| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 34 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 24 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 4:28 | Brock Boeser (9) Conor Garland (9), Tom Willander (6) · wrist xG 0.05 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 9:25 | Will Smith (8)PP Alexander Wennberg (8), Macklin Celebrini (21) · wrist xG 0.11 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 3:04 | Elias Pettersson (8) Evander Kane (9), Filip Hronek (14) · wrist xG 0.07 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 14:03 | William Eklund (6)PP Macklin Celebrini (22), John Klingberg (4) · slap xG 0.17 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 15:17 | Adam Gaudette (6) Philipp Kurashev (7), Tyler Toffoli (8) · backhand xG 0.22 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| No scoring | |||
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| VAN | SJS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.24 | Expected goals | 2.56 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 3 |
| 2.02 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.34 |
| 65 | Shot attempts | 43 |
| 47 | Unblocked attempts | 34 |
| 34 | Shots on goal | 24 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:23 | VAN | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · VAN takes the lead, 60–40%
SJS had led since 12:49 of the 1st, by as much as 62% |
| 10:00 | VAN | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 1.62–0.14
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:40 to 10:40 of the 2nd; goals 1–0 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 15:49 | SJS | Goalie | Goalie · Askarov +2.0 goals saved
2 goals on 4.01 xG, 30 shots on goal |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 83 | Conor Garland | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 24:28 |
| 6 | Brock Boeser | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 10 | 0.72 | 1 | 0 | 21:19 |
| 40 | Elias Pettersson | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 0.72 | 1 | 1 | 20:12 |
| 74 | Jake DeBrusk | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 0.83 | 1 | 0 | 19:41 |
| 44 | Kiefer Sherwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 8 | 0.66 | 4 | 1 | 17:57 |
| 64 | David Kampf | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 1 | 14:30 |
| 91 | Evander Kane | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.07 | 2 | 0 | 14:09 |
| 18 | Drew O'Connor | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 |
| 63 | Max Sasson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0 | 1 | 11:39 |
| 94 | Linus Karlsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 08:43 |
| 13 | Arshdeep Bains | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 05:58 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 43 | Quinn Hughes | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 11 | 0.22 | 0 | 2 | 28:19 |
| 17 | Filip Hronek | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 24:13 |
| 26 | Marcus Pettersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 |
| 57 | Tyler Myers | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.07 | 2 | 1 | 16:44 |
| 5 | Tom Willander | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 |
| 25 | Elias Pettersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 5 | 1 | 11:18 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Tolopilo | 24 | 3 | 21 | .875 | 2.56 | -0.44 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 21 | Alexander Wennberg | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0 | 21:54 |
| 10 | Ty Dellandrea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.16 | 4 | 2 | 20:03 |
| 71 | Macklin Celebrini | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 |
| 2 | Will Smith | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 0.63 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 |
| 51 | Collin Graf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 2 | 3 | 17:08 |
| 27 | William Eklund | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 |
| 96 | Philipp Kurashev | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 13:03 |
| 81 | Adam Gaudette | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 |
| 73 | Tyler Toffoli | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 |
| 23 | Barclay Goodrow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 0 | 08:42 |
| 75 | Ryan Reaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 06:15 |
| 63 | Zack Ostapchuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 05:38 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 38 | Mario Ferraro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 27:36 |
| 9 | Dmitry Orlov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 |
| 27 | Timothy Liljegren | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.01 | 1 | 4 | 19:24 |
| 3 | John Klingberg | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 18:43 |
| 6 | Vincent Iorio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 4 | 15:13 |
| 6 | Sam Dickinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.04 | 2 | 0 | 14:12 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov | 34 | 2 | 32 | .941 | 4.24 | +2.24 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Conor Garland R | +2.55 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +1.20 | +0.45 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 24:28 |
| 6 Brock Boeser R | +1.95 | +0.75 | +0.47 | +0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 21:19 |
| 5 Tom Willander D | +1.55 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.85 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:52 |
| 91 Evander Kane L | +1.41 | +0.70 | +0.05 | +0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:09 |
| 17 Filip Hronek D | +1.26 | +0.55 | +0.05 | +0.46 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 24:13 |
| 40 Elias Pettersson C | +1.11 | +0.75 | +0.47 | -0.05 | -0.08 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 20:12 |
| 74 Jake DeBrusk L | +1.04 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.51 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 19:41 |
| 43 Quinn Hughes D | +1.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +1.07 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 28:19 |
| 64 David Kampf C | +0.80 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.78 | 0.00 | -0.07 | -0.01 | — | 14:30 |
| 44 Kiefer Sherwood L | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.43 | -0.18 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 17:57 |
| 94 Linus Karlsson C | +0.18 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:43 |
| 73 Lukas Reichel L | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 4:59 |
| 63 Max Sasson C | -0.02 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.07 | 0.00 | -0.05 | +0.05 | — | 11:39 |
| 18 Drew O'Connor L | -0.08 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.27 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:17 |
| 25 Elias Pettersson D | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 11:18 |
| 29 Marcus Pettersson D | -0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:31 |
| 13 Arshdeep Bains L | -0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.28 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 5:58 |
| 60 Nikita Tolopilo G | -0.44 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.44 | 58:11 |
| 57 Tyler Myers D | -0.76 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:44 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Yaroslav Askarov G | +2.24 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +2.24 | 59:42 |
| 3 John Klingberg D | +1.70 | +0.55 | +0.04 | +0.78 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 18:43 |
| 81 Adam Gaudette R | +1.28 | +0.75 | +0.24 | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 12:35 |
| 73 Tyler Toffoli C | +1.20 | +0.55 | +0.22 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 11:09 |
| 71 Macklin Celebrini C | +1.09 | +1.25 | +0.26 | -0.24 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 18:30 |
| 21 Alexander Wennberg C | +0.71 | +0.70 | +0.09 | -0.17 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.02 | — | 21:54 |
| 2 Will Smith C | +0.71 | +0.75 | +0.41 | -0.29 | -0.15 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 18:24 |
| 96 Philipp Kurashev C | +0.60 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.10 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.02 | — | 13:03 |
| 72 William Eklund L | +0.47 | +0.75 | +0.12 | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 16:26 |
| 9 Dmitry Orlov D | +0.13 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.28 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 19:57 |
| 6 Sam Dickinson D | -0.19 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 14:12 |
| 23 Barclay Goodrow C | -0.22 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.39 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:42 |
| 51 Collin Graf R | -0.29 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 17:08 |
| 63 Zack Ostapchuk C | -0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.39 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.07 | — | 5:38 |
| 10 Ty Dellandrea C | -0.38 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.48 | -0.08 | +0.01 | +0.06 | — | 20:03 |
| 75 Ryan Reaves R | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:15 |
| 38 Mario Ferraro D | -0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 27:36 |
| 22 Vincent Iorio D | -1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.05 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 15:13 |
| 37 Timothy Liljegren D | -1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.18 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.18 | — | 19:24 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.