| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 31 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | Zachary Bolduc (6) Juraj Slafkovský (5), Cole Caufield (11) · wrist xG 0.18 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 2:04 | Cole Caufield (14) Zachary Bolduc (6), Alexandre Carrier (7) · snap xG 0.06 | 2–0 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 3:36 | Jake Evans (4) Alexandre Texier (2), Mike Matheson (11) · wrist xG 0.22 | 3–0 ▶ | |
| 15:16 | Mark Stone (4) Mitch Marner (19), Ben Hutton (4) · wrist xG 0.19 | 3–1 ▶ | |
| 18:03 | Juraj Slafkovský (7)EN Nick Suzuki (20) · wrist xG 0.90 | 4–1 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| MTL | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.78 | Expected goals | 3.38 |
| 4 | Goals (no shootout) | 1 |
| 1.95 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.38 |
| 41 | Shot attempts | 75 |
| 33 | Unblocked attempts | 50 |
| 19 | Shots on goal | 31 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | VGK | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced MTL 1.09–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:50 to 11:50 of the 1st; neither team scored |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 12:39 | MTL | Goalie | Goalie · Montembeault +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.03 xG, 20 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 16:51 | VGK | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Schmid, down 3–1
With 3:09 left; MTL scored at 18:03 of the 3rd (4–1) |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 0.81 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 0.48 | 0 | 1 | 17:04 |
| 71 | Jake Evans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.41 | 2 | 2 | 17:03 |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 2 | 15:55 |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovský | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 0.90 | 2 | 0 | 15:28 |
| 76 | Zachary Bolduc | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 |
| 7 | Brendan Gallagher | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 1 | 13:56 |
| 85 | Alexandre Texier | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 13:41 |
| 91 | Oliver Kapanen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 1 | 13:23 |
| 90 | Joseph Veleno | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.03 | 5 | 0 | 12:52 |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0 | 1 | 12:07 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 48 | Lane Hutson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 2 | 25:13 |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.05 | 2 | 6 | 25:01 |
| 8 | Mike Matheson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.04 | 1 | 3 | 23:54 |
| 3 | Jayden Struble | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | 2 | 1 | 17:09 |
| 45 | Alexandre Carrier | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 2 | 16:59 |
| 72 | Arber Xhekaj | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | 1 | 1 | 11:15 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault | 31 | 1 | 30 | .968 | 3.38 | +2.38 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 9 | Jack Eichel | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 9 | 0.24 | 1 | 0 | 20:00 |
| 61 | Mark Stone | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 |
| 42 | Braeden Bowman | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 |
| 49 | Ivan Barbashev | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.17 | 1 | 1 | 17:11 |
| 93 | Mitch Marner | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 16:24 |
| 48 | Tomas Hertl | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 14 | 1.02 | 4 | 0 | 16:01 |
| 21 | Brett Howden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 0 | 15:09 |
| 16 | Pavel Dorofeyev | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 0.29 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 |
| 15 | Colton Sissons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.30 | 1 | 0 | 12:30 |
| 20 | Brandon Saad | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 1 | 11:43 |
| 19 | Reilly Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 |
| 55 | Keegan Kolesar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 27 | Shea Theodore | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 5 | 0.05 | 0 | 2 | 24:38 |
| 15 | Noah Hanifin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 1 | 23:54 |
| 3 | Brayden McNabb | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 0.03 | 1 | 0 | 18:50 |
| 6 | Kaedan Korczak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 17:16 |
| 28 | Zach Whitecloud | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.01 | 3 | 0 | 16:00 |
| 17 | Ben Hutton | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 14:31 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid | 18 | 3 | 15 | .833 | 2.44 | -0.56 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Cole Caufield R | +2.40 | +1.30 | +0.31 | +0.71 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.09 | — | 17:04 |
| 35 Samuel Montembeault G | +2.38 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +2.38 | 59:28 |
| 14 Nick Suzuki C | +2.16 | +0.70 | +0.53 | +0.87 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | — | 19:29 |
| 76 Zachary Bolduc R | +1.93 | +1.45 | +0.17 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 15:01 |
| 20 Juraj Slafkovský L | +1.90 | +1.45 | +0.59 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | — | 15:28 |
| 45 Alexandre Carrier D | +0.67 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 16:59 |
| 47 Jayden Struble D | +0.65 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 17:09 |
| 71 Jake Evans C | +0.58 | +0.75 | +0.27 | -0.51 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.10 | — | 17:03 |
| 48 Lane Hutson D | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 25:13 |
| 11 Brendan Gallagher R | +0.10 | 0.00 | +0.13 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 13:56 |
| 93 Ivan Demidov R | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 12:07 |
| 72 Arber Xhekaj D | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 11:15 |
| 85 Alexandre Texier L | +0.02 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.68 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:41 |
| 63 Florian Xhekaj L | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 11:02 |
| 91 Oliver Kapanen C | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.24 | -0.34 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.05 | — | 13:23 |
| 8 Mike Matheson D | -0.15 | +0.55 | +0.03 | -0.70 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 23:54 |
| 17 Josh Anderson R | -0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 15:55 |
| 90 Joseph Veleno C | -0.38 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.37 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 12:52 |
| 53 Noah Dobson D | -0.75 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.26 | — | 25:01 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 Mark Stone R | +1.51 | +0.75 | +0.22 | +0.57 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.04 | — | 17:46 |
| 93 Mitch Marner R | +1.20 | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 16:24 |
| 48 Tomas Hertl C | +1.06 | 0.00 | +0.67 | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.02 | — | 16:01 |
| 17 Ben Hutton D | +1.02 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.53 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.09 | — | 14:31 |
| 15 Noah Hanifin D | +0.65 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 23:54 |
| 21 Brett Howden C | +0.57 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.43 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.02 | — | 15:09 |
| 20 Brandon Saad L | +0.56 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 11:43 |
| 10 Colton Sissons C | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.17 | 0.00 | +0.04 | 0.00 | — | 12:30 |
| 27 Shea Theodore D | +0.39 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.15 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 24:38 |
| 6 Kaedan Korczak D | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 17:16 |
| 16 Pavel Dorofeyev R | +0.21 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:08 |
| 19 Reilly Smith R | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:24 |
| 55 Keegan Kolesar R | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:07 |
| 2 Zach Whitecloud D | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:00 |
| 42 Braeden Bowman R | -0.19 | 0.00 | +0.17 | -0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 17:40 |
| 9 Jack Eichel C | -0.53 | 0.00 | +0.16 | -0.66 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 20:00 |
| 40 Akira Schmid G | -0.56 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.56 | 58:48 |
| 49 Ivan Barbashev L | -0.60 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:11 |
| 3 Brayden McNabb D | -0.80 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:50 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.