Friday, November 28, 2025
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
PIT 45%Deserve to win 55% CBJ
PIT CBJ
3.04 Expected goals 3.36
4 Goals (no shootout) 3
2.71 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.70
56 Shot attempts 63
41 Unblocked attempts 41
24 Shots on goal 29
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
3rd Period
18:41
CBJ
Deserve to win
Deserve to win · CBJ takes the lead, 60–40%
PIT had led since 8:10 of the 1st, by as much as 68%
Shot map
PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → CBJ shoots
Isac Lundeström: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:30)
Ivan Provorov: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:33)
Luca Pinelli: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:20)
Damon Severson: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 1:26)
Dmitri Voronkov: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 2:11)
Ivan Provorov: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:16)
Sean Monahan: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:49)
Ryan Graves: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:21)
Erik Karlsson: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:32)
Bryan Rust: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 6:01)
Bryan Rust: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 6:03)
Connor Dewar: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 7:46)
Joona Koppanen: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:52)
Connor Dewar: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 8:10)
Kevin Hayes: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:26)
Bryan Rust: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:36)
Luca Pinelli: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:44)
Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:07)
Luca Pinelli: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 10:22)
Joona Koppanen: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:26)
Kris Letang: deflected, 166 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:10)
Brendan Smith: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:37)
Parker Wotherspoon: slap, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:19)
Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:45)
Adam Fantilli: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:37)
Cole Sillinger: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:59)
Kent Johnson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:25)
Bryan Rust: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:16)
Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:14)
Anthony Mantha: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 4:30)
Anthony Mantha: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 4:55)
Kent Johnson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:05)
Egor Chinakhov: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 5:48)
Luca Pinelli: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:40)
Kevin Hayes: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 6:55)
Dmitri Voronkov: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:44)
Damon Severson: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:00)
Damon Severson: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 8:15)
Zach Werenski: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:59)
Tommy Novak: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:07)
Ryan Shea: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:25)
Zach Werenski: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:29)
Ivan Provorov: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:52)
Brendan Smith: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:58)
Dante Fabbro: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:10)
Joona Koppanen: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:21)
Ryan Graves: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:25)
Bryan Rust: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 15:25)
Erik Karlsson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:07)
Charlie Coyle: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:25)
Bryan Rust: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 17:44)
Danton Heinen: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:52)
Ivan Provorov: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:14)
Cole Sillinger: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:26)
Miles Wood: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:25)
Mathew Dumba: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:10)
Kevin Hayes: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:11)
Sidney Crosby: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:14)
Isac Lundeström: snap, 4 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 4:40)
Isac Lundeström: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:40)
Dante Fabbro: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:44)
Dante Fabbro: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:48)
Dante Fabbro: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:27)
Blake Lizotte: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:40)
Kevin Hayes: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:03)
Mathew Dumba: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:18)
Miles Wood: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 12:48)
Charlie Coyle: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 12:50)
Bryan Rust: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:06)
Ryan Graves: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:20)
Miles Wood: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:34)
Sean Monahan: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:40)
Sean Monahan: slap, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:41)
Kris Letang: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:45)
Kris Letang: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:52)
Sidney Crosby: GOAL, tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 6:10)
Sean Monahan: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.41 (P1 13:40)
Brendan Gaunce: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:51)
Zach Werenski: GOAL, slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:56)
Bryan Rust: GOAL, snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:13)
Sidney Crosby: GOAL, snap, 8 ft, xG 0.31 (P3 8:28)
Kris Letang: GOAL, snap, 16 ft, xG 0.23 (OT 0:59)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Pittsburgh Penguins
Columbus Blue Jackets
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Jet Greaves
24 4 20
.833
3.04
-0.96
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
87 Sidney Crosby C
+2.68
+1.50
+0.29
+0.90
0.00
+0.02
-0.02
—
19:10
58 Kris Letang D
+2.19
+1.45
+0.19
+0.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
22:33
17 Bryan Rust R
+1.95
+0.75
+0.62
+0.59
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
20:07
18 Tommy Novak C
+1.29
+1.40
+0.02
-0.14
0.00
-0.01
+0.02
—
16:42
13 Kevin Hayes R
+0.76
0.00
+0.22
+0.56
0.00
+0.02
-0.04
—
18:06
28 Parker Wotherspoon D
+0.57
+0.55
+0.01
-0.25
+0.15
0.00
+0.11
—
23:14
27 Ryan Graves D
+0.54
0.00
+0.03
+0.36
0.00
0.00
+0.15
—
15:19
65 Erik Karlsson D
+0.45
+0.70
+0.04
-0.30
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
22:13
19 Connor Dewar C
+0.37
0.00
+0.25
+0.07
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
12:16
35 Tristan Jarry G
+0.36
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.36
59:36
5 Ryan Shea D
+0.31
0.00
+0.01
+0.13
0.00
0.00
+0.17
—
19:41
41 Ville Koivunen R
+0.29
0.00
0.00
+0.31
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
11:40
15 Joona Koppanen L
+0.05
0.00
+0.06
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
12:24
43 Danton Heinen L
+0.05
0.00
+0.04
+0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
10:23
39 Anthony Mantha R
-0.17
0.00
+0.18
-0.40
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
17:57
24 Mathew Dumba D
-0.20
0.00
+0.01
-0.36
0.00
0.00
+0.15
—
14:14
46 Blake Lizotte C
-0.25
0.00
+0.01
-0.30
0.00
+0.02
+0.02
—
13:18
81 Ben Kindel C
-0.41
0.00
0.00
-0.52
0.00
-0.04
+0.15
—
12:17
71 Evgeni Malkin C
-0.42
0.00
+0.03
-0.36
-0.15
0.00
+0.06
—
18:46
Columbus Blue Jackets
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
23 Sean Monahan C
+2.50
+0.75
+0.42
+1.27
0.00
+0.06
0.00
—
19:01
78 Damon Severson D
+1.91
+0.55
+0.21
+1.11
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
19:07
53 Luca Pinelli C
+1.45
0.00
+0.14
+1.35
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
18:00
3 Charlie Coyle C
+1.02
+0.70
+0.25
-0.08
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
18:30
7 Brendan Smith D
+0.89
+0.70
+0.03
+0.13
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
13:54
4 Cole Sillinger C
+0.88
0.00
+0.06
+0.83
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
18:01
8 Zach Werenski D
+0.82
+1.30
+0.08
-0.74
+0.15
0.00
+0.02
—
26:06
5 Denton Mateychuk D
+0.37
0.00
0.00
+0.20
0.00
0.00
+0.17
—
19:13
59 Egor Chinakhov R
+0.27
0.00
+0.11
+0.12
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
9:16
16 Brendan Gaunce C
+0.20
+0.75
+0.06
-0.60
0.00
+0.01
-0.02
—
9:59
11 Miles Wood L
+0.08
+0.70
+0.18
-0.78
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
16:00
15 Dante Fabbro D
-0.08
0.00
+0.09
-0.18
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
16:23
27 Zachary Aston-Reese L
-0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.09
-0.15
+0.01
+0.10
—
7:23
21 Isac Lundeström C
-0.23
0.00
+0.21
-0.44
0.00
-0.04
+0.05
—
16:02
10 Dmitri Voronkov L
-0.39
0.00
+0.12
-0.48
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
—
14:42
91 Kent Johnson C
-0.69
0.00
+0.11
-0.65
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
12:46
9 Ivan Provorov D
-0.80
0.00
+0.04
-0.87
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
26:29
19 Adam Fantilli C
-0.90
0.00
+0.07
-0.96
0.00
-0.02
+0.01
—
18:08
73 Jet Greaves G
-0.96
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-0.96
60:56
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.