Vancouver Canucks
Pacific Division, Western Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 18 | 33 | 6 | 42 | 149 | 210 | -61 | 36.8% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Vancouver Canucks are effectively eliminated from the playoff race, sitting last in the Western Conference with a 0.0% playoff probability. Their projected finish of 65.3 points leaves them more than 25 points short of the expected cutoff, making any late surge purely academic.
Record and Recent Performance
Vancouver’s 18-33-6 record translates to 42 points through 57 games and a 36.8% points percentage, worst among Western Conference teams. A -61 goal differential with 149 goals for and 210 against underscores systemic issues at both ends of the ice, while a team strength rating of 32.8% ranks last in the conference. Recent form at 25.0% shows no meaningful upward trend, and even their relatively better road strength of 40.2% hasn’t translated into wins.
The Competition
The playoff cutline is currently held by Anaheim at 63 points, already 21 points ahead of Vancouver with the same number of games played. Even the lowest realistic bubble teams like Los Angeles at 60 points and Nashville at 59 are far out of reach, projecting into the mid-to-high 80s in points. With the cutoff projected at 90.6 points, Vancouver would need an unprecedented run just to be competitive with teams that are both stronger and already well ahead in the standings.
Remaining Schedule
The Canucks have 25 games remaining, with a home-heavy split of 14 home and 11 away, but that advantage is muted by a poor 28.6% home strength rating. The remaining opponents average a 53.2% strength, exactly league average, offering no schedule-based relief. Vancouver is expected to collect just 23.3 more points, a pace consistent with their season-long performance and far below what would be required to gain ground.
Outlook
Barring a miracle run that would defy every underlying metric, Vancouver’s season is headed toward the lottery rather than the playoffs. The focus now shifts from postseason math to player development, roster evaluation, and positioning for future seasons rather than chasing an unreachable cutoff.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 0.0% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 62–68 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 89–92 points. Finishes above the cutline in 0.0% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Western Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 68 | 57 | 25 | 52.5% | 40.0% | 53.2% | 96.3 | 91.1% | |
| 5 | 64 | 57 | 25 | 59.6% | 70.0% | 52.3% | 94.4 | 86.1% | |
| 6 | 64 | 58 | 24 | 52.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 90.6 | 58.5% | |
| 7 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 53.4% | 60.0% | 52.7% | 92.9 | 76.5% | |
| 8 | 63 | 56 | 26 | 56.6% | 80.0% | 49.1% | 94.9 | 86.2% | |
| 9 | 60 | 56 | 26 | 49.6% | 55.0% | 49.4% | 89.5 | 43.6% | |
| 10 | 59 | 57 | 25 | 45.6% | 45.0% | 53.0% | 85.7 | 19.3% | |
| 11 | 58 | 55 | 27 | 46.8% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 88.1 | 33.9% | |
| 12 | 53 | 57 | 25 | 42.4% | 40.0% | 52.9% | 78.7 | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 52 | 56 | 26 | 45.7% | 45.0% | 51.3% | 80.5 | 2.8% | |
| 14 | 52 | 56 | 26 | 44.6% | 50.0% | 54.5% | 78.3 | 1.1% | |
| 15 | 49 | 57 | 25 | 35.1% | 25.0% | 53.3% | 72.5 | 0.0% | |
| 16 | 42 | 57 | 25 | 32.8% | 25.0% | 53.2% | 65.3 | 0.0% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.8% | 28.6% | 40.2% | 33.5% | 25.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Elias Pettersson | C | 49 | 13 | 21 | 34 | -15 | 0 | 44 | 81 | 19:31 | |
| 17 | Filip Hronek | D | 57 | 5 | 27 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 79 | 24:26 | |
| 74 | Jake DeBrusk | L | 56 | 13 | 15 | 28 | -15 | 0 | 50 | 22 | 17:14 | |
| 6 | Brock Boeser | R | 50 | 12 | 13 | 25 | -30 | 0 | 30 | 20 | 19:02 | |
| 91 | Evander Kane | L | 56 | 9 | 16 | 25 | -18 | 0 | 94 | 22 | 16:50 | |
| 8 | Conor Garland | R | 46 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -12 | 0 | 28 | 26 | 19:12 | |
| 94 | Linus Karlsson | C | 54 | 11 | 13 | 24 | -15 | 0 | 65 | 13 | 11:33 | |
| 44 | Kiefer Sherwood | L | 44 | 17 | 6 | 23 | -12 | 0 | 210 | 21 | 17:32 | |
| 43 | Quinn Hughes → MIN | D | 26 | 2 | 21 | 23 | -10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 27:25 | |
| 18 | Drew O'Connor | L | 57 | 13 | 8 | 21 | +3 | 0 | 45 | 18 | 14:01 | |
| 5 | Tom Willander | D | 45 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -7 | 0 | 11 | 41 | 15:11 | |
| 63 | Max Sasson | C | 50 | 10 | 2 | 12 | -9 | 0 | 23 | 27 | 11:27 | |
| 54 | Aatu Räty | C | 45 | 3 | 9 | 12 | +1 | 0 | 105 | 10 | 12:08 | |
| 29 | Marcus Pettersson | D | 57 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -3 | 0 | 50 | 96 | 21:10 | |
| 92 | Liam Ohgren | L | 26 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 15 | 12:58 | |
| 53 | Teddy Blueger | C | 10 | 5 | 3 | 8 | +3 | 0 | 24 | 4 | 16:16 | |
| 25 | Elias Pettersson | D | 47 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -8 | 0 | 85 | 57 | 14:25 | |
| 57 | Tyler Myers | D | 57 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -25 | 0 | 65 | 91 | 20:12 | |
| 64 | David Kampf | C | 34 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 0 | 38 | 19 | 15:14 | |
| 24 | Zeev Buium | D | 20 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 20:24 | |
| 13 | Arshdeep Bains | L | 28 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 24 | 5 | 9:12 | |
| 7 | Pierre-Olivier Joseph | D | 21 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -12 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 13:23 | |
| 72 | Filip Chytil | C | 12 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 15:00 | |
| 93 | Marco Rossi ← MIN | C | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 18:42 | |
| 21 | Nils Hoglander | L | 18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 28 | 4 | 11:31 | |
| 23 | Jonathan Lekkerimäki | R | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12:56 | |
| 88 | Nils Aman | C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8:39 | |
| 27 | Derek Forbort | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 13:56 | |
| 90 | Victor Mancini | D | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 16:45 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 04 | @ VGK | 5 - 2 | L |
| Feb 02 | @ UTA | 6 - 2 | L |
| Jan 31 | vs TOR | 2 - 3 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 29 | vs ANA | 2 - 0 | W |
| Jan 27 | vs SJS | 2 - 5 | L |
| Jan 25 | vs PIT | 2 - 3 | L |
| Jan 23 | vs NJD | 4 - 5 | L |
| Jan 21 | vs WSH | 4 - 3 | W |
| Jan 19 | vs NYI | 3 - 4 | L |
| Jan 17 | vs EDM | 0 - 6 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 22:00 | vs Winnipeg Jets | Home | 45.7% | 0.95 | WPG (60%) |
| Feb 28, 22:00 | @ Seattle Kraken | Away | 53.4% | 0.97 | SEA (59%) |
| Mar 02, 22:00 | vs Dallas Stars | Home | 63.9% | 0.79 | DAL (69%) |
| Mar 04, 22:00 | vs Carolina Hurricanes | Home | 68.2% | 0.79 | CAR (69%) |
| Mar 06, 20:30 | @ Chicago Blackhawks | Away | 42.4% | 1.13 | VAN (50%) |
| Mar 07, 19:00 | @ Winnipeg Jets | Away | 45.7% | 1.02 | WPG (56%) |
| Mar 09, 21:00 | vs Ottawa Senators | Home | 55.5% | 0.86 | OTT (65%) |
| Mar 12, 22:00 | vs Nashville Predators | Home | 45.6% | 0.95 | NSH (60%) |
| Mar 14, 22:00 | vs Seattle Kraken | Home | 53.4% | 0.88 | SEA (64%) |
| Mar 17, 22:00 | vs Florida Panthers | Home | 46.7% | 0.93 | FLA (61%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 9.3 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.