| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 15 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 41 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:50 | Drew O'Connor (6) Tyler Myers (5), Quinn Hughes (17) · wrist xG 0.24 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 15:14 | Jake DeBrusk (8)PP Kiefer Sherwood (2), Quinn Hughes (18) · snap xG 0.19 | 2–0 ▶ | |
| 15:50 | A.J. Greer (4) Carter Verhaeghe (7), Sam Bennett (3) · snap xG 0.11 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 19:52 | Seth Jones (2)PP Sam Reinhart (4), Sergei Bobrovsky (1) · snap xG 0.19 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 2:23 | Luke Kunin (1) Noah Gregor (1), Gustav Forsling (9) · wrist xG 0.20 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 6:10 | Evan Rodrigues (5) Sam Reinhart (5), Jesper Boqvist (2) · snap xG 0.18 | 2–4 ▶ | |
| 7:17 | Anton Lundell (5) Brad Marchand (10), Aaron Ekblad (4) · snap xG 0.08 | 2–5 ▶ | |
| 7:55 | Elias Pettersson (5) Evander Kane (7), Quinn Hughes (19) · wrist xG 0.10 | 3–5 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 1:24 | Elias Pettersson (6) Kiefer Sherwood (3), Tom Willander (3) · backhand xG 0.04 | 4–5 ▶ | |
| 3:14 | Filip Hronek (1)PP Max Sasson (1), Evander Kane (8) · snap xG 0.20 | 5–5 ▶ | |
| 4:02 | Sam Bennett (4) Niko Mikkola (4), Uvis Balinskis (1) · tip-in xG 0.06 | 5–6 ▶ | |
| 8:19 | Seth Jones (3)PP Sam Reinhart (6), Carter Verhaeghe (8) · snap xG 0.20 | 5–7 ▶ | |
| 18:14 | Brad Marchand (13)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.35 | 5–8 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| VAN | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.91 | Expected goals | 4.34 |
| 5 | Goals (no shootout) | 8 |
| 1.04 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.63 |
| 53 | Shot attempts | 70 |
| 30 | Unblocked attempts | 52 |
| 15 | Shots on goal | 41 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 15:14 | VAN | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · VAN takes the lead, 61–39%
FLA had led since 4:55 of the 1st, by as much as 66% |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 2:23 | FLA | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 63–37%
VAN had led since 15:14 of the 1st, by as much as 61% |
| 6:10 | VAN | Goalie | Goalie · Patera −2.3 goals saved
4 goals on 1.69 xG, 18 shots on goal |
| 8:20 | FLA | No shift | No shift · Schwindt, 28:22 on the bench
No shift after 13:01 of the 1st; 4 shifts (2:36) before that |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 1:24 | FLA | Goalie | Goalie · Bobrovsky −2.5 goals saved
4 goals on 1.48 xG, 11 shots on goal |
| 18:04 | VAN | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Patera, down 7–5
With 1:56 left; FLA scored at 18:14 of the 3rd (5–8) |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 40 | Elias Pettersson | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.14 | 0 | 3 | 21:24 |
| 6 | Brock Boeser | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 |
| 44 | Kiefer Sherwood | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 0.15 | 3 | 0 | 20:41 |
| 91 | Evander Kane | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0.19 | 0 | 1 | 19:45 |
| 74 | Jake DeBrusk | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 |
| 63 | Max Sasson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.03 | 1 | 1 | 14:50 |
| 64 | David Kampf | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 |
| 18 | Drew O'Connor | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 |
| 94 | Linus Karlsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0 | 11:15 |
| 54 | Aatu Räty | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 07:51 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 43 | Quinn Hughes | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0.05 | 0 | 3 | 29:39 |
| 17 | Filip Hronek | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.24 | 2 | 1 | 25:10 |
| 57 | Tyler Myers | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 0.04 | 1 | 4 | 19:05 |
| 26 | Marcus Pettersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 1 | 16:36 |
| 5 | Tom Willander | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 |
| 25 | Elias Pettersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 10:57 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiri Patera | 40 | 7 | 33 | .825 | 3.62 | -3.38 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Sam Reinhart | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 0.25 | 1 | 4 | 24:41 |
| 17 | Evan Rodrigues | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.49 | 1 | 1 | 21:47 |
| 15 | Anton Lundell | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0.35 | 2 | 0 | 20:13 |
| 63 | Brad Marchand | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 | 18:46 |
| 23 | Carter Verhaeghe | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 0.06 | 1 | 0 | 17:40 |
| 70 | Jesper Boqvist | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.29 | 5 | 0 | 16:27 |
| 9 | Sam Bennett | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 6 | 0.53 | 3 | 0 | 16:05 |
| 11 | Mackie Samoskevich | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 |
| 18 | A.J. Greer | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.25 | 4 | 0 | 12:14 |
| 71 | Luke Kunin | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3 | 07:46 |
| 73 | Noah Gregor | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.04 | 1 | 0 | 07:20 |
| 79 | Cole Schwindt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 02:36 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 3 | Seth Jones | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0.54 | 1 | 3 | 24:23 |
| 5 | Aaron Ekblad | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0.04 | 2 | 3 | 22:08 |
| 42 | Gustav Forsling | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.08 | 0 | 5 | 21:47 |
| 77 | Niko Mikkola | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 |
| 26 | Uvis Balinskis | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 12:55 |
| 2 | Jeff Petry | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 11:44 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 15 | 5 | 10 | .667 | 1.91 | -3.09 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 Quinn Hughes D | +1.86 | +1.65 | +0.03 | +0.18 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 29:39 |
| 40 Elias Pettersson C | +1.51 | +1.50 | +0.09 | -0.13 | 0.00 | -0.10 | +0.15 | — | 21:24 |
| 44 Kiefer Sherwood L | +1.49 | +1.40 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 20:41 |
| 91 Evander Kane L | +1.29 | +1.25 | +0.12 | -0.09 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.03 | — | 19:45 |
| 17 Filip Hronek D | +0.93 | +0.75 | +0.16 | -0.31 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 25:10 |
| 18 Drew O'Connor L | +0.69 | +0.75 | +0.20 | -0.25 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:50 |
| 57 Tyler Myers D | +0.60 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -0.48 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 19:05 |
| 63 Max Sasson C | +0.44 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -0.21 | -0.15 | +0.03 | +0.05 | — | 14:50 |
| 74 Jake DeBrusk L | +0.34 | +0.75 | +0.32 | -0.90 | +0.15 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 16:55 |
| 54 Aatu Räty C | -0.40 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.44 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.02 | — | 7:51 |
| 20 Mackenzie MacEachern L | -0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 8:44 |
| 6 Brock Boeser R | -0.59 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.64 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 20:59 |
| 94 Linus Karlsson C | -0.72 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 11:15 |
| 5 Tom Willander D | -0.75 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 11:50 |
| 73 Lukas Reichel L | -0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.80 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 9:34 |
| 29 Marcus Pettersson D | -1.09 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.86 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:36 |
| 64 David Kampf C | -1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.27 | 0.00 | +0.07 | 0.00 | — | 14:08 |
| 25 Elias Pettersson D | -1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:57 |
| 30 Jiri Patera G | -3.38 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -3.38 | 56:49 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sam Reinhart C | +3.18 | +2.10 | +0.16 | +0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | — | 24:41 |
| 3 Seth Jones D | +3.13 | +1.50 | +0.35 | +0.96 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.17 | — | 24:23 |
| 63 Brad Marchand L | +2.51 | +1.45 | +0.65 | +0.07 | +0.30 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 18:46 |
| 17 Evan Rodrigues C | +2.07 | +0.75 | +0.32 | +0.99 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.05 | — | 21:47 |
| 9 Sam Bennett C | +1.94 | +1.30 | +0.35 | +0.68 | -0.30 | -0.04 | -0.04 | — | 16:05 |
| 77 Niko Mikkola D | +1.92 | +0.70 | 0.00 | +1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:29 |
| 23 Carter Verhaeghe C | +1.90 | +1.25 | +0.04 | +0.49 | +0.15 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 17:40 |
| 10 A.J. Greer L | +1.63 | +0.75 | +0.16 | +0.91 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 12:14 |
| 70 Jesper Boqvist C | +1.60 | +0.55 | +0.19 | +0.89 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 16:27 |
| 18 Noah Gregor L | +1.52 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:20 |
| 71 Luke Kunin C | +1.51 | +0.75 | +0.13 | +0.51 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.13 | — | 7:46 |
| 42 Gustav Forsling D | +1.32 | +0.55 | +0.05 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 | — | 21:47 |
| 26 Uvis Balinskis D | +1.24 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.84 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:55 |
| 15 Anton Lundell C | +1.19 | +0.75 | +0.23 | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.02 | — | 20:13 |
| 5 Aaron Ekblad D | +0.87 | +0.55 | +0.03 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | — | 22:08 |
| 11 Mackie Samoskevich R | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.05 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:45 |
| 2 Jeff Petry D | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.46 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:44 |
| 79 Cole Schwindt R | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 2:36 |
| 72 Sergei Bobrovsky G | -2.54 | +0.55 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -3.09 | 59:51 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.