 0008:35
15 Noah Philp 000 -1 00.00 1006:23
Defense
2 Evan Bouchard 000 0 100.28 0324:16
14 Mattias Ekholm 000 +1 90.08 2422:35
25 Darnell Nurse 000 -2 90.03 1122:03
96 Jake Walman 000 -3 10.03 0119:38
27 Brett Kulak 000 -1 40.03 0418:16
75 Alec Regula 000 -1 20.03 0012:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 27423 .852 3.48 -0.52

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Alex Tuch 000 +1 110.66 1118:52
72 Tage Thompson 101 +1 90.70 1018:29
91 Josh Doan 000 -1 40.11 0017:51
12 Jordan Greenway 000 +1 20.30 0116:48
71 Ryan McLeod 000 0 50.33 0116:35
22 Jack Quinn 000 -1 60.27 0216:30
48 Tyson Kozak 011 +1 30.19 1015:50
19 Peyton Krebs 011 +1 40.28 1312:29
29 Beck Malenstyn 101 +2 30.33 4211:10
86 Noah Ostlund 202 +2 30.26 0110:42
44 Josh Dunne 011 +2 00.00 0009:12
Defense
23 Mattias Samuelsson 011 +1 30.03 1125:36
26 Rasmus Dahlin 022 +1 30.08 0124:02
24 Bowen Byram 101 +2 20.07 0220:40
21 Conor Timmins 000 +1 20.01 3119:09
25 Owen Power 000 0 10.05 0116:54
78 Jacob Bryson 000 +1 00.00 1112:19
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Colten Ellis 33132 .970 2.16 +1.16

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Leon Draisaitl C +0.91 +0.70 +0.24 -0.04 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 23:07
88 Andrew Mangiapane L +0.78 +0.55 +0.07 +0.02 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:33
28 Jack Roslovic C +0.41 +0.75 +0.04 -0.33 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 17:51
10 Trent Frederic C +0.41 0.00 +0.14 +0.22 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 12:24
19 Adam Henrique C +0.30 0.00 +0.08 +0.14 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 13:23
2 Evan Bouchard D +0.25 0.00 +0.18 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 24:16
27 Brett Kulak D +0.05 0.00 +0.02 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 18:16
14 Mattias Ekholm D -0.26 0.00 +0.05 -0.35 -0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 22:35
75 Alec Regula D -0.36 0.00 +0.02 -0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:09
48 Noah Philp C -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:23
74 Stuart Skinner G -0.52 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.52 58:06
13 Mattias Janmark C -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 8:35
20 Curtis Lazar C -0.63 0.00 +0.03 -0.68 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 9:03
22 Matt Savoie C -0.70 0.00 +0.25 -0.93 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:49
92 Vasily Podkolzin R -0.86 0.00 +0.02 -0.93 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:41
18 Zach Hyman L -0.91 0.00 +0.19 -1.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:06
96 Jake Walman D -1.24 0.00 +0.02 -1.31 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:38
97 Connor McDavid C -1.33 0.00 +0.03 -1.17 -0.15 +0.02 -0.06 — 23:35
25 Darnell Nurse D -1.50 0.00 +0.02 -1.58 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:03

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +2.16 +1.25 +0.05 +0.63 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 24:02
72 Tage Thompson C +2.15 +0.75 +0.46 +0.96 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:29
86 Noah Ostlund C +2.11 +1.50 +0.17 +0.44 0.00 -0.05 +0.05 — 10:42
4 Bowen Byram D +1.92 +0.75 +0.05 +1.05 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:40
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +1.81 +0.55 +0.02 +1.21 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 25:36
89 Alex Tuch R +1.54 0.00 +0.43 +0.94 +0.15 -0.02 +0.05 — 18:52
29 Beck Malenstyn L +1.43 +0.75 +0.22 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:10
19 Peyton Krebs C +1.35 +0.55 +0.18 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 12:29
63 Isak Rosen R +1.22 +0.70 +0.10 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:52
48 Tyson Kozak C +1.16 +0.70 +0.13 +0.43 0.00 -0.05 -0.04 — 15:50
92 Colten Ellis G +1.16 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.16 60:00
44 Josh Dunne C +1.12 +0.70 0.00 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 9:12
21 Conor Timmins D +0.93 0.00 +0.01 +0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:09
91 Josh Doan R +0.66 0.00 +0.07 +0.74 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:51
12 Jordan Greenway L +0.65 0.00 +0.19 +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:48
22 Jack Quinn R +0.42 0.00 +0.17 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 16:30
71 Ryan McLeod C +0.42 0.00 +0.21 +0.10 0.00 +0.04 +0.07 — 16:35
78 Jacob Bryson D +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:19
25 Owen Power D -0.05 0.00 +0.03 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.