hockeystats.io

Carolina HurricanesCAR 4–3 Final Winnipeg JetsWPG

Friday, November 21, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 121 4 28
Winnipeg JetsWPG 201 3 28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:16 CAR Jordan Staal (6) Jordan Martinook (6) · snap xG 0.10 1–0 ▶
3:45 WPG Josh Morrissey (5) Mark Scheifele (17), Dylan DeMelo (8) · wrist xG 0.13 1–1 ▶
9:28 WPG Gabriel Vilardi (7)PP Cole Perfetti (2) · wrist xG 0.17 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
3:08 CAR Jordan Staal (7) Jalen Chatfield (4), K'Andre Miller (7) · tip-in xG 0.07 2–2 ▶
6:31 CAR Seth Jarvis (11)SH Sebastian Aho (12), K'Andre Miller (8) · wrist xG 0.48 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
3:19 CAR Andrei Svechnikov (7)PP Nikolaj Ehlers (10), Sebastian Aho (13) · slap xG 0.18 4–2 ▶
4:13 WPG Gabriel Vilardi (8) Kyle Connor (14) · wrist xG 0.08 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 57%Deserve to win43% WPG
CARWPG
2.95Expected goals2.17
4Goals (no shootout)3
0.83Expected goals, 5 on 51.89
65Shot attempts49
44Unblocked attempts40
28Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
11:03 CAR Deserve to win Deserve to win · CAR takes the lead, 60–40%
WPG had led since 3:55 of the 1st, by as much as 66%
11:10 CAR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced WPG 1.36–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 4:00 to 14:00 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
18:27 WPG Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Comrie, down 4–3
With 1:33 left
18:50 WPG No shift No shift · Schenn, 10:13 on the bench
No shift after 8:46 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (11:40) before that

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WPG shoots
Logan Stanley: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:51) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:49) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:56) Adam Lowry: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 3:55) Adam Lowry: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:56) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:51) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:42) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:45) Kyle Connor: slap, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 6:10) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:11) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:33) Seth Jarvis: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 7:14) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:34) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 8:38) Sean Walker: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:20) Adam Lowry: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:52) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:26) Dylan Samberg: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:39) Cole Koepke: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:54) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:15) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:06) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:10) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:09) Sean Walker: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:12) Neal Pionk: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:38) Cole Koepke: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:37) Mark Scheifele: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:10) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:03) Mark Scheifele: slap, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:17) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:24) Neal Pionk: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:36) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:58) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:48) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:57) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:25) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:46) Sean Walker: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:38) Sebastian Aho: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 6:28) Neal Pionk: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:22) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:21) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:41) Sebastian Aho: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:03) Nikolaj Ehlers: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:10) Nikolaj Ehlers: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 11:12) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:21) Joel Nystrom: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:54) Logan Stankoven: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:51) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:56) Dylan DeMelo: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:35) Gabriel Vilardi: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:46) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:12) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:22) Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:56) Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 2:38) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:28) Sean Walker: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:32) Dylan Samberg: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:26) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:23) K'Andre Miller: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:08) Mark Scheifele: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:53) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:46) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:57) Nino Niederreiter: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 11:59) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:37) Sean Walker: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:41) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:54) Mark Scheifele: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 13:23) Dylan Samberg: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:06) K'Andre Miller: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:15) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:47) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:08) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 76 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:36) Gabriel Vilardi: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:42) Mark Scheifele: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 18:12) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:59) Kyle Connor: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:07) Jordan Staal: wrist, 143 ft, xG 0.43 (P3 19:30) Jordan Staal: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:16) Josh Morrissey: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:45) Gabriel Vilardi: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 9:28) Jordan Staal: GOAL, tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:08) Seth Jarvis: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.48 (P2 6:31) Andrei Svechnikov: GOAL, slap, 25 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 3:19) Gabriel Vilardi: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:13)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
24 Seth Jarvis 101 +1 30.64 1020:18
20 Sebastian Aho 022 0 50.37 1119:48
37 Andrei Svechnikov 101 -1 90.34 0018:03
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 011 0 70.35 0017:36
53 Jackson Blake 000 -1 00.00 1015:40
11 Jordan Staal 202 +1 30.60 0015:30
48 Jordan Martinook 011 +1 40.16 2013:59
22 Logan Stankoven 000 0 40.25 0013:53
71 Taylor Hall 000 0 10.00 0112:07
28 William Carrier 000 +1 10.00 2011:32
50 Eric Robinson 000 0 00.00 2010:26
77 Mark Jankowski 000 0 00.00 1009:08
Defense
4 Shayne Gostisbehere 000 +1 60.09 0122:42
19 K'Andre Miller 022 0 70.04 0122:36
5 Jalen Chatfield 011 0 50.05 1021:34
26 Sean Walker 000 +1 70.05 1219:57
64 Joel Nystrom 000 0 10.01 0116:44
6 Mike Reilly 000 0 20.00 1213:04
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Brandon Bussi 28325 .893 2.17 -0.83

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Kyle Connor 011 +1 20.16 0021:28
55 Mark Scheifele 011 +1 80.55 2120:24
13 Gabriel Vilardi 202 0 60.39 0118:49
19 Jonathan Toews 000 -1 10.01 0017:17
14 Gustav Nyquist 000 0 10.00 1214:48
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 000 -1 10.00 2014:07
17 Adam Lowry 000 -1 30.31 3014:04
62 Nino Niederreiter 000 -1 40.28 0113:13
91 Cole Perfetti 011 -2 30.10 0113:06
9 Alex Iafallo 000 0 10.02 0211:05
36 Morgan Barron 000 0 10.00 2110:29
45 Cole Koepke 000 0 20.10 5008:42
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 101 +1 30.14 1426:18
4 Neal Pionk 000 -1 50.06 6224:32
54 Dylan Samberg 000 -1 50.04 1222:59
2 Dylan DeMelo 011 +2 20.01 3220:46
2 Luke Schenn 000 -1 00.00 2011:40
8 Logan Stanley 000 -1 10.01 1110:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Eric Comrie 28424 .857 2.52 -1.48

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Jordan Staal C +1.95 +1.50 +0.39 +0.04 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 15:30
20 Sebastian Aho C +0.87 +1.25 +0.24 -0.68 0.00 +0.03 +0.03 — 19:48
48 Jordan Martinook L +0.77 +0.70 +0.11 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 13:59
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +0.77 +0.70 +0.23 -0.13 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 17:36
24 Seth Jarvis C +0.76 +0.75 +0.42 -0.37 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 20:18
19 K'Andre Miller D +0.67 +1.10 +0.03 -0.36 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 22:36
5 Jalen Chatfield D +0.35 +0.70 +0.03 -0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:34
71 Taylor Hall L +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.09 +0.15 -0.01 +0.01 — 12:07
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +0.15 +0.75 +0.22 -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:03
26 Sean Walker D +0.01 0.00 +0.03 -0.28 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 19:57
77 Mark Jankowski L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:08
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D -0.03 0.00 +0.06 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:42
50 Eric Robinson L -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.02 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 10:26
28 William Carrier L -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:32
6 Mike Reilly D -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.61 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 13:04
22 Logan Stankoven C -0.55 0.00 +0.16 -0.51 -0.15 -0.03 -0.02 — 13:53
64 Joel Nystrom D -0.58 0.00 +0.01 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:44
53 Jackson Blake R -0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:40
32 Brandon Bussi G -0.83 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.83 60:00

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +2.56 +1.50 +0.25 +0.77 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 18:49
44 Josh Morrissey D +2.41 +0.75 +0.09 +1.37 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 26:18
55 Mark Scheifele C +2.19 +0.70 +0.36 +1.14 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 20:24
81 Kyle Connor L +1.77 +0.70 +0.10 +0.98 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:28
2 Dylan DeMelo D +1.74 +0.55 +0.01 +1.08 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:46
62 Nino Niederreiter R +0.72 0.00 +0.18 +0.39 +0.15 -0.01 +0.01 — 13:13
91 Cole Perfetti C +0.65 +0.70 +0.07 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 13:06
54 Dylan Samberg D +0.60 0.00 +0.02 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:59
9 Alex Iafallo L +0.43 0.00 +0.01 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:05
17 Adam Lowry C +0.37 0.00 +0.20 +0.12 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 14:04
14 Gustav Nyquist R +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:48
19 Jonathan Toews C +0.16 0.00 +0.01 +0.14 0.00 +0.05 -0.04 — 17:17
4 Neal Pionk D +0.15 0.00 +0.04 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 24:32
45 Cole Koepke L +0.08 0.00 +0.06 +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:42
36 Morgan Barron C -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.18 0.00 -0.05 +0.05 — 10:29
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:07
5 Luke Schenn D -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 11:40
64 Logan Stanley D -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.37 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 10:36
1 Eric Comrie G -1.48 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.48 58:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.