hockeystats.io

Carolina HurricanesCAR 1–4 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 100 1 30
Buffalo SabresBUF 121 4 21

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:51 BUF Alex Tuch (8)PP Ryan McLeod (7), Josh Doan (8) · wrist xG 0.17 0–1 ▶
14:36 CAR Shayne Gostisbehere (2)PP Unassisted · wrist xG 0.16 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:55 BUF Jack Quinn (5) Ryan McLeod (8), Jason Zucker (6) · tip-in xG 0.10 1–2 ▶
18:36 BUF Beck Malenstyn (2) Tyson Kozak (2), Peyton Krebs (6) · wrist xG 0.17 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
19:38 BUF Tage Thompson (12)EN Zach Benson (9) · wrist xG 0.92 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 64%Deserve to win36% BUF
CARBUF
3.95Expected goals4.37
1Goals (no shootout)4
2.41Expected goals, 5 on 52.29
78Shot attempts47
56Unblocked attempts37
30Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
8:10 CAR No shift No shift · Reilly, 19:15 on the bench
No shift after 18:07 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (4:21) before that
10:08 BUF Goalie Goalie · Luukkonen +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.02 xG, 26 shots on goal
10:10 CAR Deserve to win Deserve to win · CAR takes the lead, 64–36%
BUF had led since 5:51 of the 1st, by as much as 70%
10:10 CAR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.11–0.07
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:10 to 10:10 of the 3rd; neither team scored
17:02 CAR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Andersen, down 3–1
With 2:58 left; BUF scored at 19:38 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Logan Stankoven: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:38) K'Andre Miller: backhand, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:47) Jason Zucker: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 1:05) Eric Robinson: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 3:12) Jack Quinn: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:55) Conor Timmins: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:00) Jack Quinn: wrist, 103 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:34) Tage Thompson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:02) Owen Power: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 5:44) Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:07) Tage Thompson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:17) Jack Quinn: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:55) Jack Quinn: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:18) Owen Power: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:13) Tage Thompson: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 12:23) Seth Jarvis: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 14:32) Eric Robinson: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:23) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:59) Conor Timmins: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:09) Zach Benson: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 16:59) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:33) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:37) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:07) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:20) Eric Robinson: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:28) K'Andre Miller: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:32) Tyson Kozak: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 1:44) Mike Reilly: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:59) Mike Reilly: snap, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:05) Jack Quinn: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 3:32) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:33) Jason Zucker: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 3:44) Sean Walker: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:02) Sean Walker: slap, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:04) Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:07) Sebastian Aho: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:40) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:43) Jackson Blake: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:46) Taylor Hall: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.34 (P2 6:48) Seth Jarvis: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:21) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 8:23) Noah Ostlund: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 8:49) Alex Tuch: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 10:12) Eric Robinson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:31) Eric Robinson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:44) Jack Quinn: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 11:03) Beck Malenstyn: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:38) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:11) Sean Walker: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:39) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:41) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:36) Bowen Byram: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 15:46) William Carrier: wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:52) Tage Thompson: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:18) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:52) Jackson Blake: deflected, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 18:58) Taylor Hall: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:58) Josh Dunne: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:47) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:58) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:07) Jason Zucker: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:51) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 4:26) Taylor Hall: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:14) Eric Robinson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:49) William Carrier: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:29) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:49) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:14) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:41) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:53) Sean Walker: bat, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:54) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 9:00) Seth Jarvis: bat, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:35) William Carrier: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 10:08) Jackson Blake: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 10:10) Jack Quinn: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 10:54) Josh Doan: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:36) Jack Quinn: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:55) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:21) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:25) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:45) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 15:32) Zach Benson: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:49) Jack Quinn: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 16:19) Seth Jarvis: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:40) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 160 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 18:50) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 19:20) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 19:22) Mark Jankowski: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:55) Alex Tuch: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 5:51) Shayne Gostisbehere: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 14:36) Jack Quinn: GOAL, tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:55) Beck Malenstyn: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 18:36) Tage Thompson: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.92 (P3 19:38)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
24 Seth Jarvis 000 -2 60.53 4023:09
20 Sebastian Aho 000 -2 60.12 2021:03
37 Andrei Svechnikov 000 -2 100.59 0119:35
22 Logan Stankoven 000 -1 70.43 1017:32
53 Jackson Blake 000 -2 40.49 0017:14
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 000 -2 20.13 0016:33
77 Mark Jankowski 000 0 10.01 0315:23
50 Eric Robinson 000 0 60.33 1013:45
71 Taylor Hall 000 0 30.39 0013:13
48 Jordan Martinook 000 0 40.18 2112:45
28 William Carrier 000 0 30.19 0008:54
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 000 0 50.12 3023:18
26 Sean Walker 000 -2 70.17 1120:11
4 Shayne Gostisbehere 101 -3 70.25 2020:10
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 0 30.00 1119:13
64 Joel Nystrom 000 0 10.00 0014:49
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 0 10.00 1113:59
6 Mike Reilly 000 0 20.02 0104:21
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Frederik Andersen 20317 .850 3.05 +0.05

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Jack Quinn 101 +1 110.91 0120:39
72 Tage Thompson 101 +1 51.32 0018:32
17 Jason Zucker 011 +1 40.30 2117:23
6 Zach Benson 011 +1 20.20 0116:56
71 Ryan McLeod 022 +2 20.06 1216:14
89 Alex Tuch 101 0 30.34 5115:26
91 Josh Doan 011 0 10.05 3014:55
48 Tyson Kozak 011 +1 10.13 5314:04
86 Noah Ostlund 000 0 20.14 0012:49
29 Beck Malenstyn 101 +1 30.20 2211:54
19 Peyton Krebs 011 +1 10.00 3010:24
44 Josh Dunne 000 0 20.05 0007:20
Defense
23 Mattias Samuelsson 000 +2 00.00 3423:44
21 Conor Timmins 000 +1 20.03 1322:04
26 Rasmus Dahlin 000 +1 30.41 1021:34
24 Bowen Byram 000 +1 10.08 0018:48
25 Owen Power 000 +1 30.14 1218:31
78 Jacob Bryson 000 0 10.00 0111:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 30129 .967 3.95 +2.95

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
5 Jalen Chatfield D +0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.70 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:13
53 Jackson Blake R +0.65 0.00 +0.32 +0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:14
28 William Carrier L +0.56 0.00 +0.13 +0.60 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 8:54
19 K'Andre Miller D +0.52 0.00 +0.08 +0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:18
48 Jordan Martinook L +0.44 0.00 +0.12 +0.28 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 12:45
24 Seth Jarvis C +0.41 0.00 +0.34 -0.11 +0.15 +0.01 +0.02 — 23:09
6 Mike Reilly D +0.41 0.00 +0.01 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 4:21
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +0.32 0.00 +0.38 -0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 19:35
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D +0.17 +0.75 +0.16 -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:10
77 Mark Jankowski L +0.13 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 0.00 +0.03 +0.15 — 15:23
31 Frederik Andersen G +0.05 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.05 57:24
20 Sebastian Aho C -0.04 0.00 +0.08 +0.17 -0.30 +0.05 -0.04 — 21:03
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L -0.07 0.00 +0.08 -0.14 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:33
26 Sean Walker D -0.23 0.00 +0.11 -0.52 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 20:11
64 Joel Nystrom D -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:49
50 Eric Robinson L -0.24 0.00 +0.21 -0.41 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 13:45
71 Taylor Hall L -0.28 0.00 +0.25 -0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:13
22 Logan Stankoven C -0.29 0.00 +0.28 -0.55 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 17:32
21 Alexander Nikishin D -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.39 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 13:59

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G +2.95 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.95 60:00
71 Ryan McLeod C +1.84 +1.40 +0.04 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 16:14
22 Jack Quinn R +1.84 +0.75 +0.59 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:39
29 Beck Malenstyn L +1.26 +0.75 +0.13 +0.15 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 11:54
48 Tyson Kozak C +1.26 +0.70 +0.08 +0.37 0.00 -0.03 +0.13 — 14:04
17 Jason Zucker L +1.21 +0.55 +0.19 +0.48 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 17:23
6 Zach Benson L +0.97 +0.70 +0.13 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:56
72 Tage Thompson C +0.93 +0.75 +0.86 -0.65 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 18:32
4 Bowen Byram D +0.87 0.00 +0.05 +0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:48
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.71 +0.55 0.00 +0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:24
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 23:44
89 Alex Tuch R +0.40 +0.75 +0.22 -0.50 -0.15 +0.03 +0.05 — 15:26
86 Noah Ostlund C +0.38 0.00 +0.09 +0.32 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 12:49
21 Conor Timmins D +0.33 0.00 +0.02 -0.08 +0.30 0.00 +0.09 — 22:04
91 Josh Doan R 0.00 +0.55 +0.03 -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:55
78 Jacob Bryson D 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:02
26 Rasmus Dahlin D -0.23 0.00 +0.27 -0.33 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 21:34
44 Josh Dunne C -0.25 0.00 +0.03 -0.14 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 7:20
25 Owen Power D -0.25 0.00 +0.09 -0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:31

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.