Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
BUF 75%Deserve to win25% PIT
BUF
PIT
2.95
Expected goals
2.50
2
Goals (no shootout)
4
2.63
Expected goals, 5 on 5
1.41
60
Shot attempts
46
49
Unblocked attempts
30
31
Shots on goal
19
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
3rd Period
0:50
BUF
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 1.30–0.01
In xG over 10 minutes, 13:40 of the 2nd to 3:40 of the 3rd; neither team scored
1:25
BUF
Deserve to win
Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 61–39%
PIT had led since 9:00 of the 2nd, by as much as 70%
18:25
BUF
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Luukkonen, down 3–2
With 1:35 left; PIT scored at 19:02 of the 3rd (2–4)
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.
