Dallas StarsDAL 8–3 Final Edmonton OilersEDM

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Dallas StarsDAL	4	2	2	8	30
Edmonton OilersEDM	0	1	2	3	25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:48	DAL	Jamie Benn (1) Wyatt Johnston (11), Sam Steel (6) · wrist xG 0.25	1–0 ▶
10:51	DAL	Roope Hintz (6)PP Miro Heiskanen (17), Jason Robertson (16) · snap xG 0.32	2–0 ▶
15:24	DAL	Nathan Bastian (2) Radek Faksa (8), Colin Blackwell (4) · wrist xG 0.13	3–0 ▶
18:46	DAL	Sam Steel (3) Jamie Benn (2), Wyatt Johnston (12) · wrist xG 0.73	4–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:39	EDM	Connor Clattenburg (1) Ty Emberson (3), Mattias Janmark (3) · wrist xG 0.04	4–1 ▶
14:01	DAL	Jason Robertson (14)PP Tyler Seguin (7), Wyatt Johnston (13) · deflected xG 0.45	5–1 ▶
15:36	DAL	Wyatt Johnston (12)PP Jason Robertson (17), Tyler Seguin (8) · backhand xG 0.29	6–1 ▶
3rd Period
1:23	EDM	Evan Bouchard (4) Vasily Podkolzin (6), Leon Draisaitl (15) · slap xG 0.04	6–2 ▶
8:21	DAL	Justin Hryckowian (3) Mavrik Bourque (5), Vladislav Kolyachonok (1) · wrist xG 0.41	7–2 ▶
9:31	EDM	Jack Roslovic (10) Connor McDavid (24), Matt Savoie (4) · snap xG 0.11	7–3 ▶
15:39	DAL	Nathan Bastian (3) Radek Faksa (9) · wrist xG 0.36	8–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 95%Deserve to win5% EDM

DAL		EDM
5.37	Expected goals	1.59
8	Goals (no shootout)	3
3.48	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.43
56	Shot attempts	51
41	Unblocked attempts	37
30	Shots on goal	25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
18:50	DAL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced EDM 1.57–0.13 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:50 to 18:50 of the 1st; goals 3–0
20:00	EDM	Goalie change	Goalie change · Pickard in for Skinner The start of the 2nd; Skinner had allowed 4 goals on 8 shots (2.06 xG)
2nd Period
15:40	DAL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced EDM 1.67–0.05 In xG over 10 minutes, 11:50 of the 2nd to 1:50 of the 3rd; goals 2–1
3rd Period
9:30	EDM	No shift	No shift · Frederic, 21:08 on the bench No shift after 15:51 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (5:25) before that

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ EDM shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
53	Wyatt Johnston	1	3	4	+1	4	0.81	0	0	17:59
91	Tyler Seguin	0	2	2	-1	1	0.00	2	0	17:06
21	Jason Robertson	1	2	3	-1	9	0.80	0	0	16:57
24	Roope Hintz	1	0	1	+1	1	0.32	0	2	16:25
22	Mavrik Bourque	0	1	1	+1	4	0.19	0	0	16:10
18	Sam Steel	1	1	2	+1	3	0.80	0	1	15:23
12	Radek Faksa	0	2	2	+1	6	0.39	2	1	14:07
10	Oskar Bäck	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	0	1	13:56
11	Nathan Bastian	2	0	2	+1	3	0.49	3	0	13:17
49	Justin Hryckowian	1	0	1	-1	4	0.46	0	0	13:11
15	Colin Blackwell	0	1	1	+2	3	0.04	3	1	12:55
14	Jamie Benn	1	1	2	+1	5	0.59	2	1	12:22
Defense
4	Miro Heiskanen	0	1	1	+1	4	0.22	0	0	23:08
23	Esa Lindell	0	0	0	+3	1	0.00	0	1	23:04
36	Alexander Petrovic	0	0	0	+1	4	0.11	0	4	22:12
6	Lian Bichsel	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	19:44
20	Kyle Capobianco	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	1	15:37
18	Vladislav Kolyachonok	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	0	12:23

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jake Oettinger	25	3	22	.880	1.59	-1.41

Edmonton Oilers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
97	Connor McDavid	0	1	1	-1	2	0.19	1	0	19:28
29	Leon Draisaitl	0	1	1	-2	4	0.05	1	1	18:49
22	Matt Savoie	0	1	1	0	4	0.13	0	0	17:37
18	Zach Hyman	0	0	0	0	3	0.17	2	0	17:16
13	Mattias Janmark	0	1	1	0	5	0.02	1	0	17:06
92	Vasily Podkolzin	0	1	1	-1	2	0.10	1	0	15:51
19	Adam Henrique	0	0	0	-1	4	0.17	1	2	13:59
96	Jack Roslovic	1	0	1	-1	3	0.31	1	1	11:09
26	Andrew Mangiapane	0	0	0	-2	3	0.15	1	0	08:29
10	Trent Frederic	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	05:25
Defense
2	Evan Bouchard	1	0	1	-1	4	0.08	0	1	22:27
25	Darnell Nurse	0	0	0	-2	5	0.03	1	2	22:23
75	Alec Regula	0	0	0	-2	3	0.01	0	0	21:47
14	Mattias Ekholm	0	0	0	-1	5	0.04	0	0	19:03
49	Ty Emberson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	1	0	16:35
27	Brett Kulak	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	1	16:15

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Stuart Skinner	8	4	4	.500	2.06	-1.94
Calvin Pickard	22	4	18	.818	3.31	-0.69

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
53 Wyatt Johnston C	+4.39	+2.55	+0.53	+1.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:59
18 Sam Steel C	+3.28	+1.30	+0.52	+1.31	+0.15	-0.01	+0.01	—	15:23
14 Jamie Benn L	+3.00	+1.45	+0.38	+1.16	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	12:22
11 Nathan Bastian R	+2.56	+1.50	+0.32	+0.89	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:17
12 Radek Faksa C	+2.44	+1.40	+0.25	+0.75	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	14:07
4 Miro Heiskanen D	+2.34	+0.70	+0.14	+1.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	23:08
23 Esa Lindell D	+2.28	0.00	0.00	+2.25	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	23:04
21 Jason Robertson L	+2.20	+2.00	+0.52	-0.30	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:57
22 Mavrik Bourque C	+1.85	+0.70	+0.13	+0.70	+0.30	+0.02	0.00	—	16:10
49 Justin Hryckowian C	+1.57	+0.75	+0.30	+0.34	+0.15	+0.03	0.00	—	13:11
15 Colin Blackwell C	+1.55	+0.55	+0.02	+0.94	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	12:55
28 Alexander Petrovic D	+1.36	0.00	+0.07	+1.11	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	22:12
24 Roope Hintz C	+1.26	+0.75	+0.21	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	+0.08	—	16:25
91 Tyler Seguin C	+1.05	+1.25	0.00	-0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:06
10 Oskar Bäck C	+0.71	0.00	+0.09	+0.61	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	13:56
44 Vladislav Kolyachonok D	+0.58	+0.55	0.00	+0.18	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	12:23
6 Lian Bichsel D	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.09	—	19:44
20 Kyle Capobianco D	-0.04	0.00	+0.01	-0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:37
29 Jake Oettinger G	-1.41	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.41	59:43

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
64 Connor Clattenburg C	+0.89	+0.75	+0.03	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:58
49 Ty Emberson D	+0.64	+0.70	+0.01	+0.10	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	16:35
13 Mattias Janmark C	+0.42	+0.55	+0.01	-0.11	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	—	17:06
27 Brett Kulak D	+0.17	0.00	0.00	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	16:15
22 Matt Savoie C	+0.10	+0.55	+0.09	-0.50	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	17:37
10 Trent Frederic C	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.10	0.00	+0.01	+0.09	—	5:25
86 David Tomasek R	-0.06	0.00	+0.06	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	+0.03	—	15:35
97 Connor McDavid C	-0.14	+0.70	+0.12	-0.90	0.00	-0.05	-0.02	—	19:28
2 Evan Bouchard D	-0.18	+0.75	+0.05	-1.05	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	22:27
28 Jack Roslovic C	-0.23	+0.75	+0.20	-1.18	0.00	-0.01	+0.01	—	11:09
92 Vasily Podkolzin R	-0.33	+0.70	+0.06	-1.05	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	15:51
19 Adam Henrique C	-0.37	0.00	+0.11	-0.41	-0.15	-0.01	+0.10	—	13:59
30 Calvin Pickard G	-0.69	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.69	40:00
18 Zach Hyman L	-0.74	0.00	+0.11	-0.70	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:16
88 Andrew Mangiapane L	-0.97	0.00	+0.10	-1.05	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	8:29
29 Leon Draisaitl C	-0.98	+0.55	+0.03	-1.61	0.00	+0.03	+0.01	—	18:49
14 Mattias Ekholm D	-1.05	0.00	+0.03	-1.05	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:03
25 Darnell Nurse D	-1.38	0.00	+0.02	-1.61	+0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	22:23
75 Alec Regula D	-1.66	0.00	+0.01	-1.60	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	21:47
74 Stuart Skinner G	-1.94	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.94	19:46

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.