hockeystats.io

Winnipeg JetsWPG 1–5 Final Carolina HurricanesCAR

Friday, November 28, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 010 1 13
Carolina HurricanesCAR 104 5 35

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
16:06 CAR Seth Jarvis (13) Shayne Gostisbehere (14), Sebastian Aho (16) · snap xG 0.15 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
10:41 WPG Mark Scheifele (13) Gabriel Vilardi (9) · wrist xG 0.17 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
11:52 CAR Jordan Martinook (3) Mark Jankowski (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (15) · snap xG 0.09 1–2 ▶
12:39 CAR Seth Jarvis (14) K'Andre Miller (9), Andrei Svechnikov (6) · snap xG 0.16 1–3 ▶
18:57 CAR Seth Jarvis (15)EN Andrei Svechnikov (7) · backhand xG 0.45 1–4 ▶
19:37 CAR Alexander Nikishin (3) Justin Robidas (1), Eric Robinson (2) · slap xG 0.02 1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 26%Deserve to win74% CAR
WPGCAR
1.66Expected goals3.42
1Goals (no shootout)5
1.35Expected goals, 5 on 52.57
40Shot attempts71
24Unblocked attempts51
13Shots on goal35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:35 WPG Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Milic, down 3–1
With 2:25 left; CAR scored at 18:57 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots
K'Andre Miller: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:11) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:31) Mark Jankowski: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 1:33) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 1:38) Jordan Martinook: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.47 (P1 1:41) Cole Perfetti: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:04) Kyle Connor: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 4:22) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:07) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:13) K'Andre Miller: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:26) Mark Jankowski: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:49) Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:54) William Carrier: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:27) Dylan DeMelo: snap, 116 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:29) Andrei Svechnikov: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 9:13) Jackson Blake: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:53) K'Andre Miller: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 10:11) Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:58) Dylan DeMelo: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:02) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:07) Cole Perfetti: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:09) Nino Niederreiter: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:22) Cole Perfetti: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 16:47) William Carrier: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:32) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 172 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:33) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:58) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:32) Colin Miller: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:30) Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 6:16) Morgan Barron: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:23) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:38) Logan Stankoven: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:11) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:55) Joel Nystrom: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:13) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:20) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 13:05) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 168 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:06) Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 147 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:22) Logan Stankoven: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:04) Mark Scheifele: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:02) Justin Robidas: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:00) Adam Lowry: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 0:49) Sean Walker: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:10) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:16) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 1:42) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 2:09) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:15) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:31) Seth Jarvis: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:36) Kyle Connor: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 5:49) Alexander Nikishin: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:25) K'Andre Miller: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:44) Nikolaj Ehlers: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:31) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:44) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:58) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:34) Dylan DeMelo: wrist, 100 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:59) Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:33) Dylan Samberg: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:49) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:25) Cole Perfetti: deflected, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:47) Jonathan Toews: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:04) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:54) Joel Nystrom: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:23) Seth Jarvis: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:36) Seth Jarvis: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 16:53) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:41) Eric Robinson: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:32) Eric Robinson: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:51) Seth Jarvis: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 16:06) Mark Scheifele: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 10:41) Jordan Martinook: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:52) Seth Jarvis: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 12:39) Seth Jarvis: GOAL, backhand, 45 ft, xG 0.45 (P3 18:57) Alexander Nikishin: GOAL, slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:37)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Kyle Connor 000 -1 40.33 0021:31
55 Mark Scheifele 101 -1 30.22 2021:00
13 Gabriel Vilardi 011 -1 00.00 0018:05
62 Nino Niederreiter 000 -2 30.08 2215:38
9 Alex Iafallo 000 -2 00.00 2014:46
91 Cole Perfetti 000 -1 70.55 0013:15
17 Adam Lowry 000 -1 10.09 2113:10
7 Vladislav Namestnikov 000 0 20.00 2012:40
19 Jonathan Toews 000 -1 30.12 0012:38
70 Tanner Pearson 000 0 20.05 2112:24
36 Morgan Barron 000 -2 10.03 2011:26
14 Gustav Nyquist 000 -1 00.00 1110:10
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 000 -1 30.00 3123:58
8 Logan Stanley 000 -1 20.00 6220:07
54 Dylan Samberg 000 -1 10.01 1218:18
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 -1 30.01 3118:00
6 Colin Miller 000 -1 20.02 3216:59
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Thomas Milic 34430 .882 2.97 -1.03

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 011 +2 30.00 0019:27
24 Seth Jarvis 303 +2 81.26 1018:59
37 Andrei Svechnikov 022 +2 50.35 2017:47
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 000 0 50.03 0016:15
71 Taylor Hall 000 +1 20.00 0014:52
53 Jackson Blake 000 0 10.06 0114:44
22 Logan Stankoven 000 0 40.11 1114:14
48 Jordan Martinook 101 +1 60.76 0114:02
77 Mark Jankowski 011 +1 30.13 0013:56
50 Eric Robinson 011 +1 30.11 1113:38
28 William Carrier 000 +1 20.08 4110:26
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 011 +1 70.16 0224:28
26 Sean Walker 000 +1 10.00 1222:19
4 Shayne Gostisbehere 022 +2 60.13 0221:27
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 +2 30.03 0117:31
21 Alexander Nikishin 101 +1 70.13 1216:38
64 Joel Nystrom 000 +1 40.07 0013:20
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Brandon Bussi 13112 .923 1.66 +0.66

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Cole Perfetti C +0.94 0.00 +0.36 +0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:15
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +0.38 +0.70 0.00 -0.48 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 18:05
70 Tanner Pearson L +0.27 0.00 +0.04 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:24
7 Vladislav Namestnikov C +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.30 0.00 -0.05 0.00 — 12:40
55 Mark Scheifele C +0.16 +0.75 +0.14 -0.64 0.00 -0.02 -0.08 — 21:00
19 Jonathan Toews C 0.00 0.00 +0.08 -0.13 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 12:38
2 Dylan DeMelo D -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.20 -0.30 0.00 +0.03 — 18:00
64 Logan Stanley D -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:07
6 Colin Miller D -0.27 0.00 +0.01 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:59
36 Morgan Barron C -0.33 0.00 +0.02 -0.46 0.00 +0.07 +0.04 — 11:26
44 Josh Morrissey D -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:58
81 Kyle Connor L -0.35 0.00 +0.21 -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:31
14 Gustav Nyquist R -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.55 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 10:10
54 Dylan Samberg D -0.93 0.00 +0.01 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:18
17 Adam Lowry C -0.94 0.00 +0.06 -1.05 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 13:10
62 Nino Niederreiter R -1.05 0.00 +0.05 -1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:38
32 Thomas Milic G -1.18 0.00 — — -0.15 — — -1.03 58:38
9 Alex Iafallo L -1.41 0.00 0.00 -1.40 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:46
57 Elias Salomonsson D -1.68 0.00 +0.09 -1.92 0.00 0.00 +0.16 — 19:17

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Seth Jarvis C +3.94 +2.25 +0.82 +0.74 +0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 18:59
48 Jordan Martinook L +2.50 +0.75 +0.49 +1.23 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:02
77 Mark Jankowski L +2.22 +0.70 +0.09 +1.47 0.00 -0.05 +0.02 — 13:56
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +2.02 +1.25 +0.23 +0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:47
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D +1.90 +1.25 +0.09 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 21:28
21 Alexander Nikishin D +1.69 +0.75 +0.08 +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:38
28 William Carrier L +1.64 0.00 +0.05 +1.56 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 10:26
19 K'Andre Miller D +1.31 +0.70 +0.10 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 24:28
64 Joel Nystrom D +1.11 0.00 +0.05 +1.05 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:20
20 Sebastian Aho C +1.07 +0.55 0.00 +0.55 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 19:27
46 Justin Robidas C +0.69 +0.70 +0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:57
50 Eric Robinson L +0.67 +0.55 +0.07 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:38
32 Brandon Bussi G +0.66 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.66 60:00
26 Sean Walker D +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.36 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 22:18
5 Jalen Chatfield D +0.56 0.00 +0.02 +0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:31
71 Taylor Hall L +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:52
22 Logan Stankoven C -0.05 0.00 +0.07 -0.22 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 14:14
53 Jackson Blake R -0.26 0.00 +0.04 -0.17 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 14:44
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L -0.39 0.00 +0.02 -0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:15

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.