Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 7–2 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Saturday, November 29, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	2	3	2	7	23
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	1	0	1	2	35

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:46	TOR	Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4) Matthew Knies (19), Auston Matthews (7) · snap xG 0.20	1–0 ▶
8:14	PIT	Ben Kindel (6)PP Sidney Crosby (11), Bryan Rust (11) · bat xG 0.09	1–1 ▶
11:06	TOR	Easton Cowan (3) William Nylander (21), Morgan Rielly (15) · slap xG 0.08	2–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:24	TOR	Bobby McMann (6) Morgan Rielly (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (16) · tip-in xG 0.08	3–1 ▶
4:53	TOR	Dakota Joshua (3) Nicolas Roy (5), Troy Stecher (2) · wrist xG 0.17	4–1 ▶
13:58	TOR	Nicolas Roy (2)PP Max Domi (4), Bobby McMann (4) · snap xG 0.29	5–1 ▶
3rd Period
4:37	PIT	Sidney Crosby (16) Kevin Hayes (2) · backhand xG 0.14	5–2 ▶
7:14	TOR	Auston Matthews (10) Max Domi (5), Matthew Knies (20) · snap xG 0.04	6–2 ▶
13:16	TOR	Nick Robertson (6) Unassisted · snap xG 0.25	7–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 42%Deserve to win58% PIT

TOR		PIT
2.86	Expected goals	3.39
7	Goals (no shootout)	2
1.89	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.79
44	Shot attempts	86
31	Unblocked attempts	58
23	Shots on goal	35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
2:24	PIT	Goalie	Goalie · Silovs −2.1 goals saved 3 goals on 0.94 xG, 9 shots on goal
4:53	PIT	Goalie change	Goalie change · Jarry in for Silovs 4:53 of the 2nd; Silovs had allowed 4 goals on 10 shots (1.11 xG)
3rd Period
0:19	TOR	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 60–40% PIT had led since 11:26 of the 2nd, by as much as 62%
1:40	TOR	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 1.28–0.25 In xG over 10 minutes, 11:40 of the 2nd to 1:40 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
14:40	TOR	No shift	No shift · Ekman-Larsson, 12:56 on the bench No shift after 4:37 of the 3rd; 22 shifts (13:56) before that

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
89	Matthew Knies	0	2	2	0	2	0.32	1	1	20:17
34	Auston Matthews	1	1	2	+1	8	0.35	0	2	19:47
91	John Tavares	0	0	0	+1	8	0.47	0	0	19:34
88	William Nylander	0	1	1	+2	2	0.07	0	0	19:17
53	Easton Cowan	1	0	1	+2	3	0.15	1	1	18:44
10	Nicolas Roy	1	1	2	+2	4	0.29	2	1	15:28
11	Max Domi	0	2	2	0	1	0.00	0	1	15:14
81	Dakota Joshua	1	0	1	+2	2	0.28	7	2	12:51
74	Bobby McMann	1	1	2	+2	6	0.42	0	1	11:50
21	Scott Laughton	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	10:47
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	2	10:40
14	Nick Robertson	1	0	1	+1	1	0.25	0	1	10:02
Defense
28	Troy Stecher	0	1	1	+3	1	0.00	0	1	23:52
22	Jake McCabe	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	4	21:36
44	Morgan Rielly	0	2	2	+3	2	0.00	0	2	21:10
51	Philippe Myers	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	2	2	15:52
36	Dakota Mermis	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	4	15:10
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	1	1	2	+2	2	0.24	0	0	13:56

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Dennis Hildeby	35	2	33	.943	3.39	+1.39

Pittsburgh Penguins

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
17	Bryan Rust	0	1	1	-2	7	0.37	0	0	18:54
87	Sidney Crosby	1	1	2	-1	4	0.26	0	0	15:54
46	Blake Lizotte	0	0	0	-1	5	0.32	1	0	15:25
13	Kevin Hayes	0	1	1	-2	4	0.32	1	1	15:18
81	Ben Kindel	1	0	1	0	7	0.50	0	1	15:08
71	Evgeni Malkin	0	0	0	-3	10	0.33	0	0	15:07
58	Danton Heinen	0	0	0	0	5	0.23	1	0	14:45
18	Tommy Novak	0	0	0	-2	7	0.23	0	0	13:54
39	Anthony Mantha	0	0	0	-1	5	0.19	0	0	13:50
41	Ville Koivunen	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	0	0	13:27
19	Connor Dewar	0	0	0	-1	3	0.04	0	0	13:03
Defense
58	Kris Letang	0	0	0	-1	3	0.22	1	2	22:44
65	Erik Karlsson	0	0	0	-3	5	0.08	1	1	22:06
29	Parker Wotherspoon	0	0	0	-3	4	0.13	7	2	20:24
6	Ryan Shea	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	2	1	20:19

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Arturs Silovs	10	4	6	.600	1.11	-2.89
Tristan Jarry	13	3	10	.769	1.76	-1.24

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
74 Bobby McMann C	+2.08	+1.30	+0.27	+0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:50
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	+1.93	+1.30	+0.15	+0.33	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:56
34 Auston Matthews C	+1.81	+1.30	+0.23	+0.23	0.00	-0.05	+0.10	—	19:47
55 Nicolas Roy C	+1.71	+1.45	+0.19	+0.03	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	15:28
28 Troy Stecher D	+1.64	+0.55	0.00	+1.06	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	23:52
23 Matthew Knies L	+1.55	+1.25	+0.21	-0.08	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	20:17
81 Dakota Joshua C	+1.54	+0.75	+0.18	+0.39	+0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	12:51
44 Morgan Rielly D	+1.51	+1.25	0.00	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	21:10
35 Dennis Hildeby G	+1.39	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.39	59:45
11 Max Domi C	+1.02	+1.40	0.00	-0.24	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	15:14
53 Easton Cowan R	+0.82	+0.75	+0.09	-0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:44
89 Nick Robertson L	+0.76	+0.75	+0.16	-0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	10:02
22 Jake McCabe D	+0.55	0.00	0.00	+0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.14	—	21:36
88 William Nylander R	+0.37	+0.70	+0.04	-0.36	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:17
24 Scott Laughton C	-0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.11	0.00	+0.05	+0.05	—	10:47
18 Steven Lorentz C	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	10:40
91 John Tavares C	-0.29	0.00	+0.31	-0.51	-0.15	+0.06	0.00	—	19:34
51 Philippe Myers D	-0.89	0.00	+0.01	-1.00	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	15:52
36 Dakota Mermis D	-1.44	0.00	0.00	-1.45	-0.15	0.00	+0.16	—	15:10

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
81 Ben Kindel C	+2.27	+0.75	+0.33	+1.00	+0.15	+0.01	+0.03	—	15:08
87 Sidney Crosby C	+1.68	+1.45	+0.17	+0.05	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	15:54
13 Kevin Hayes R	+1.11	+0.70	+0.21	+0.17	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	15:18
5 Ryan Shea D	+0.95	0.00	+0.02	+0.88	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:19
58 Kris Letang D	+0.84	0.00	+0.14	+0.60	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	22:44
43 Danton Heinen L	+0.78	0.00	+0.15	+0.51	+0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	14:45
41 Ville Koivunen R	+0.72	0.00	+0.04	+0.68	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:27
39 Anthony Mantha R	+0.64	0.00	+0.13	+0.53	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:50
18 Tommy Novak C	+0.28	0.00	+0.15	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:54
65 Erik Karlsson D	+0.27	0.00	+0.05	+0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	22:06
17 Bryan Rust R	+0.11	+0.55	+0.24	-0.55	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	18:54
28 Parker Wotherspoon D	+0.09	0.00	+0.09	+0.07	-0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	20:24
71 Evgeni Malkin C	-0.09	0.00	+0.22	-0.47	+0.15	+0.03	-0.02	—	15:07
46 Blake Lizotte C	-0.14	0.00	+0.21	-0.26	0.00	-0.09	0.00	—	15:25
24 Mathew Dumba D	-0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:17
15 Joona Koppanen L	-0.49	0.00	0.00	-0.55	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	13:28
19 Connor Dewar C	-0.63	0.00	+0.03	-0.51	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:03
27 Ryan Graves D	-0.78	0.00	+0.04	-0.87	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:20
35 Tristan Jarry G	-1.24	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.24	35:07
37 Arturs Silovs G	-2.89	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.89	24:37

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.