hockeystats.io

St. Louis BluesSTL 2–3 Final/OT Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 1100 2 29
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1101 3 29

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:50 STL Nathan Walker (3) Unassisted · xG 0.93 1–0 ▶
5:36 TOR Jake McCabe (3) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.02 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
9:32 TOR Steven Lorentz (2) Sammy Blais (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (12) · wrist xG 0.13 1–2 ▶
13:18 STL Dalibor Dvorsky (3)PP Robert Thomas (10), Cam Fowler (9) · snap xG 0.12 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
4:06 TOR William Nylander (9) Morgan Rielly (13), John Tavares (14) · wrist xG 0.09 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 80%Deserve to win20% TOR
STLTOR
3.46Expected goals1.76
2Goals (no shootout)3
2.33Expected goals, 5 on 51.22
64Shot attempts54
48Unblocked attempts41
29Shots on goal29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00 STL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.22–0.18
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:10 to 10:10 of the 1st; goals 1–1
2nd Period
19:40 STL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.18–0.15
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:50 to 19:50 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
19:40 TOR No shift No shift · Blais, 10:24 on the bench
No shift after 9:36 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (6:31) before that

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Mathieu Joseph: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:31) Colton Parayko: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:54) Bobby McMann: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:02) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:09) Morgan Rielly: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:19) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:21) Pius Suter: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:04) William Nylander: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:43) Mathieu Joseph: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:38) Colton Parayko: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:03) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 167 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:05) Jake McCabe: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:12) Simon Benoit: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:22) Simon Benoit: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:27) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:59) Brayden Schenn: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:01) Matthew Kessel: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:28) Brayden Schenn: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:33) Max Domi: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:33) Troy Stecher: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:34) Morgan Rielly: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:43) Max Domi: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:32) Max Domi: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:55) William Nylander: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:28) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:39) Easton Cowan: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:45) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:49) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:58) Cam Fowler: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:01) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:08) William Nylander: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:42) John Tavares: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:19) Nick Robertson: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:31) Easton Cowan: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:34) Easton Cowan: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:57) Jake McCabe: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:39) Alexey Toropchenko: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:13) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:36) John Tavares: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:02) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:08) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:11) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 9:58) Easton Cowan: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:17) Max Domi: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:21) Nathan Walker: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:03) Dalibor Dvorsky: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 12:37) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:43) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 12:45) Robert Thomas: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:03) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:30) Dalibor Dvorsky: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 15:44) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:38) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:27) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 17:40) John Tavares: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:18) Dakota Mermis: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:39) Pius Suter: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:08) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:41) Jimmy Snuggerud: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:53) Oskar Sundqvist: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:47) Matthew Kessel: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:03) Jimmy Snuggerud: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 3:37) Bobby McMann: wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:14) Dylan Holloway: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:49) Justin Faulk: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:12) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:18) Robert Thomas: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:18) Cam Fowler: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:22) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:26) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:07) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 9:42) John Tavares: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:29) Justin Faulk: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:33) Bobby McMann: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:29) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:33) Bobby McMann: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:10) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:19) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:38) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:43) Oskar Sundqvist: backhand, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:04) John Tavares: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:32) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:23) Robert Thomas: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 0:43) John Tavares: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 1:36) Nathan Walker: GOAL, shot, 10 ft, xG 0.93 (P1 1:50) Jake McCabe: GOAL, wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:36) Steven Lorentz: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 9:32) Dalibor Dvorsky: GOAL, snap, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 13:18) William Nylander: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 4:06)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 011 0 30.16 0121:37
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 000 0 80.47 0017:40
81 Dylan Holloway 000 -1 90.20 1017:25
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 -3 10.00 1017:19
22 Pius Suter 000 0 20.13 1116:48
10 Brayden Schenn 000 -1 50.18 1016:36
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 -1 120.51 1116:13
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 101 -2 50.41 2113:56
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 +1 20.08 2013:28
26 Nathan Walker 101 +1 40.95 4012:37
21 Mathieu Joseph 000 0 20.11 2111:52
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 +1 10.11 2011:19
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 000 -1 20.00 0126:14
55 Colton Parayko 000 0 20.04 1124:53
72 Justin Faulk 000 0 20.04 0321:57
17 Cam Fowler 011 0 20.01 0221:46
4 Matthew Kessel 000 -1 20.06 0012:23
75 Tyler Tucker 000 -1 00.00 0012:15
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 29326 .897 1.76 -1.24

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
91 John Tavares 011 0 70.40 0023:43
88 William Nylander 101 0 70.18 0021:19
74 Bobby McMann 000 0 40.15 1019:34
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 0 20.02 0019:18
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 40.23 0016:33
11 Max Domi 000 0 40.30 0016:26
18 Steven Lorentz 101 +2 10.13 2115:27
81 Dakota Joshua 000 +1 00.00 1214:08
14 Nick Robertson 000 -1 10.02 3213:45
63 Matias Maccelli 000 +1 10.00 0012:15
26 Jacob Quillan 000 +1 00.00 4009:00
0 Sammy Blais 011 +1 00.00 4006:31
Defense
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 011 +1 50.04 0224:37
44 Morgan Rielly 011 +1 80.12 1324:13
22 Jake McCabe 101 +1 40.05 2321:06
44 Simon Benoit 000 -1 20.04 1221:04
36 Dakota Mermis 000 0 20.02 1114:36
28 Troy Stecher 000 +1 20.08 1013:31
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 29228 .966 3.46 +1.46

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
26 Nathan Walker L +2.58 +0.75 +0.62 +1.08 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 12:37
17 Cam Fowler D +1.95 +0.55 +0.01 +1.30 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:46
72 Justin Faulk D +1.64 0.00 +0.03 +1.46 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:57
13 Alexey Toropchenko R +1.32 0.00 +0.07 +1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:19
70 Oskar Sundqvist C +1.11 0.00 +0.05 +1.07 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:28
18 Robert Thomas C +0.98 +0.70 +0.11 +0.06 0.00 +0.07 +0.05 — 21:37
22 Pius Suter C +0.65 0.00 +0.08 +0.51 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 16:48
25 Jordan Kyrou R +0.64 0.00 +0.33 +0.11 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:13
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +0.39 0.00 +0.31 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:40
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +0.38 +0.75 +0.27 -0.67 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 13:56
71 Mathieu Joseph R +0.30 0.00 +0.07 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:52
81 Dylan Holloway L +0.22 0.00 +0.13 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:25
55 Colton Parayko D +0.07 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 24:53
10 Brayden Schenn C 0.00 0.00 +0.11 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:36
6 Philip Broberg D -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 26:14
51 Matthew Kessel D -0.32 0.00 +0.04 -0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:23
75 Tyler Tucker D -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.26 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 12:15
89 Pavel Buchnevich L -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.41 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 17:19
50 Jordan Binnington G -1.24 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.24 64:06

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
60 Joseph Woll G +1.46 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.46 64:06
79 Sammy Blais L +0.96 +0.70 0.00 +0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:31
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.77 +0.55 +0.03 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 24:37
11 Max Domi C +0.76 0.00 +0.19 +0.21 +0.30 +0.03 +0.02 — 16:26
28 Troy Stecher D +0.64 0.00 +0.05 +0.44 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:31
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.59 +0.75 +0.08 -0.24 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 15:27
53 Easton Cowan R +0.36 0.00 +0.15 +0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:33
74 Bobby McMann C +0.29 0.00 +0.10 +0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:34
36 Dakota Mermis D +0.17 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 14:36
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.13 +0.70 +0.07 -0.80 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 24:13
22 Jake McCabe D +0.09 +0.75 +0.03 -0.55 -0.30 0.00 +0.15 — 21:06
63 Matias Maccelli L +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.23 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:15
26 Jacob Quillan C +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.15 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 — 9:00
88 William Nylander R -0.06 +0.75 +0.11 -0.89 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 21:19
81 Dakota Joshua C -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:08
91 John Tavares C -0.29 +0.55 +0.26 -1.03 0.00 +0.01 -0.08 — 23:43
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.48 0.00 +0.01 -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:18
89 Nick Robertson L -1.32 0.00 +0.01 -1.41 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 13:45
2 Simon Benoit D -1.57 0.00 +0.03 -1.66 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 21:04

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.